One of the most stacked positions in the Draft, One could feel that waiting until the middle of the draft will still allow for forgiveness. I tend to disagree. If you have a middle of the round pick, the talent at the first base position needs to be addressed in your lineup. Here are the Fantasy CPR Top 20 First Baseman to start 2009.
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals- Do I even dare say duh? If you are not drafting first, and Pujols is available, then it is an obligation and rule of the fantasy baseball gods to draft Pujols. Does it say enough that he is the only player to hit above .300, score 99 runs, drive in 100 runs and hit 30 bombs in his first eight seasons? No? How about the fact that you can nearly guarantee a .330 average (only two seasons below). King Albert sits at the top yet again.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers- I am falling in love more and more with Cabrera’s bat in his second season in the American League. At 25, it isn’t questionable to think that Cabrera could hit 40 homers. At the least, he matches his production in 2008, which led to 127 RBIs and 37 homers. Another bonus is the fact that Cabrera has played at least 158 games since 2004.
3. Mark Teixeira, Yankees- Big Money means even bigger play right? That should be the case for the new Yankees first baseman in 2009. You got to love the .962 OPS from a year ago, and his splits as a switch hitter are unbelievable. The Yankees should consider sliding him in the third spot in the order. Teixeira hit .366 with 14 homers and 47 RBIs.
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers- After a slow start power wise in 2008, The Prince of Wisconsin slugged 34 Homers and drove in 102 runs, while hitting third or fourth in the Brewers lineup. Consider this; after his slow start, Fielder got hot at the end of May, hitting .277 with 28 home runs, 77 RBIs and a .925 OPS in 106 contests. What makes him so valuable for a powerful first baseman, is the fact that Prince can somehow find a way to pull together a decent average. Now that Fielder shouldn’t miss the filet mignon, 2009 sees the sky as the limit.
5. Lance Berkman, Houston- At 33, Berkman is entering the ‘declining’ years, but he is one of the most consistent at the position. What is disappointing is usually in his career, after a solid .300 plus average, Berkman follows it up with a low .270s average. Since 2006, his numbers have been declining, but his average is what keeps him in the top 5 instead of Ryan Howard. Expect this switch hitter to focus on the left side. Last year 22 of his 29 homers came from the left side.
6. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia-Maybe I am ranking Howard lower than deserved, considering I never draft him, but his drop in average can often kill runs. I also avoid Howard because his hitting is often in spurts, which hurts your team as well. Make no doubt about it though. Ryan Howard is all power all the time. The best slugger in the game, and he does have a career .279 average. I just don’t think he will rebound in average during the 2009 season.
7. Kevin Youkillis, Boston- Power, Average, On Base Percentage, and OPS for the YOOK were all-time highs in 2008. There is no reason why we shouldn’t continue to see these numbers remain consistent. What is also impressive is that the Red Sox first baseman was able to match his .390 OBP from 2007. And boy does Youkillis love Fenway. 77 of his 115 RBIs came at the expense of Fenway and it’s Green Monster.
8. Justin Morneau, Minnesota- Yet another consistent hitter that seems to only be getting better. Though he saw a slight power shortage in 2008, many forget to note that his gap to gap hitting increased. Morneau hit ten more doubles in 2008, than he has during any season of his career. Not to mention a return to the .300 club for the first time since his breakout 2006 season. Many (including me) would argue that 2008 was Morneau’s best sesaon. He increased his walk total by more than ten, and slimmed his strike outs, while tying the amount of runs he scored in 2006.
9. Joey Votto, Cincinatti-He’s only 25, yet he hit 24 dingers and 84 RBIs for the Reds in 2008. His power numbers should only increase, now that himself and Brandon Phillips are the go to power hitters alongside a younger Jay Bruce. In his rookie year, Votto didnt wear down either, hitting .309 in September. He is a true sleeper that might get lost in the top 10, because his name might night ring a bell to some. You should expect at least a .295 average with 25 bombs and 95 RBIs.
10. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego- This might be Gonzalez’s last year in the top ten, because his average continues to drop, while his strikeouts continue to rise. I don’t think that 36 homers is obtainable in 2009, but his all around solid game. Gonzalez only hit .213 against lefties, including a horrible .287 OBP against lefties.
11. Derrick Lee, Chicago- He averages around 20-22 homers and 85-90 RBIs the last few seasons, and that is what you should expect in 2009. With Lee’s injury history, it is almost certain that he will miss games, but if he doesn’t, he could get back to his 46 homer performance in 2005. The bonus is that Lee generally starts hot. Last year he hit 8 of his 20 homers in April.
12. Carlos Pena, Tampa- Like most corner infielders, his average will hurt you (.247 in 2008). But his power number remain constant year in and year out. He probably wont smash 31 homers, or save your fantasy season like he did late in 2008 (.978 second half OPS). In that lineup though, it is really safe to project 20 homers and 100 RBIs. Pena is going in the late seventh in ten team leagues. Not a bad spot to take him. He has potential to be a top 50 player.
13. Chris Davis, Texas- Want your version of Adam Dunn at first base? How about Chris Davis? Davis has shown a lot of potential in only a select amount of time in the league. Fantasy Analysts have him projected for anywhere in between 30 and 40 homers in 2009. All I have to say to that is why not? Davis hits righties just as good as lefties. Beyond his lack of expierience, Davis is a bit scary because of his lack of consistency. In August, Davis hit a major slump, hitting .228 with 34 of his 88 strikeouts coming in that month. The good news is that he drove in his most amount of runs in August (20) despite the slump. Davis is a good backup to take, because he can play first or third.
14. Garrett Atkins, Colorado- Atkins is almost a spitting image of Davis, except we know he can produce at a regular rate. The only question is if he is going to get into the lineup regularly with fan favorite Todd Helton at first, and upcoming Ian Stewart at third base. If he plays regularly, he should produce 20 homers and 100 RBIs. Surprisingly Atkins hit more home runs on the road than at Coors last season. Just that simple fact so hint that we could see more homer production if he is in the lineup everyday.
15. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh- What LaRoche brings to the table is power and power alone. Although he did hit .270 in 2008, LaRoche often starts off slow and is always an injury risk. If he starts on the right page, which could happen with another year of experience for Ryan Doumit and Nate McClouth who will hit in front of him, LaRoche could be a real sleeper. There will be leagues where LaRoche gets forgotten. That’s ok. Wait until mid June, and snatch him up. He is bound to be a top ten first baseman by the end of July.
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets- Speaking of slow starts, where in the heck did Carlos Delgado come from in 2008? At points it was thought the Mets were going to give up on him and let him go. But then he blasted 21 of his 38 homers post all-star break. What is amazing is that Delgado posted a .918 OPS against righties after hitting .192 in April. What I love about Delgado as well, is that he is a career .930 OPS guy. At 36, it is unknown if Delgado will match his 2008 and 2006 numbers as a met, or his weak 2007 season totals. Either way, if you decide to pull the trigger, be patient with Delgado.
17. James Loney, Los Angeles- Hardly any power. As a matter of fact, I doubt he gets to 20 homers in 2009. But what Loney Brings is a great presence at the bottom of the lineup, that helps your average. He will most likely drive in 85-90 RBIs, which isn’t bad out of the utility spot or as your backup first baseman.
18. Jorge Cantu, Florida- More power at the bottom of the Rankings. Cantu slugged an unexpected 29 homers last season. Despite slugging 95 RBIs home, Cantu finds himself fighting for playing time alongside Dallas McPherson and Gaby Sanchez. Cantu, much like Davis, Atkins and say a Carlos Guillen are great to have in the bench role, because they can play first or third base. One thing is certain. When he gets over 150 games played, he puts up solid numbers (see 2005).
19. Pedro Sandoval, San Fransisco- Better get him now! Everyone is falling in love with Sandoval, who can play at multiple positions in 2009. Personally, after 40+ games I am not convinced. He doesn’t have experience in the majors or against top notch minor league talent, and he will post a bad OBP. There is some talent there, and if he does keep on pace according to last year’s performance, He’ll drive in close to 90 runners.
20. Mike Jacobs, Kansas City- I love Mike Jacobs solely on his power potential. In Kansas City, he will face far less talented pitching, while getting protected by upcoming Billy Butler, veteran Jose Guillen and Alex Gordon. If Jacobs can figure out left handed pitching just a bit better (.218 with only 7/32 homers) this guy has 40/120 potential.
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