Every season, just outside of a week to go until opening day, the brain begins to work (yes it takes that long). I begin to think, hmm who are the guys that I can target in mid season, that have a chance to make an impact on the mound. Whether it be through saves, holds, strikeouts, or wins there are always guys in the back of your mind. And then there are the guys you don’t know about.
According to Wikipedia:
A hold (abbreviated HLD or H) is awarded to a relief pitcher who:
- enters the game in a save situation; that is, one of the following three conditions applies:
- his team has a lead of no more than three runs, and there are at least three outs remaining
- the potential tying run is either on base, at bat, or on deck
- there are at least three innings remaining in the game
- records at least one out;
- leaves the game without his team having relinquished the lead at any point.
When it comes to holds, there is more to gauging than ERA, WHIP and Strikeouts. There are often arms that are not even primary setup guys that grab holds.
Exhibit A is the young Taylor Buchholz in Colorado. He had 21 holds in 2008, one of the best in the league. But, with opportunity came disaster. With runners in scoring position in 2008, Buchholz gave up 11 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched. Not a good guy to “hold” close ball games.
Exhibit B is the veteran Octavio Dotel. Like Buchholz, he held 21 games, but did it at a better consistency rate. With runners in scoring position, Dotel held a respectable 3.80 ERA, allowing 10 runners to score in 23 innings pitched. Interestingly enough, you can tell his value in holds situations through his situation pitching. In 2008, Dotel only pitched 14 of his 57 innings with nobody on and nobody out. It’s the little things you have to watch, in order to be successful. Here are some ‘little’ guys that could help you with holds.
Eddie Guardado- You betcha, the guy who once shut down games for the Minnesota Twins has some fantasy value. Fast Eddie put together a nice campaign with the Rangers in 2008, accumulating 23 holds and holding hitters to a .220 average while with Texas. The only question is if he can stay healthy and remain on the roster. He will hurt your ERA in the short run, but watch Guardado on the wire in all leagues. He isn’t in talks of being the closer, but if Frank Fransisco doesn’t pan out and C.J. Wilson can’t shut the door, it could be Eddie’s job to lose.
Ron Mahay, Kansas City- This guy is buried in the back end of the Royal bullpen, but has major potential to collect holds. Despite being behind Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez in the bullpen, Mahay tallied 21 holds despite giving up 89 total bases in 64.2 innings pitched. Being behind veterans Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta and Juan Cruz wont garner him any save opportunities, but he does have good win potential as well, being one of the first to come out of the pen.
Matt Thornton, Chicago- Where on heaven’s name did this kid come from? Ok the former Grand Valley State scholarship basketball player is 33, but he can hit 96 on the gun, and early was Ozzie Guillen’s most reliable bullpen arm. Thornton had 17 holds in 2008, alongside 5 saves in 19 opportunities. Despite veterans Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel, Thornton seems to be the first option to close games if Bobby Jenks has a heart attack (I mean injures himself).
Chad Durbin, Philadelphia- Durbin was a quiet, yet key part of a successful world champion bullpen in 2008. After being a starter, the Phillies converted him back to the bullpen, where he had a solid 2.87 ERA in over 80 innings pitched. Not necessarily a strikeout pitcher, Durbin held hittiers to a .254 average. Beyond Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge, Durbin could be a guy to watch for holds and possibly saves in the middle of the year. We all know Brad Lidge’s injury history.
Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers- Kuo is the answer at closer if Jonathon Broxton goes down. He had 96 strikeouts in 80 innings last season, while holding batters to a .204 average. Kuo is one of those lefties that could get a lot of holds because of the situations he enters the game. He was given 5 save opportunities last season, while holding 12 games. I think we will see those numbers increase without the likes of Scott Proctor and Takashi Saito. He will also fill into Joe Beimel’s spot in the pen, meaning more chances for holds.
Takashi Saito, Boston- Speaking of Los Angeles, the new Red Sox set up man could be a key component to winning the holds game in 2009. With an amazing 11 k/9 rate. He is pitching with a partially torn ligament, so watch for that this season, but alongside Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterson, this might be the best bullpen in the game.
Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay- His teammate Dan Wheeler was the premiere holds guy last year, holding hitters to a .183 average. Balfour held hitters to a .143 average, while accumulating a modest fourteen holds. It’s hard to believe a pitcher that once was nicknamed “ball four” is now striking out 12 batters per nine and with runners in scoring position in 2008, he responded with 23 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched. Think about it. This bullpen is one of the most injury prone with veterans Jason Isranhausen and Troy Percival leading the way. Also keep an eye on lefty J.P Howell who got four key holds this postseason for the defending A.L. champions.
Brad Ziegler, Oakland- In case you didn’t see the clinic hit put on hitters last year, Ziegler is already in a prime position to take over the closer role because Joey Devine is already injury plagued this spring. He isn’t going to strike out a bunch, but he finds other ways to win games while pitching. This will definitely help you pick up holds. Bob Geren says no matter what, the two will split closer duties, but that is beside the point. In most outings last season, Ziegler went multiple innings, meaning his chance of picking up a win or hold is pretty high.
Jenson Lewis, Cleveland- Remember when C.C. left, and everyone thought, “They can’t play .500 ball now, just shut it down for the Indians.” Well, Lewis is one of the many reasons, alongside the rest of his bullpen mates that the Indians were able to finish .500. A closer for part of the year last season, Lewis only blew one of his fourteen chances. One thing to watch is his whip. Last season it got up to 1.44, which is quite high for a reliever.
Jesse Carlton, Toronto- Carlson picked up two saves in just as many chances in 2008 while eating 60 innings for the Blue Jays. Nineteen holds last season, while maintaining a solid 8.25 k/9. With B.J. Ryan having so many arm problems in the past, you never know what could happen across the border. Carlton is a relatively young arm, who held hitters to a .193 average in his rookie campaign. At 29 years old, Carlton is someone to watch in that pen because other arms are aging (Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Jason Frasor).
Garret Mock, Washington- Mock is someone to watch, simply because he is one of the few pitchers in the capital with any talent. Mock (don’t make fun of him, ok?) held hitters to a .239 average. Here is the bonus with honing in on Mock. If he pitches extremely well, he could work his way into the rotation. If not, then he could be a Jon Rauch type, grabbing you a couple holds on the way.
Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs- Early in his baseball career, it was thought Samardzija’s delivery was best suited to be a reliever or a closer. The former Notre Dame receiver has struggled this spring as a starter, so that could ultimately call for a switch back to the pen. A 8.13 k/9 last season for the Cubs in a middle relief role is respectable. Here is what I love-He didn’t give up a homer in relief with the Cubs last season. This could be an off-year, where he remains in AAA, but eventually he will help this team try not to choke in it’s playoff run.
The Rookie Sensations:
No, there are no Joba Chamberlains or David Prices of the playoffs to look out for this season, but here are some names to watch.
Ryan Perry, Detroit- Cannon. 100 M.P.H. of pure speed. The worst part is the fastball isn’t flat, and he has a decent slider and change to boot. Perry went until late March without allowing a run. He could be a lock to make the Tiger bullpen, seeing that Joel Zumaya is heading to the D.L. while Freddy Dolsi has been sent to AAA Toledo.
Daniel Bard, Boston- Is it fair that Boston has more top notch farm hands than all of the rest of Major League Baseball put together? Bard hits 100 on the radar gun as well, and according to one scout, Bard has the best fastball he has ever seen. Bard will start in AAA, but if Saito’s elbow can’t hold up, or if other injuries ensue, Bard could be the go to guy by mid season.
Bobby Parnell, New York Mets- Parnell had a decent spring, and hit 96 on the gun. Behind Putz and K-Rod, the Mets are weak after the releasing of Duaner Sanchez and with the loss of Billy Wagner to injury and Aaron Heilman to free agency.
Daniel Schlereth, Arizona- Part of a trio at the University of Arizona, that included 2008 Detroit Tiger first rounder Ryan Perry and current top 100 prospect Jason Stoffel, Schlereth brings an exploding fastball to the table, backed up by a power curve that is probably his best pitch. He has the makeup to be a setup or closer in the majors, and with Arizona’s closing situation being cloudy Schlereth could have a big impact late in the season, or in 2010 for keeper league owners.
Kam Mickolio, Baltimore- If you didn’t catch this kid in August, you really missed out. His power pitches show he has the power and command to be a true major league closer. His fastball can hit 96 and will often, while when he is on, his slider has really good bite. It will be tempting for the Orioles to head north without Mickolio. His command is all over the place, but with Chris Ray’s injury history and George Sherill’s second half last year, Mickolio is someone to watch.
Joshua Fields, Seattle- He just signed with the team in February, and he already has the best fastball and best curve in the system. The closing situation is really wacky in Seattle, especially with the commitment of Brandon Morrow as a starter. If David Aardsma wins out the job, I have a feeling that Fields could be rushed to the majors by the all-star break. Yet again, Jack Z and Co. are not in any hurry in rebuilding this squad.
Jose Ceda, Florida- Ceda is straight from the obvious department. Something about Ceda doesn’t sit right with me, especially considering that the Cubs refused to trade for all-star second baseman Brian Roberts, because the Orioles wanted a then younger Ceda. Then the Cubs trade him to the Marlins for an injury prone reliever who might have some upside? Either way Ceda was in the running for the closers job, and could have it by the end of 2009.
The Big Boys:
Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angeles- Shields has been the king of the holds game since 2006 when he led the league with 31 holds. His numbers are on the decline, and without K-Rod, there is really no need for a Shield (haha get it?). Shields pitched the least amount of innings since 2002, and a little guy with a mighty fastball named Jason Arredondo is making the move to take Shields holds right from him.
Carlos Marmol, Chicago- Now that he has lost the closer role (If you are a Cubs fan, I am so sorry) Marmol becomes by favorite as the first holds artist off the board. He pitched well in the World Baseball Classic, but struggled in camp. Lou Pinella has always loved him in this role, and I do not blame him. 11.75 K/9, 30 holds, and a .135 opponents average… You would think he would be optimized as the closer, but who knows. The bonus about taking him is you figure he could eventually work his way into the ninth inning role.
Rafael Perez, Indians- Perez had an off-year in 2008, but got back to the top of the holds mountain, but grabbing 25 holds. A .234 average against hitters was respectable, and he maintained great control, while striking out a fair amount of hitters. The downside of drafting or picking up Perez for holds is he probably won’t get a chance to close. In 9 chances to close out ball games in his career, Perez only has saved 3 successfully.
J.C. Romero- Must have been the ‘roids man. Romero has to sit out the first 50 games for testing positive. I think it will effect his value throughout the first season. He did have 24 holds last season for the world champions.
Jesse Crain, Minnesota- I have shown my love for Crain many a times, and I think he has the stuff to close. He had 17 holds in 2008, but he doesn’t strike out many hitters, or shut them down as say a Joe Nathan.
J.J. Putz, New York Mets- A new career as a setup man for the former Michigan star and breakout Mariners closer could be something to target in auction, NL only and holds leagues. In 2005, Putz had a solid 21 holds for the Mariners, so this will not be a new situation. Despite his struggles in 2008, Putz had the second highest K/9 in his career. The key to Putz’s success is cutting down on the free passes. His walk rate of .70 per nine in 2007 had a lot to do with his extreme success.
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FanSided
Zach Thompson
