Kevin Gregg isn’t going to hold up. To be quite frank, Carlos Villanueva has a better shot at being a full season closer. The Cubs are in a must win time in their franchise. Jim Hendry has built a must win squad, that has all the studs to make it to the World Series; The Whole Enchilada. But to get to the big dance, it’s going to take a realigning of that bullpen.
For many fans and fantasy nuts alike, it was shocking to hear that the Cubs would deal 21 year old Jose Ceda, a pitcher who was worth more than a throw in for second baseman Brian Roberts to the Marlins for Kevin Gregg. Granted, Gregg does have more than 60 major league saves, It was the hope that Carlos Marmol would close ball games. But that hasn’t been the case, not yet anyway.
As the first week unfolds, it has become apparent that Gregg doesn’t have the skill set to be a closer. It is early in the season, but pitch selection and hit-ability has always been a problem for Gregg. In 2008 he gave up 33 earned runs, compared to 32 saves. In 2007, it was the same story. The then Marlins closer gave up 26 earned runs compared to 29 saves. The predecessor to Kerry Wood had a worse save percentage in 2008 (79%) than the Cub fan favorite (85%). Lou Piniella has always loved his best bullpen arm in the eighth inning. My fantasy baseball sense is tingling! Carlos Marmol is going to be the guy sooner, rather than later.
When looking at the numbers, it is obvious that Marmol is the more dominating pitcher. In 2008, Marmol struck out batters at an alarming 11.7 k/9 rate. He held hitters to an astonishing .133 average, despite allowing four homers.
When it came down to the wire, It was Marmol who put together the better numbers. In August last season Gregg broke down, allowing hitters to bolster a .283 average against him. 14 of his 26 runs given up during the year came in the second to last month of the season. In 18 innings pitched with runners in scoring position, Gregg gave up 16 hits and 20 runs.
Meanwhile, Marmol held hitters to reidcilous numbers in deep counts. After 2-2 counts, Marmol struck out 50 in just 28 innings pitched in that situation. In 3-2 counts, when it is essential to finish batters, Marmol struck out 24 in 14.2 innings, while giving up zero runs.
It’s these numbers that have me wondering why many analysts believe that Kevin Gregg is going to be around long enough to save 30 games. His knee isn’t anywhere close to 100%. It is weak enough to the extent that once Big Lou calls him to warm up, Gregg has to be used. His knee isn’t strong enough to warm up twice in a ballgame.
Beyond all the numbers, it is obvious when watching the Cubs bullpen in action. Anytime Marmol enters the game you can feel it. He just has the big out pitch. His slider and fastball are electric. When he enters that game, It reminds you of when the likes of K-Rod, Rivera and Joakim Soria enter the ballgame. The moment that Gregg blows two or three straight saves is the moment that Chicago errupts. I understand that it is early in the season, but look at the product on the field. In the ninth inning, you want your best arm in the game. You want a shutdown reliever, and that is what Marmol is.
Marmol is still available in 20% of ESPN leagues. For comparison, current Detroit Tiger closer Fernando Rodney is owned in 70% of leagues. If you have a shot at him, target him and get ready for him to take over the closer job by mid May.
FanSided
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