Michael "The Burned Out" Turner?

Atlanta Falcons fans and Fantasy owners alike loved what Michael Turner brought to the field. How couldn’t you? He gained 4.5 yards per carry. His 1,699 total rushing yards was second in the league to the unstoppable man in purple. It all started in week one against the Lions and throughout the year he remained consistent. Only once did he rush for less than 50 yards. He went over the century mark eight times. The Atlanta Falcons depended on him in the late months of the season, when Turner gained more rushing yards in November and December, than he did in September and October.

Let’s just put it this way. A man who was once best known as LT’s backup in San Diego, has now become the leader of the flock in Atlanta. Despite having a solid air attack, that now includes Tony Gonzalez, the name of the game is still possesion. If healthy, Turner is going to see the carries. The question is, will he be able to handle it. Fantasy Football history says no.

Since 2004, a little jinx on running backs known as “The Curse of 370″ has existed. Created by Football Outsiders, the curse of 370 is simply states that, “Running Backs who carry the ball over 370 times in a season will see a drop in performance in the next season.” According to Tristan Cockroft of ESPN.com:

In the history of the NFL, 27 running backs have amassed 370 or more carries in a season … and all but one of them declined in terms of total fantasy points the next year. (That one, LaDainian Tomlinson, somehow escaped the clutches of the curse despite 372 rushing attempts in 2002.)

We saw the effect 370+ hand-offs had on Larry Johnson in 2007. He was the Chiefs (and the Dexter’ s Domination fantasy team’s) workhorse. He accumulated 317 fantasy points in 2006. What did he do in 2007? Just half of that production. Maybe the tread on the tires was a bit worn down. Maybe the engine needed an oil change. In some cases, as you will see in the chart below, the engine was completely blown. So when asking if Michael Turner, who carried the ball 376 times in 2009 will have a drop in fantasy value, I think that the Falcons star is just a different case.

Though fantasy owners shouldn’t go into their draft thinking Turner will repeat a 2009 season, they shouldn’t expect a full out blitz from the curse of 370. Turner will still get his 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. With management stating that backup Jerious Norwood will get more carries under center, Turner might miss out on some scoring oppurtunities, but let’s be straightforward here. Turner is very young, both in real life and on the football field. The Falcons will depend on his success to make another run at the playoffs. If Matt Ryan has a sophomore slump and Roddy White returns to his form in the past, then Turner is the only wheels to move deep and quickly down field. Some are high on Turner in his second full season as a starting running back, and some aren’t.

I find myself stuck in the middle. My advice would be to slot him for a round or pick later than you might have taken him. If you fall in a situation where none of the top running backs beyond Turner is on the board, then pull the trigger. You have to remember though that the defenses in the NFC South. Julius Peppers returns to the Panthers, The New Orleans Saints have one of the best corner back corps in the league, and the Chiefs have added Mike Vrabel and Mike Brown.  It will be interesting to see if the Falcons runner can rebound and have a better season. If he does, congratulations if you took him your draft. I might not be as brave.

(Catch Joe Dexter on Fantasy CPR LIVE Tomorrow at 12 PM ET as he continues the talk on Turner. You can also catch the show on the fourth of July on  The Fantasy Sports Channel.)