Running Backs are the keystone to having a solid fantasy football season. Last year, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams and Steve Slaton broke out and saved fantasy football seasons. Now, runners such as Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith and Brandon Jacobs are leading a new core of top notch running backs in the NFL and on the Fantasy Gridiron. One of the biggest keys on draft day is to find a good balance of runners that can catch, score, and just flat out run. Depending on the league you are in, receptions could be a key going into your season. That is taken into effect in our rankings. Though the old school thought of taking three running backs to start your draft is starting to fade, there is no doubt that the running game is what brings you a championship.
Whether you are a Nascar driver, horse jockey, or fantasy football owner–blowing a tire, busting a horseshoe, or losing your best running back will point you in the bottom of the standings. With that being said, here are the top 50 running backs in our eyes going into 2009:
The Big Names-
The number one ranking at the running back position is pretty darn obvious. Though Adrian Peterson averaged just a bit less than a yard per carry in 2008, he was a non-stop, consistent runner to depend on. In PPR leagues, his value drops a bit, considering he lost some elusiveness receiving out of the backfield in 2008, compared to his rookie year.
This is where Matt Forte fits into the rankings. Though it was quite an enternal battle between Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew and Forte, The Bears running back showed last year that he can be a solid force receiving and running. Maurice Jones-Drew has yet to prove that he is a real force. Forte isn’t going to produce 500 yards receiving like many thought he would pre Cutler trade, but he will get in the endzone a handful of times via the air attack. Running wise, with NFC North defenses gaining a step (Green Bay front line, Detroit Linebacking corps) and the implementation of a passing game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Forte rush for less than 1,200 yards. The key to watch is his yards per carry. With a year of experience, the thought would be the hole would open up a bit, but only time will tell.
Another runner to keep your eye on is Deangelo Williams. The Panthers scored 30 rushing touchdowns last year. In total, DeAngelo scored 20 times. In the second half of the season, Williams was downright possesed. 983 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, and two four touchdown games. The guy is only 26 years old. He is quickly falling off the fantasy map, and he is just getting started. Seventh might be just a bit low in the rankings, but with the Carolina offense you never know. If you don’t handcuff Williams with Stewart, then make sure that Williams is going to get the majority of the carries. Touchdown production will drop in 2009, but he is still a top ten draft pick. For the first time in his career, LaDainian Tomlinson falls to the bottom of the top notch runners. This is a guy whose yard per carry average has dropped from 5.2 in 2006, down to 3.8 in 2008. We have talked a bunch about Michael Turner on Fantasy CPR Live and on Fantasy CPR.com. The 370 rule is something that I take seriously, but when you look at Turner’s situation in Atlanta, you have to believe that he will have fantasy value.
Injuries Waiting to Happen-
One of the running backs that I have always loved is Steven Jackson, but health has always been an issue. Jackson missed five games in 2008, and most of 2007 with various pains. This is a guy that if you are willing to take a chance, could provide you the best fantasy numbers of all running backs. The key though is staying healthy. Jackson has a new offensive line in front of him, a new coach that will love to run the ball, and practically no aerial game around him. This is a running back who once caught 90 receptions. In a PPR league, that is irreplaceable. Last year he only brought in 40 catches. 2009 could be another season where Jackson busts out in the air and scores a bunch of touchdowns. Who else is going to score in St. Louis? Nobody if Jackson remains injury prone and out of action.
Brian Westbrook could be on his last leg (literally). His knees and ribs were bother hammered in 2008, but he put together solid numbers yet again. The price for Westbrook, considering the fact that his offensive line is falling apart, his workload has been decreased in the passing game, and newcomer LeSean McCoy has good hands. Putting the numbers together and it seems that if Westbrook does stay on the field, his numbers will drop drastically. This is a guy who had two surgeries in the off-season.
Reggie Bush is supposedly back, but can he stay healthy? We know he can’t go up the middle, but he is a top 5 PPR running back. Since his rookie year, Bush’s legs haven’t been healthy. Meanwhile Brandon Jacobs has no problem plowing and mowing down defenders up the middle. His legs though have been injured in all kinds of ways in a young career. Can Brandon Jacobs really handle more than 200 rushing attempts throughout the year? I don’t think so. He is still someone you should target for touchdowns, but like in the past, you need to handcuff him with another runner in the Giant backfield.
Another runner that could possibly be on his last legs is Clinton Portis. Portis has definitely got to workload in the past, and that is what is scary. If he can get on the field, he will score, because he is the go to guy at the goal line.
Sleeper City-
There are a lot of running backs that could be in the middle rounds, and in your starting three. Kevin Smith is someone that I am really high on in 2009. Rudi Johnson isn’t going to get the carries he did last season. Smith should average four yards per carry, and run for 1200 yards. It isn’t the running game that has me excited though. Smith is one of the best young receivers in the backfield, and Scott Linehan will be running the offense in Detroit. Whippty Doo! The Lions offensive line is a bit improved, and that should be a factor as well.
Pierre Thomas showed last season why he could be an eventual top 10 runner in fantasy. The Guy has averaged close to five yards per carry in his first two season. Thomas is the red zone runner in New Orleans. If anything, ten touchdowns on the ground, and a few in the air. This is a guy that could go in the seventh to tenth round, despite having so much value. Some people think that Thomas is the DeAngelo Williams of 2009. Speaking of DeAngelo Williams, I am a pretty big fan of his running mate Jonathan Stewart. He is going to get in the endzone. nine double digit carry games in 2008, with some potential to catch some passes. Last year he rushed for 836. This year it doesn’t seem those numbers will get any lower.
The Raiders are full of sleepers in 2009. Micheal Bush could be a late swing running back, but the real question is on Darren Mcfadden. If you would of told me that Felix Jones would of had a better rookie season, I might of laughed. Mcfadden did average 4.4 yards per carry last season, despite 113 carries. The Oakland offense is praying that they can muster a decent receiving corps, but when it all comes down to it, Mcfadden is the only option in Oakland.
My favorite “sleeper” in 2009 is Derrick Ward, who will be the top running back in Tampa Bay. The man put up 1,000 yards behind Brandon Jacobs in 2009. Above 5.5 yards per carry in 2008, Ward is going to get the majority of the carries. Carnell Williams is off injury, Earnest Graham is an injury risk, and the Bucs have no idea who will lead them behind center. Ward is currently going in the fourth round, but after training camp, we might see that draft position rise.
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