Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy Low / Sell High

Time to trick the other fools you play fake football with into giving this guy at value. (AP)

Buy Low

Darren McFadden, RB Oakland Raiders- Run DMC had a less than impressive outing this last week against the Houston Texans, who sold out all game to protect against the run.  Trust me when I say that this was not a case of Darren McFadden not getting it done as much as Houston doing everything in their power to stop the run first and foremost.  McFadden still has all of the fantasy promise in the world, and even after a lackluster week 5, still tops the league in rushing yards on the season.  But McFadden has now been held out of the end zone two consecutive weeks, and McFadden owners who were getting used to 30 point games might be getting a little nervous.  If you have guys like Fred Jackson, Jones-Drew, or Gore and you can somehow swing a straight up trade, you would be making out like a bandit.  McFadden will end up a top 5 fantasy back this year, with the potential to be top 3 or better.  You may not have a better opportunity to steal one of the top fantasy stars of this year.

Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans- Now seems about the appropriate time to be making a play for Johnson.  CJ2K (or CJ.8K as he is on pace to be right now) has had a fairly abominable start to the season.  Anyone who drafted him in the first round (most Johnson owners) at this point are likely blaming their losing record on his failings.  And rightfully so.  At this point most Johnson owners are going to be operating out of a hole, and they need something to get going for them asap, not when Johnson feels like it.  Add in that Johnson left late in this last week’s matchup with some hamstring tightness, plus the fact that he is on bye this week, and Johnson owners may not possess the patience at this point to see this one through.  I do think that far better days are ahead for Johnson at some point this season, and the bye week could certainly help get things going back on track.  If you have a lot of RB depth and can afford to trade off a mid to high end RB2 (Beanie, LaGarrette, or maybe even BJGE if you are a good sales person) this week, that may be all that it takes to sway Johnson owners to unload.

Jermichael Finley, TE Green Bay Packers-  Finley is now two very pedestrian weeks removed from his 3 TD performance against Chicago in week three.  Owning any GB receiver not named Greg Jennings can be a little touch and go at times because of how Rodgers likes to spread the rock around, but if there were anyone on this team that is guaranteed to get some love besides Jennings it would be the big guy.  I still think that Finley is a top 3 fantasy tight end right now, but his current owner may not feel the same way.  Take a look at what kind of needs the Finley owner in your league has, and try and trade him for your middle of the pack tight end and a low end player of that need.  Unless you have Jimmy Graham or one of the Pats tight ends, this is a great move for anyone looking to shore up their tight end spot with top tier talent for cheap.

Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons-  Roddy White is somewhat of a fantasy anomaly right now.  He is top tier talent, in a system that favors the passing game, with a reasonably good QB, and he is currently second in the league in targets behind only Wes Welker.  However, fantasy points wise Roddy is barely a top 20 receiver to this point in the season.  Some might argue that Julio Jones is stealing production away from him, and to a certain degree this is true.  Julio is getting far better coverage on his side, which has led to a few big games for him.  Eventually though, teams are going to have to start respecting Julio as much as Roddy, at which point the Falcons and Matt Ryan could have a field day going after the one of the two with single coverage.  When this happens Roddy’s value could shoot up close to what many believe he was worth prior to the start of the season.  Because your Roddy owner likely spent a high second round pick on him it may take a little bit to pry him away, but if you can trade away a low end WR1 (someone like a Desean Jackson or Dwayne Bowe) with another low end player to sweeten the pot, you might be able to get it done.  Another thought would be to push out a hot waiver wire wideout such as Victor Cruz or Pierre Garcon along with an RB2/WR2.  However you can get it done though, now is the time to try and snipe Roddy out.

Vincent Jackson, WR San Diego Chargers- V Jack was a guy that I expected huge things from this season, and I still do.  He has been a bit hit or miss as of late due to some lingering injuries that he has been battling with, in addition to the absence of Antonio Gates.  It cannot be overemphasized the impact that Gates has on this passing game.  When he is in the game he draws safety coverage for basically the entire game, it is really one of the only ways to stop him (and frequently it still is not enough).  What this means for the San Diego wideouts is plenty of single coverage opportunities.  Gates should be getting back into the lineup after the Chargers bye this week, at which point you can full on expect both Rivers and Jackson to get back on track.  Plus, if you can afford it, the week in which a player goes on bye is one of the better times to make a play for them.  Their immediate value inherently takes a hit during their bye week, and the manager in your league who owns this player may be in a desperate need to fill his slot with someone besides waiver wire fodder.

Sell High

DeAngelo Williams, RB Carolina Panthers-  This is a tough one for me, because obviously DeAngelo has shown some promise the last two weeks.  This last week he was able to rack up 115 yards and a score against the New Orleans Saints, respectable numbers for any fantasy player.  But it is the underlying numbers that need to have you concerned.  For starters, this is no longer a John Fox run-first offense.  It’s a passing offense, big time.  They love what they have in Cam Newton, and who could blame them.  Putting the ball in his hands gives this team the best chance to win, period.  And from a pure touches perspective, the numbers agree with this sentiment.  DeAngelo has only 46 carries up to this point in the season, averaging less than 10 carries per game, including only 9 carries this last week.  And before you get your panties in a twist over what kind of a ypc average that is, 69 yards and a touchdown of his total came off of a single option play, which obviously cannot be counted on week to week.  If you can find someone willing to give you value roughly equivalent to or higher than where DeAngelo was preseason ranked, sell sell sell and never look back.

Pierre Garcon, WR Indianapolis Colts-  Let me just say that I really like Pierre Garcon for the rest of the season.  I think that he has the potential to fill a WR2 role for a fantasy team in need, and honestly I even like his potential over Reggie Wayne for the remainder of the season.  Let’s break it down-  Peyton Manning can make basically any throw he wants to.  Therefor when he is throwing to Reggie Wayne, his favorite target, things like the best CB or double coverage do not scare Peyton.  Because he knows he can make the throw.  With Kerry ‘Ol Grey Beard’ Collins, he tries to throw to Wayne because he knows he is the best wideout on this team, and he thinks he can make the throw (he can’t).  When Painter is playing, he knows Wayne is the best wideout on the team, but he also knows he cannot make the throws into double coverage, and therefor he chooses to pass to the oft single covered Pierre Garcon.  Every game Painter has thrown in he has preferred Garcon, giving him more targets than Wayne in each of his three outings.  Which equals a great deal of potential and upside for Garcon, who has some physical gifts of his own.  Now for the dose of reality- Pierre Garcon is not going to continue to put up two TDs a game.  He is not Calvin Johnson, sorry.  His production is bound to drop off as future teams make adjustments to defend Garcon, how much is to be determined.  But if you can unload Garcon for a high end WR2 or an RB2, you could be getting some fantastic value for a guy you plucked off the waivers or drafted in the later rounds.

Benjarvis Green-Ellis, RB New England Patriots- My beef with BJGE is not too dissimilar from that of DeAngelo Williams.  The New England Patriots are a pass first team, plain and simple.  They have Tom Brady, who is arguably the best quarterback of this generation, and Wes Welker who is on pace to smash Jerry Rice’s single season receiving yards record.  And similar to DeAngelo, this heavily affects BJGE’s workload.  Through the first four weeks BJGE has tallied only 50 carries, for an average of 12.5 a game.  This last week he had 27. Let me explain why that will not continue:  For starters, there are two other running backs in this system that will continue to get carries.  Danny Woodhead missed last week’s game with a minor ankle injury, but between him and Stevan Ridley they have a combined total of 51 carries over the 4 games each of them have played- more combined than BJGE.  This is aside from the fact that Woodhead is way faster and more elusive than BJGE, and Ridley is more powerful and explosive.  But the real kicker is how Green-Ellis was able to amass these 27 carries last week.  For any of you who were able to watch the game it was quite a sight.  On the final possession by New England, they ran Green-Ellis on basically every single play.  Back-to-back-to-back, almost saying to the Jets “hey look, we don’t want to be doing this to you either, all you have to do is stop him once and we will start passing again”.  But they couldn’t, allowing BJGE to go for 5 yards over and over again until they had ran damn near 8 minutes off the clock.  It was a fantastic thing to watch, but it is ever so unlikely to be repeated.  My guess is Belicheck was being a little more cautious this week after Tom’s four interceptions a week ago, not wanting to put his lead in jeopardy with a 4^th quarter turnover.  But ultimately no coach trusts his QB as much as Belicheck, so Tom is going to be out there finishing games most of the time.  Right now putting up big points and being on the Patriots makes BJGE seem appealing to a lot of people, and if you can convince them to trade you the likes of a Forte, Matthews, or even Beanie Wells (even if you have to package up a lesser player or two with one of these guys), you would be coming out a big victor.