Fantasy Baseball Hit and Run-November 18

The world has changed; I can feel it in Houston; I can smell it coming from Chicago (smells like fresh, Chicago-style pizza)… Ok, enough with the dramatic opens, I’m starting to get hungry… This week on the Hit-and-Run we’ll break down realignment, the Astros being sold, a star signing an extension with a team in transition, and even the Twins getting active in securing their shortstop spot. We’ll start though with the biggest free agent to land with a new team so far this offseason…

Hit: Papelbon to the Phillies. Phily Inquirer

The first big free agent to land this offseason shipped out of Boston, as Jonathan Papelbon joined the Phillies and set the closer carousel in motion. (Len Redkoles/Getty Images).

Run: Pap took the deal that was, then wasn’t, then never-really-was offered to Ryan Madson. Papelbon remains an elite closer option going from one good team to another. He’s a top 5 choice in mixed leagues and will remain one of the most reliable closers in the game for this coming year. The deal does raise 2 important questions though. 1-Will he be a good option by the end of this deal? 4 years is a long time to sign a closer for. 2-Who’s left to close in Beantown? Will the Red Sox go get a Heath Bell (that’s what I think) or Francisco Cordero or will they stay in house and go with young Daniel Bard?  Whoever gets the BoSox closers job immediately goes top 10 and if it’s Bell probably top 5. Madson doesn’t appear to be in the Boston mix but does have an offer (like many others) to take his talents to South Beach.

Hit: Dodgers extend Kemp. True Blue LA 

Run: The Dodgers locked up the face of their franchise even with their owner on his way out the door. The key to Kemp’s value as a top 10 player is going to be the protection he does or doesn’t get in the Dodgers lineup. He’s developed into an elite talent and is definitely high on everybody’s outfielder board headed into next year. He may go up to the top if he gets a Prince (or similar) to bat behind him…

Hit: 3 teams in on Albert. Yahoo

Run: Albert Pujols has offers from Miami (don’t-call-us-Florida) Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals. There also seems to be the ever-popular mystery team involved. Tim Brown of Yahoo guesses that it could be the Cubs or Rangers and also throws in that other teams are exp;ected to get involved before Albert makes his decision. My best guess is that he remains a Cardinal, but the Marlins are not messing around and seem to be ready to throw $$ at any free agent they deem worthy. At the beginning of the offseason they said they were going to be active and they’ve at least brought a new intriguing element to the offseason.  Pujols fantasy stock doesn’t really change no matter where he is since you can’t move the #1 player up any further. If he goes to a hitter friendly park like Arlington though his numbers might just be silly-good, especially in that lineup. If he did go to Miami, the park factor would be unknown but he might be hurt slightly by the downgrade in the lineup. This is obviously the top story of the hot stove and until he signs the market for the other bats (Fielder, Reyes especially) will stay a little murky.

Hit: Sveum to manage the Cubs. The Chicagoist

Run: Theo’s new manager harkens back to his Boston days. Dale Sveum was the presumed leader for the Red Sox job, but it now appears he’s headed to the Cubbies to deal with their curses. If he manages like he coached third base he’ll be extremely aggressive which may lead to a bump in SB totals for the Cubs speed guys. As far as how he’ll manage the pitching staff and/or the lineup, since it’s his first gig all that is TBD. I can tell you that as a Red Sox fan he was the only one of the original candidates I did NOT want. I guess I still have unresolved issues with all the runners he got gunned down trying to score in his previous tenure.

Hit: Astros sold, headed to the AL West in 2013. Houston Business Journal

Run: This means that they’ll be at least 1 interleague series running all year long starting the season after next. It’s still unclear what that means as far as the DH rule, but it may mean that NL teams get DH’s (which would affect fantasy ABs). It also would mean that DH’s either would have to sit or play the field possibly affecting eligibility for even the most exclusive DHs (yes, Big Papi, we mean you). It also appears that there’s a second wild card in the works, which will supposedly only add to the drama of the postseason. Once they get the scheduling all figured out we’ll be able to analyze exactly what it all means. Next offseason we’ll have to figure out who gains/loses value because of this but it’s good to know it’s on the horizon, and there is still hope for the extra wild card team to start in 2012.

Hit: Dodgers sign Mark Ellis. LA Times

Run: This isn’t the big bat the need to fortify their lineup, but it’s a nice roll-playing veteran who can give some quality AB’s and play solid D at 2B. If he ends up batting in the 2 hole he will have some value due to  R, RBI, but if he’s in the 7 or 8 slot he’ll probably only be NL only material or fill-in for injured mixed leaguers when his bat heats up.

Hit: Diamondbacks bring back Aaron Hill. AZSnakepit.com

Run: Hill should remain the DBacks everyday 2B and keep about the same vaule he’s had the last few years as a 8-12 range 2b and a solid middle infield option for steals and HR if you can take a little bit of a hit in the batting average. It means that Arizona returns virtually the same lineup that brought them the NL West title and should be a fun snake-pit to jump into to grab the fantasy players you need.

Hit: Twins sign Jamey Carroll. Pioneer Press

Run: This is primarily a defensive signing as well as filling a need for some veteran leadership and stability in the Twins clubhouse. I like the signing for GM Terry Ryan, but Carroll is little more than a end of the draft filler if you need some solid average guys to compensate for your deficiencies elsewhere.

Hit: Pirates ink Barajas. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Run: Barajas isn’t going to help your average at all after batting just .230 last year, but his 16 HR and 47 RBIs make him borderline starter material in mixed leagues. He should be in the middle of the Pirates lineup and with their speedsters up top will probably see more RBI opportunities than last year. I expect a slight uptick in RBIs (maybe getting to 60ish) and serviceable numbers for an end of the draft catcher.

Hit: Cardinals select Matheny as new manager. Scout.com

Run: Another new manager, so we can’t really anticipate what all he will do, but he keeps Dave Duncan as pitching coach and Mark McGwire as hitting coach so it appears mostly a continuity issue.  I wouldn’t expect much radical change in how the game is run from what LaRussa did last year, neither do I see this affecting Pujols decision greatly.

Hit: Red Sox still searching for manager; now includes Bobby V and “mystery candidates.” Boston.com

Run: The Red Sox sem to be struggling through this process and have interviewed a number of candidates who they don’t seem to think quite the right fit. I’m a fan of making sure you’ve got the right guy, but c’mon let’s get this figured out. They appear to be ready to bring back Torey Lovullo for a second interview, but don’t have it scheduled. If it was my call (without the interview insight) I’d go with Lovullo. He seems to be a rising manager and handled the media and players well according to all accounts in his previous positions. Bobby Valentine would be ok with me, but the fact that he ran the Mets when they had a Red Sox-like collapse worries me a little. They need to get things rolling though on their offseason or else Boston might get left behind (or at least that will be the perception).

Tags: Cubs, Fantasy Baseball, hit and run, hot stove, MLB, Phillies, Red Sox