Fantasy Football-Week 12 Preview (part 1)

Week 12 is a critical week for the NFL teams as they turn the corner and head for the final stretch run to get into the playoffs or fight for their playoff seeding. It’s just as pivotal a time for fantasy football owners since most leagues have only 2 or 3 weeks left before playoff time. Because of the great football tradition of Thanksgiving we’re already 3 games deep into the week. In Wednesday’s preview I broke down those games and went 2-1 against the spread, for the year that takes me to a healthy 90-70. In today’s article we’ll focus our attention on the early games (1:00 EST) on Sunday and then tomorrow mid-morning we’ll examine the late starts and the Sunday and Monday night games. For each game I’ll give you my pick against the spread (taken from ESPN Pigskin Pick’em, home team in caps) and update you on any player news that’s relevant for any last-minute lineup decisions you’re still stressing over. So let’s get to it…

BENGALS (-7.5) over Browns

Cedric Benson had a 2 TD week last week against the Ravens and historically he owns the Browns. He's a top RB choice for this week. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Breakdown: In this rematch of week 1′s game in Cleveland, I expect almost a repeat of the same result, but with more of a slant Cincy’s way. Andy Dalton and the Bengals defense have matured greatly since that game while Colt McCoy and the Browns still haven’t been able to get anything going. They tried to give away last week’s game but the Jags couldn’t manage the clock and wouldn’t accept the Browns charity. The last 2 weeks for the Bengals have been an education in the school of hard AFC North knocks as they’ve lost close games to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They’ll find the going much easier against the Browns and I think they’ll beat Cleveland 33-17.

Player Notes: Peyton Hillis tells us he’ll be back and ready to roll for this game, which will be a welcomed site for both his fantasy owners and Browns fans. If you can afford to wait a week to see evidence of his recovery on the field, I’d advise it. Plus, he’s playing a tough Cincinatti D that only gives up 88 yards a game on the ground and this situation has rotation written all over it. All the Browns in the passing game are healthy but not good plays. Dalton and AJ Green are both probable and expected to play. They make decent plays but the Browns D has played well the last few weeks so expect solid but probably not huge days. Cedric Benson loves to play the Browns and dominated them in week 1, so he makes a top 15 option against a Browns D giving up an average of 167 yards on the ground over the past 3 games.

FALCONS (-9-5) over Vikings

Breakdown: Atlanta seems to catch every team at the perfect time. The Vikings will most likely be without Adrian Peterson for this matchup. The Falcons have played well all year at home with their only losses being to Green Bay (where they led at half) and New Orleans (the go-for-it-in-OT game). They aren’t wowing critics, but they’re consistently winning games and will most likely be around in wild card hunt. The Vikings on the other hand are suffering through another lost season made only worse by the Peterson injury. Even with AD they had the 19th ranked offense and now without possibly the #1 playmaker in the league there’s little doubt they’ll struggle to move the ball. Atlanta’s D is opportunistic and will put pressure on Christian Ponder and create turnovers. I see this one getting ugly fast and I’ll take the Falcons to roll 31-10.

Player Notes: The big news of course is the Peterson is doubtful and probably not going to see the turf this week. That means that Toby Gerhart will get the carries and might be worth a fill-in flier if you’re desperate this week. Percy Harvin will be relied on to make plays for the Vikings and the coaches have been making a concerted effort to get him the ball lately so I think he has a big week due to the large number of touches he’ll be getting. Other than Harvin I’d stay as far away as possible from the Vikings. The Falcons meanwhile make pretty decent plays even against a tough Vikings defense. Michael Turner has put up a number of solid games in a row since his workload was increased as the Falcons went more run-heavy on offense. You can expect more of the same especially after the Falcons get the lead. As far as the passing game goes, the Vikings rank 28th against the pass so it looks like a good matchup for Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, and maybe even Harry Douglas. White broke out last week and is a solid top 10 option. Jones is probable and expected to return from his hamstring injury; he’s a top 25 play. Gonzalez and Douglas may lose some targets with Jones coming back, so if you have other options go with them, but they’re not horrible plays against this D. The only danger with the Falcons passing game is if they get too far ahead and just run the ball. Still though it’s a tasty matchup for all the home team’s playmakers.

JETS (-8.5) over Bills

Breakdown: In what amounts to a battle of attrition, the Jets will have just a little bit more left and roll over the Bills at home. Mark Sanchez has looked bad on the field the last few weeks, but the Bills pass defense could be just the cure for what ails him. His fantasy numbers have actually been decent even as his actual play has regressed. Meanwhile, the Bills offense is shot after the disappearance of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the season-ending injury to Fred Jackson. 3 weeks ago the Jets contributed to  the slide of the Bills as they went to Buffalo and beat them up 27-11. Both teams are injury-filled and struggling but the Jets D is still solid (except for that whole Tebow-run incident) and this is another one that could be over early; I’ll take the Jets 24-7.

Player Notes: The Bills are 25th against the pass so Sanchez, Santonio Holmes, and Plaxico Burress get a slight upgrade based on matchup and the fact that the Jets offense will be looking to make a statement after their recent struggles. LT looks to be out with his injury, but Shonne Greene is expected to play. How much he plays is still unclear after Joe McKnight’s breakout last week. My guess is McKnight sees a lot of action and Greene is relegated to goal line and power formation situations. In another messy backfield situation, the Bills will look to recover from losing Fred Jackson by using some combination of CJ Spiller (primarily), Johnny White (change-of pace), and Tashard Choice (just signed as insurance, I think). The whole situation has stay-away stamped on it in big letters especially when you add into that the fact that the Jets D only gives up 90 yards a game rushing at home. Spiller could have some serious value later in the right matchups if he can get the touches that Jackson got but for now he’s in a grab-and-stash situation. As far as the Buffalo passing game, I’m sorry if you have to use anybody in it since they’ve been atrocious lately. That fact could change, but I doubt it will against the Jets.

Buccaneers (+3.5) over TITANS

Breakdown: Neither team has been inspiring of much confidence lately, but of the two QBs I trust Josh Freeman a touch more and he gets the 3.5 points so if it’s a FG game, they cover. The Titans looked bad last week under Matt Hasselbeck but good under Jake Locker. With Hasselbeck expected to start and their backfield still a mess, I think the Bucs are due for a road win. They played Green Bay relatively close last week and Josh Freeman showed flashes of the Freeman that was a breakout candidate coming into the year. This game will tell us a lot about where these 2 teams are headed the rest of the year and I’ll go with Tampa 21-20 after a trademark game-winning Josh Freeman drive.

Player Notes: Matt Hasselbeck is probable and will start against the Bucs 29th-ranked pass defense, but still is iffy based on his own recent struggles even before the injury. Tampa’s D isn’t all that good against the run either (27th) so it might be just a Chris Johnson-Javon Ringer double feature. Tennessee’s Defense ranks middle of the pack across the board, but the Bucs did give us a little insight into their gameplan when OC Greg Olson said he wants to get Blount the rock about 25 times this game. That’s a recipe for success if you’re a Blount owner or a Tampa fan so it’s a good sign…

Panthers (-3.5) over COLTS

Breakdown: The Colts are winless and looked horrible in home losses to Atlanta and Jacksonville headed into their bye. Teams coming off a bye have also looked bad this year, so that’s probably not going to help much either. The Panthers looked bad last week coming off their bye 2 weeks ago as they were pummeled by Tennessee then last week looked much improved until falling apart late against the Lions. Cam Newton’s poised for a bounce-back game and I think his Cats will roll the Colts 35-14.

Player notes: The Colts get what should be a good matchup against a woeful Panthers defense, but they’ve been even worse so just stay away. The Panthers offense is all Cam Newton who’s a great start this week. Williams and Stewart are flex options out of the backfield and Steve Smith and Greg Olsen should be solid options in this good matchup for them.

Cardinals(+3.5) over RAMS

Player notes: There’s no answer yet as to who will be under center for the Cardinals. Kevin Kolb has a chance to return but if not it’s Jake Skelton’s show to run again. Either way Larry Fitzgerald is still a good play (somehow) and Beanie Wells put in full practices at the end of the week so he should have a good matchup as well. For the Rams, if at all possible just stay away. Brandon Lloyd and Steven Jackson are usable, but only if you have no other options.

Texans (-3.5) over JAGUARS

Breakdown: Welcome to the show, Matt Leinart. There couldn’t be a better situation for Matt to walk into as he’s had the bye week to prepare and the Jags are down their 2 starting CBs. Add to that a now healthy Andre Johnson and a great running back tandem of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, and there’s no way he doesn’t succeed, right? Well, Vegas isn’t so sure as you can tell by the 3.5 point line. I think Leinart isn’t the answer and unfortunately the Texans won’t make the deep run in the playoffs they could have with Schaub under center. That being said, for this one week I think the Texans will be just fine and win 33-10 over the hapless Jaguars.

Player notes: Andre Johnson should be back and is a great play against a suddenly leaky Jaguars secondary. Foster and Tate are only helped by less confidence in the QB as it means more handoffs for them and there probably wasn’t anybody else on this offense you were using before the change. It’ll be interesting to see Leinart’s ball distribution, so check the targets at the end of the game to see what if any value any other receivers have. On the Jacksonville side of things if you have MJD you start him, but other than that there isn’t a Jag worth owning.

Come back tomorrow morning for part 2 where I’ll break down the late games and the night games and give you the latest on who is expected to do what as we round out our previews of week 12.

Tags: Bengals, Falcons, Fantasy Football, Jets, NFL, pigskin pick'em, preview, week 12