Fantasy Football Preview and NFL Picks-week 13 (part 2)

Week 13 got off to a compelling start with Thursday Night’s bird battle in Seattle. There’s plenty more to come this Sunday as Week 13 in the NFL and in fantasy football is a pivotal week for playoff qualification and seeding. What can you expect this Sunday? Well, the early game preview, picks, and breakdown is posted here and here’s part 2 of our preview highlighting what you can expect from the late and primetime games. The spread as always is taken from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em and the home team is in all caps.

Ravens (-6.5 ) over BROWNS

Analysis: The Browns have been playing teams tough and this week host the Joe Flacco show. The Ravens are coming off an impressive Thanksgiving night win over the 49ers, but it’s been after wins like that they’ve been most vulnerable. Baltimore has been one of the most inconsistent teams all year, and Coach John Harbaugh will be trying to shake the image that they play to the level of the competition. Fortunately for the Ravens, they get the Browns this week who they’ve dominated in winning the last 6 meetings between these division foes. The reason I think they’ll make it seven is pretty simple: Ray Rice. Rice is due for a monster game and Cleveland’s 29th ranked rush defense is coming at the perfect time for him. The Browns offense just doesn’t have enough fire-power to sustain anything against this re-fortified Ravens D and I see Baltimore pulling this one out 27-13.

Player Notes: Ray Rice is the guy you’ve got to have in this one… Joe Flacco makes a poor start against the #1 passing D of Cleveland and if you have other options stay away from an inconsistent Torrey Smith… If you have Anquan Boldin you probably have to start him, but don’t expect a huge game… The one area the Browns’ secondary have been susceptible to attack is through the Tight End. They’ve allowed an average of a touchdown to a TE just about every other game (23rd in the league) so Ed Dickson’s a mid-to-low end TE1 and even Dennis Pitta might be in line for some work around the goal line… Peyton Hillis is the only Brown worth owning right now in Fantasy Football, but if you can afford to bench him, do so against this 3rd-ranked rushing D of Baltimore. The Raven’s pass defense is no slouch either (ranked 5 overall) and with the inconsitency that has marked Colt McCoy and the Browns passing game, look for other options.

CARDINALS (+6.5 ) over Cowboys

Analysis: The Cowboys have won 4 in a row over a soft schedule and are about to bump up the degree of difficulty after this one. The Cardinals look to have Kevin Kolb back for the first time in a month as they host the ‘Boys. To help Kolb ease back in, the Cardinals will once again ride Beanie Wells who busted out last week for 228 yards agains the soft St. Louis run defense. He’ll find things harder against the Cowboys this week, but I think the Cardinals will be able to keep it close against Dallas. In their last 3 games, the Cowboys detroyed the Bills at home, but then edged out the Redskins on the road and the Dolphins at home in their last 2. They’ll be well-rested after 10 days off following Thanksgiving, but I see this game playing out very similarly since only twice this year (both at home: Bills and Seahawks) has Dallas won by 7 or more. I’ll take the Cardinals and the points, but I see Dallas winning this on 23-20.

Player Notes: Miles Austin is expected to sit this one out giving Laurent Robinson another week of value as a WR2. Robinson has proven his potential especially in the Red Zone while Austin’s been recovering from his groin injury… Dez Bryant will be the #1 option but has struggled to find consistency since Austin has been sidelined. He’ll excel once again when he returns to his #2 roll… Tony Romo should be set up well against the 25th ranked pass defense of the Cardinals allowing 266 yards per game…On the Cardinals side of the ball, I’d give Kolb a week to see where he is before plugging him in, but Fitzgerald should be good to go as a WR1 (not a top option for the week, but a good one)… Wells will face a much stiffer test this week and has a worrisome injury but is too hot not to start coming off his breakout last week.

Packers (-6.5 ) over GIANTS

Analysis: The Pack continue their run at perfection against a struggling Giants team. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an insane level right now. After watching what Drew Brees and the Saints did to these Giants, the Packers must be salivating to play this defense. Unless the G-men rediscover their pass rush (no Osi Umenyiora is not a good place to start) the Packers passing game is primed to explode. The Giants will once again be in catch-up mode so the passing game of the Giants will probably pile up the yards too. I’ll take the Pack 45-28.

Player Notes: If you own Giants or Packers, they’re all green lighted for big fantasy numbers this week. Don’t leave points, Packers, or G-men on your bench this week. The only exception is the injured Mario Manningham who once again is expected to miss this one (and rumblings are maybe the whole season). All the Packers on offense are expected to play so you can expect them to put up numbers. Which one of the receivers goes off (Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, or even James Jones) is anybody’s guess but they all have big game potential and are sure to see some action in this shootout. On the Giants side, Ahmad Bradshaw may return (stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend) and if he does, he makes a great start against a Packers linebacking corps that will be down both AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop. If Bradshaw plays he’s a RB2 with high-RB1 upside if the Giants run the ball to keep it away from Rodgers and his broken foot doesn’t limit him too much. Hakeem Nicks looks good to go as well and he and Victor Cruz should be able to pile up points as Eli Manning throws it in an attempt to keep up. Also a stealthy play, Jake Ballard may be in line for a big game due to the LB issues and the fact that the Pack gives up the most yards to TE in the league (average of 67 yards and .45 TDs per game). The short version of my advice on this one: “Play everybody.”

49ERS (-13.5 ) over Rams

Analysis: The Rams go on the road where they’ve been atrocious offensively and play a tough 9ers D. The Rams offense has been bad in general averaging 10 points per game on the road and only scoring 14 or more 3 times in their first 11 games. Sam Bradford’s status is still unclear, and with the Forty-Niners being able to key in on Steven Jackson facing the #1 rush defense, stay away from all the Rams. The Rams defense is at the other end of the rushing spectrum and after what Beanie Wells did to them last week, Frank Gore is the #1 RB of the week and even Kendall Hunter has value as the 49ers will be ahead and able to run out the clock and win this one 20-3.

Player Notes: Play Frank Gore. Kendall Hunter should have some value as a possible flex play or fill-in for an injured RB. It’s no sure thing he’ll get carries or how many he’ll get, but if he does he’ll get his piece of the points the Rams are serving up. There are literally no Rams I would start unless I had no other choice.

SAINTS (-6.5 ) over Lions

Analysis: This one has a chance to rival Packers-Giants for the fantasy-point-bonanza of the day. The Saints’ numbers at home are astounding. They’ve averaged almost 42 points and 485 yards of offense per game at home. The Lions D will need to harass Drew Brees but may find that difficult to impossible without Ndamukong Suh as he serves the first of his 2 game suspension. The Lions offense is good, but they still need to find a consistent running game and a possession receiver. The Saints are the best-case scenario of what the Lions want to be when they grow up… New Orleans 45-Detroit 31

Player Notes: This’ll be a High-scoring shootout. The Saints D has been good at home until they get way ahead and then they allow yards and points (see last week’s Giants line) so there’s value to Kevin Smith, and especially Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford… For the Saints you’ve got to play all your Saints and hope it’s their turn in this Drew Brees-party-of-an-offense. Sitting a Saint could easily be a mortal sin when they’re rolling like this and playing at home.

Chargers (-2.5 ) over JAGUARS

Analysis: The Jags have a new coach (former Defensive Coordinator Mel Tucker), a new owner(Pakistani-born Billionaire), and possibly new location (rumors running rampant), but the same starting QB as they stubbornly stick to Blaine Gabbert. Maybe it will pay off down the road, but until I see it, I’m staying away. It’s hard to believe the Chargers only get 2.5 but it shows you how horrible Philip Rivers and the rest of the Bolts offense has been. I think they’ll struggle some more but ultimately score more than Gabbert and the Jags 20-16

Player Notes: Stay away from any Jag not named Maurice Jones-Drew. Tucker has completely overhauled the roster. For example, Jason Hill who was a starter at the beginning of the year was straight-up cut from the team. All the roles have been redefined, which means this is an important game to take note of to see who gets the opportunities to make plays and who makes them. Drew is a good start against a weak (25th ranking) Chargers rush defense, but other than him stay away… On the Chargers side, V-Jax up-and-down ride is due for an up but against the 4th ranked pass defense in the league it’ll be tough going. The Jags have lost corners so there might be something there, but it hasn’t caught up with them yet. Where they are vulnerable is against the run so look for Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert to have some value and Antonio Gates to eat them up underneath. Play your Chargers as you normally would but don’t expect an explosion of scoring against this fairly solid defense.

So there’s your picks and matchup analysis for this week 13. Good luck unless you’re in my league and hopefully you get the playoff position you crave. Check back later tonight for injury updates and then again tomorrow morning for inactives and/or last minute changes. Enjoy the games!

record this year: 98-76

last week: 10-6

this week: 0-1

Tags: Cardinals, Fantasy Football, NFL, NFL Picks, picks against the spread, Ravens, start/sit, week 13