NFL Playoffs-New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers-Pick and Analysis

The most compelling game of the weekend kicks things off on Saturday at 4:30 on FOX. It’s a classic offense versus defense matchup that will be a fascinating study of old-school-”run and stop the run,” versus new school-”throw the ball around the field and run the defense ragged.” Both philosophies have worked well enough for their respective teams that they stand here just 1 win away from the NFC Championship game.

The upcoming weekend is full of interesting matchups like this one and for fantasy football playoff challenge picks you can follow this link. You’ll see a lot of Saints there, which tells you how I think this is going. Later on in the week check back for our previews of the other 3 playoff games this weekend

This should be a good one and here’s how I see it happenin’:

Drew Brees and the Saints will march west to take on the San Francisco 49ers top notch defense in an incredible matchup of strength vs strength. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

Analysis

This should be an awesome game that gives both teams a chance to showcase their strengths. New Orleans beat the Lions last week playing from behind, but gave up a lot of yards to Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and company. The Saints D can’t afford to allow that to happen again, since the 9ers D should at least be able to limit what Brees can do. The San Francisco defense is coming off a year where their D ranked at or near the top of every major category and played absolutely stifling at home.

The Saints have looked great in the playoffs over recent years (including a Super Bowl win) with only one exception. Last year in the Wild Card Round they went West to face Seattle and lost on the Marshawn Lynch earthquake play. This year they once again have to trek across the country to face the NFC West champ, but this time they’ll be looking to write a different ending to the script against the 49ers.

Let’s break down each facet of the game and look at some major players involved after the jump.

Defensive Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Aldon Smith has been punishing QB's all year. (By Marcio Jose Sanchez, AP)

49ers Defense: The 9ers D was #1 in scoring defense and only allowed 10.9 points per game at home. Part of that average may be affected by the fact that they’re in the NFC West which isn’t a powerhouse of a division.

They also ranked #4 in total yards per game, #1 in rushing yards per game by almost 20 yards, and #2 in takeaways. At home this D has forced 3 turnovers per game and the Niners lead the league in turnover margin per game.

Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are incredible at the inside linebacker position and Justin Smith and Aldon Smith lead a fierce pass rush that resulted in 42 sacks. The Saints O-line has kept Brees upright and healthy, but Smith and Smith will be out to crush him Sunday which is what makes this next point so important…

Saints Offense: For the Saints to win they need to do 2 things. #1) hold on to the ball. They can’t turn the ball over and give the 9ers offense short fields and give the crowd an excuse to get loud. #2) establish the run game early so that the defense can’t just drop everybody back in coverage while sending stunts and blitzes at Brees. Brees, when given time, can pick apart any defense, and an established run game is one of the keys to getting Brees that time. The problem the Saints will have is that the 49ers are excellent at absolutely stuffing the run. They allow an average of just 68.6 yards on the ground at home. The Saints will need a great effort from the Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory/Darren Sproles troika if they want to get their offense fully engaged this week.

The other stat you’ll hear over and over is that the Saints average 38 points per game in a dome, but outside they’ve been limited to just 23.8. San Francisco isn’t scheduled to have bad weather, but the Saints up-tempo offense has struggled at times even in nice weather in Tennessee and Tampa where they played outside the friendly confines of a dome.

That being said, the Saints offense has been clicking on all cylinders having scored over 30 in 5 of their 6 games since the bye week. Drew Brees set the record for most passing yards in a season and he spreads the ball so well, the defense can’t devote all their energies to just one player. This is definitely the strength on strength matchup of the game with what was statistically was the best offense in years against one of the best defenses in years.

Saints Defense: The Saints defense isn’t so great. They got walloped last week by the Lions right out of the gate and actually went in trailing by 4 at half. The good news, is that they played much better 2nd half and only allowed 7 points per quarter each quarter of the game.

Roman Harper will have the unenviable task of trying to limit TE Vernon Davis and the Safeties for the Saints will need to step up their game to keep from getting beat big like they did last week.

The Saints did force turnovers last week as Jabari Greer had 2 picks in the 4th quarter to ice the game. The Niners will have to avoid turnovers (like they have all year) if they want their offense to have a chance at keeping up with the Saints. Greer will likely focus his efforts on Michael Crabtree this week and if challenged he could snatch another INT.

49ers Offense: The Niners offense is based almost solely on the run. Frank Gore is coming off an incredible season and Alex Smith learned to limit turnovers and run Jim Harbaugh’s new offense with enough confidence to get San Francisco to the level that it needed to be to get it to this point.

Smith’s main targets will be Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis as receiving threats both over the middle and deep down the field. The lack of a secondary WR threat could hurt San Fran, as the Saints were able to shut down single WR attacks earlier in the year. I don’t think this offense has the firepower to win this game unless the D can stop the Saints almost entirely.

Special Teams: Both teams feature dynamic return men.  The Saints signed Darren Sproles who has, once again, been excellent for them on kickoff and punt returns. The Niners use Ted Ginn Jr who also has returned kicks and punts this year. Both have return TD’s already this year and both could break one on any return. It won’t be easy as both punters are also great and are 1 and 2 in net yards per punt with the Niners getting a ever-so-slight edge in that category.

Both kicking games are solid, David Akers finished 38-52 for the Niners and John Kasay finished 28-34. They both are fairly accurate although they don’t have the deepest range.

I expect Jimmy Graham to find the end zone this week like he does in this picture against the Colts. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

Player to watch

Jimmy Graham-OK, he’s not much of a sleeper anymore since everyone has heard of him and knows how Brees loves to throw the ball in the direction of his big, athletic TE. Graham will be the key to success for Brees as the excellent pass coverage will force him to check down to Graham who led the team in targets last week as well. He could be in store for a huge game, but at least he should secure a TD and 50+ yards.

Graham is one of the emerging new class of TE led by Rob Gronkowski of New England. It’s no mistake that these 2 big, athletic, virtually impossible to tackle, ideal red zone targets are still in the playoffs. Throw in Ed Dickson, Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley and it’s easy to see very quickly how vital a strong, athletic pass-catching TE can be to a pass-heavy NFL offense. There’s no offense that passed more than the Saints this year, and I think that Graham will have a good game in this one as Brees elads them back to where the season all began–Lambeau Field.

Final Conclusion

In this league, with the current setup, I think that good offense will beat good defense. The Niners don’t have nearly as much playoff experience as the Saints, and I think they may come out just a bit flat after a week off. If they do, Brees will be able to break them down and put points on the board.

I think it will be close and the Niners will have a chance but I don’t see how Alex Smith can be expected to take down Drew Brees in a shootout. I could see the Niners D being good enough, so I’m not super-confident in this pick, but I would lay the points if forced to pick agains the spread.

My pick for this game is Saints 27-Niners 17

Tags: Aldon Smith, Alex Smith, Divisional Playoff Week, Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, NFL playoff picks, picks against the spread, San Francisco 49ers