NFL Playoffs-Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens-Pick and analysis

Sunday’s games kick off with the most defensive of all this weekend’s games. If you’re a fan of hard-hitting, ball-hawking, run-stuffing, QB-sacking defenses have we got a matchup for you. After the Saints-Niners with a great offense vs a great defense and the Broncos-Patriots with their superstar QBs, all of us will probably be ready for a little grit and grunt from a brutal defensive struggle like this one. This game kicks off at 1:00 EST on CBS from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

While both these teams have relied heavily on their defenses to get them to this point, it will be which of their similarly-constructed and similarly-inconsistent offenses that can execute the best that will decide this game. Here’s an analysis of each of the facets of the game, a player to watch, and my final conclusion on how I think this defensive battle plays out.

Ray Rice ran for 101 yards in the first meeting between the Texans and Ravens and will look to have another good day against a tough D.(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Analysis

Baltimore Offense: The Ravens rely on one of the best rushing attacks in the league with multi-purpose back Ray Rice at the focus. Rice had another exceptional year finishing with 1,364  yards rushing and 12 TD’s. Rice is also a very valuable part of the Ravens pass game catching 76 passes for 704  yards and 3 more touchdowns.

Rice isn’t the only weapon QB Joe Flacco can utilize. Anquan Boldin is expected to return after a knee injury kept him out of the last 2 games of the regular season. He’ll join rookie standout Torrey Smith as the starting WR who will try and stretch this Texan defense. Most of the underneath work in the passing game will be handled by TE’s Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta who have both shown flashes of potential this year and could have solid games if the Ravens have to take to the air. Their preference though, to be sure, is to keep the ball on the ground and in the hands of Ray Rice.

Texans defense: J.J. Watt had a pivotal return TD last week against the Bengals that put Houston up for good, as the Texans D forced 3 turnovers that swung the game in their favor late. Last year, the Texans were one of the worst pass defenses in the league, but what a difference a year makes. With the change to Wade Phillips at DC they’ve risen to #4 in scoring defense, #2 in total defense, #3 in passing defense, and #3 in rushing defense.

When these two teams met back on October 16,  the Texans D gave up 29 points, the second most they had all year (New Orleans hung 40 on them). In this one I expect them to commit to stopping the run and at least be able to limit Ray Rice. I think that may cost them a couple plays to Boldin or Smith deep though and they end up giving mid-20′s points to Baltimore.

Texans Offence: T.J. Yates has stepped in and played pretty well after both starter Matt Schaub and backup Matt Lienart went down with season-ending injuries. He’s had his 2 best games against the Bengals. The first time he faced them he clinched the franchise’s first playoff birth and the 2^nd time he secured them their first playoff win. Yates connected with Andre Johnson for a TD last week as he welcomed him back from his hamstring injuries. The other major target in the passint O is TE Owen Daniels.

Most of the offensive load for the Texans is shouldered by Arian Foster and the running game which ranked 2nd in the NFL with 155 yards per game. The Texans use a zone-blocking scheme which is designed to stretch the defense from sideline to sideline and can wear out even a good, disciplined defense like the Ravens. That’s the goal anyway. Here’s why I don’t see that happening…

Ravens defense: The Ravens defense is still one of the elite units in the NFL, ranking 3rd in scoring defense, 3rd  in total defense, and 2nd (behind SF) in rushing defense. That rushing defense has already tangled with Arian Foster and the zone-blocking and they were able to limit him to just 49 yards on the ground even with the threat of Matt Schaub at QB. With Yates now in as the starter, expect the Ravens to key in even more on the running game and stuff it early and often.

The Ravens D is still led by the venerable Ray Lewis who had 12 tackles and a sack last time these teams met. The best player on the Ravens this year would probably be Terrell Suggs who is in the running for Defensive player of the year after 14 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 7 forced fumbles. He’ll look to make life very uncomfortable for Foster and Yates on Sunday.

I think the Texans will have little to no luck on the ground, and be forced to rely on Yates late in the game. My guess is they get mixed results and end up in the mid-teens for a final score.

Special Teams: The special teams units for both these teams are solid, but not spectacular. As you’d expect from playoff teams they cover returns well, so don’t look for a huge swing on kicks or punts. Neil Rackers and Billy Cundiff are both very solid kickers so should it come down to a FG, it would be surprising if either one missed.

Ed Dickson's leaping ability (seen here at the combine in 2010) makes him a great Red Zone target for Joe Flacco. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Player to Watch

Ed Dickson-Baltimore-TE: Dickson’s production has been a little inconsistent this year and he doesn’t have the rep of a Gronkowski or a Graham. He has been a big part of the Ravens success throwing the ball. He finished with 528 yards and 5 TDs so he’s obviously a big red-zone target for Flacco. With the safeties respecting the deep threat of Smith and Boldin, there will be some space for Dickson to get on a LB or nickel back and it could lead to a big day for the big TE from Oregon.

Final Conclusion

The Texans win if: Flacco turns the ball over and Houston’s D stops Ray Rice. When the Texans have the ball they control the clock and run successfully with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and convert drives into 7′s.

The Ravens win if: T.J. Yates plays like a rookie 3rd string QB. Ray Rice plays like Ray Rice. The Ravens D is able to shut down the run once again.

My call: Baltimore 24, Houston 13

The Ravens are undefeated at home and played and beat this Houston team 2 QB’s ago and beat them. I can see Houston pulling the upset, but think it is very unlikely. I have no problem giving the 3.5 and taking the Ravens to win, and to cover the spread.

Tags: Baltimore Ravens, Divisional Playoff Week, Ed Dickson, Houston Texans, NFL playoffs, picks against the spread