NFL Playoffs-New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers-Pick and analysis

The Divisional round of the 2012 NFL Playoffs concludes with a game that might remind some of us of the Alamo Bowl. These two teams have already met already in an offensive showcase, and the best case scenario for both teams includes a high-scoring game so look for both teams to hit the 30s easily. I think it’ll take over 40 points.

This game will follow the Ravens-Texans game and complete the Championship Week playoff picture. New England will host the AFC Championship against the winner of the early game, and Green Bay (with a win) can host San Francisco. The Forty-niners  will host the Giants if New York can pull the upset. Here’s how I see this one playing out:

How Aaron Rodgers stands up to Jason Pierre-Paul and the Giants pass rush will be a key factor in this week's NFC Divisional Game. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Analysis

Packers Offense: The Packers offense has been one of the best all season. They lead the league in PPG with 35 (edging New Orleans), and finished 3rd in yards per game and passing yards per game.

Aaron Rodgers is considered one of the best QB’s in the game, and he’ll look to perform on the big stage once again. He’ll get Greg Jennings back from his knee injury, but the top receiver for the Packers was Jordy Nelson who finished with 68 catches and 1,263 yards with an impressive 15 TDs. Jennings, Nelson, Donald Driver, James Jones, Randall Cobb and TE Jermichael Finley all benefit from Rodgers finding the open man and getting them the ball in space where they can pile up YAC. They should completely overmatch the Giants thin defensive backfield especially with CB Aaron Ross  and S Deon Grant banged up due to injuries suffered last week.

The running game of the Packers is almost an afterthought with the efficiency of the passing game, but with James Starks probable to return it could be more effective than the first time these teams met. Rodgers doesn’t need a lot of help, but the run game would be a huge help if the Packers get a lead.

Giants Defense: The Giants defense struggled throughout the year especially against the pass ranking 28th in yards allowed passing in the regular season. The Packers destroyed them when these teams met in  week 13 for 369 yards and 4 TDs through the air.

Since then though, the Giants have been playing much better defensively and have focused on rediscovering their pass rush. The return of Osi Umenyiora with Justin Tuck moving inside and the emergence of Jason Pierre-Paul have made this front four one of the best in the NFL and the Giants don’t have to help them with the blitz much, which is a good thing since they’ll need the help covering receivers.

The defense shut out the Falcons last week who looked absolutely inept on offense. When the faced GB earlier in the year they gave up 38. While they’ve improved, the Packers have had an extra week to prepare, and for elite offenses that’s a huge help as we saw with Brady and the Pats last night. I think Green Bay breaks 30 and could end up with 40 pretty easily if the game turns into a shootout.

Giants offense: Eli Manning has been on the fringes of the “elite” conversation about QB’s for a couple years. This year he’s led his offense to 25 points a game with almost 300 yards a game through the air. He has 2 studly receiver with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Both of his receivers are breakaway threats on any play, but can also be prone to drops.

The Giants running game has been inconsistent throughout the year with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw combining to average the worst yards per game of any team in the league, just 89.2. They’ll need to control the clock, so look for the Giants to try and establish the run early if they can. Jacobs missed time early in the year but has looked like the more powerful back in recent weeks.

Packers Defense: The Packers defense is hard to get a good read on. They rank last in the league in total defense and passing defense while finishing 19th in scoring defense. They usually have a big lead which forces other teams to throw to catch up, which is why their “allowed” stats tend to skew high. They rank #1 in takeaways per game, and only San Francisco had a better turnover margin.

Clay Matthews hasn’t had as big a year statistically but still demands a huge amount of respect (part of the reason for the decrease in numbers) and has a knack for making the big play. 2 other’s on GB defense that that could be said of are BJ Raji and Charles Woodson both huge parts of the Pack’s playoff run last year.

When these 2 teams met the first time, the Packers D gave up 35 points and Victor Cruz had 119 yards and 7 catches. They forced 2 turnovers (typical GB) and did the usual “bend but don’t break” defense they’ve played all year.

Special Teams: GB rookie return-man Randall Cobb has a punt and kick return for a TD and is a dangerous weapon on all returns. Aaron Ross typically returns punts so if he is unable to play due to his concussion or is limited it will most likely be Will Blackmon or perhaps even Victor Cruz (who returned 12 earlier this year.) None of them is as dangerous as Cobb who could be a factor in this one.

Player to Watch

James Starks hopes to rekindle last year's playoff glory for the Packers. (Nam Y. Huh/AP)

James Starks-Starks is a key to the game since it’s his ability to run the ball that will keep the Giants front 4 from focusing exclusively on bringing the heat on Aaron Rodgers. Starks didn’t play hardly at all (3 carries) in the first meeting between these 2 teams but is probable for this game. He also had 29 catches in limited action and the Giants could struggle with screens if they have to bring help to pressure Rodgers.

I don’t expect a humungous day from Starks since he’ll be in somewhat of a timeshare and both teams will be pass-heave, but his roll will be an extremely important one. Last year in the playoffs he did great rushing for ofer 65 yards 3 times in 4 games and totaling 315 in the 4 games in last year’s super bowl run. He should be fresh, rested and ready to jump into an exceptional offense.

Final Conclusion

The Giants win if: Eli plays elitely and the front 4 harass Rodgers into turnovers. Nicks and Cruz go crazy against this iffy pass D and the Giants turn the Packers into a one-dimensional team so they can focus on just bringing pressure.

The Packers win if: Their defense causes turnovers as it has all year, and the offense plays at the level it has all year and puts points up early against a suspect Giants secondary.

My call: I think the Giants are being over-hyped in this matchup. The Packers beat them in NY, and now they’ll play them in Green Bay, coming off a week’s rest, with Jennings and Starks returning. The Packers offense will put points up and their D will force Manning into bad decisions. I’ll go Packers 45-Giants 27. The spread started at 9 but is now around 7.5 but I’d gladly give the points and take the Packers to move on to host the Niners next week.

Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Divisional Playoff Week, Fantasy Football, Green Bay Packers, james starks, New York Giants, NFL playoffs, picks against the spread