NFC Championship-New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers-preview, pick, and analysis

The NFC Championship is missing the #1 seed and super bowl favorite Packers and the team that had the #1 passer of all-time, the Saints. What it definitely doesn’t lack is drama and intrigue with the upstart, surging Giants heading west to take on the Forty-niners and their elite defense.

Patrick Willis and the Forty-niners defense will try and harass and hammer Eli Manning once again on the west coast. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez) (Credit: AP)

These teams met in the regular season, continuing our January theme of football rematches. It was a well-played, close game and both teams have dramatically improved since that time. The Niners took the win 27-20 after a 4th quarter touchdown pass to Vernon Davis (sound familiar) and a late defensive stand to stop Eli’s comeback bid. The Giants will look to avenge another loss like they did last week against the Packers as they return to Candlestick Park for this 6:30 EST kickoff on FOX. Let’s take a look at each aspect of the game:

Analysis

Eli Manning and the Giants offense have had plenty to celebrate this postseason. (Darron Cummings / AP)

Giants offense: Eli Manning has had this offense firing on all cylinders in their frist 2 playoff games. They put up 61 points in those 2 games and Manning has 3 passing TDs in each victory. Although most of the attention has been focused on the emergence of Victor Cruz, it’s been his fellow WR Hakeem Nicks that has dominated in the first 2 rounds. He had 115 yards and 2 TDs against Atlanta and then went for 165 yards and 2 TDs in Green Bay. Nicks has seen a team-high 9 passes come his way in each of the first 2 games and will again be Manning’s #1 option in the passing game. Cruz is a big play threat (remember the 99 yard catch against the Jets?), Manningham is a very capable 3rd WR (TD in each of the first 2 rounds), and TE Jake Ballard also will get some looks from Manning who does a good job of spreading the ball around and taking what the defense gives him. The Niner D might not give him much, as you’ll see below…

The running game of the Giants was dreadful at times this year, but has looked better in the playoffs. They had 172 yards against Atlanta and 95 yards last week against the Pack both above their season average of just 89 yards which ranked last in the NFL. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have almost evenly split time and carries in the backfield with Bradshaw getting slightly more work in the passing game.

49ers Defense: The Niners defense has been one of the best in the league all year long. They rank #2 in scoring defense giving up just over 15 points per game, #7 in total defense, and #1 in rushing yards allowed giving up under 75 per game. They should be able to shut down the rushing offense of the Giants that ranked last in the league during the regular season.

The Niners defense did an incredible job getting pressure on the QB last week and just Justin Smith and Aldon Smith got 9 hits on Drew Brees. That pressure results in turnovers which have become the staple of this defense. They led the league in turnover differential. They generate the pressure with surprisingly few blitzes. Typically dropping their linebackers and secondary into their ballhawking hard-hitting positions. The Niners get interceptions on deep balls which is where Eli likes to throw it.

In their last meeting San Fran sent more than 4 rushers just over 25% of the time. He’s struggled against that kind of rush all year and excelled when members of the secondary blitz, so don’t expect to see much pressure coming for CB or S blitzes. San Francisco picked Manning twice in their first game both when they rushed 4 or less. The key is getting pressure with that few, but they’ve been able to do it all  year. Patrick Willis played huge in that first meeting and I expect him to step up once again. In case you’ve been so fixated on New Orleans, New England, and Green Bay, take a look at this unit-it’s what real NFL defense is all about.

49ers Offense: The Niners offense isn’t the Packers, Saints, or Patriots. They don’t have tons of weapons down the field, but they showed last week that they can bring it when they’re called upon. QB Alex Smith has had a renaissance year under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and his favorite target is definitely TE Vernon Davis who hauled in the game-winner last week against the Saints. Michael Crabtree is their only really effective wide-out with Ted Ginn and Kyle Williams seeing time on the other side of the field.

This offense isn’t flashy, but the get the job done and more importantly, they don’t make the killer mistakes that sent the Cheeseheads packing last week. They’ve committed just 1 turnover since week 12, and Alex Smith reduced his interceptions from 16 (the last time he played a full season in ’06) to 5.

They rely on Miami Alum, RB Frank Gore to carry the load. Gore had a great regular season despite an injury costing him parts of several games including the first game against New York. He finished the regular season with over 1,200 yards, and 8 TDs. The Niners will try and ride him and his backup Kendall Hunter as they control the clock and keep Eli on the sidelines.

This is a totally different look than the Giants have faced in their last 3 games with Dallas, Atlanta, and Green Bay. Their much more of a running game which could slow down the deadly pass rush of the Giants and give Alex Smith a chance to step up big once again.

Giants Defense: The Giants defensive improvement has been the big difference between the regular season’s stumbling Giants and postseason’s dominating Giants. The big difference is the G-men’s constant pass rush. They dropped Matt Ryan in the wild card game twice and sacked Aaron Rodgers 4 times last week. Defensive Ends Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and Linebacker Michael Boley are all key parts of the pass rush while Corey Webster, Aaron Ross, and Antrel Rolle patrol the defensive backfield.

Depending on your perspective either the Giants played great defense and forced the Packers to drop passes and fumble, or the Packers beat the Giants coverage but couldn’t hang on to the ball. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but I think the Niners TEs especially should be able to get in good work over the middle of this D getting open. If they can hold on to  the passes and if Alex Smith can get them there, the space to make the plays will be there.

It was Vernon Davis who caught the TD against the Giants when these two teams met in November but 2nd TE Delanie Walker who led the team in yards with 69 and receptions with 6. Walker is questionable for this week’s matchup after breaking his jaw on December 24. He tweeted that he’s planning on playing, but no decision appears to be final. Other than passes headed to those 2 TE, Alex Smith struggled against the Giants the first time around throwing for 242 yards on 30 attempts with 1 TD and 1 INT. Kendall Hunter stepped in after Frank Gore left with a knee injury and ran for 40 yards and the other SF TD.

Expect the Niners to keep the playcalling fairly conservative for the most part while trying to hit on a few big plays as well to either Davis or Crabtree. The Giants D ranked 17th against the run this season so San Francisco is likely to keep it on the ground with Gore and Hunter and turn this into a Defensive struggle. They showed last week that they can put up points, but would prefer to possess the ball, cause turnovers, and win with old-school running and defense. Sounds like playoff football right?

Special Teams: There were 6 FG’s the first time these two teams met and with both defenses playing well, converting chances into 3′s will again be vital to winning. David Akers converted 44 of the 52 FG he attempted (84.6%) while Lawrence Tynes made 19 or 24 (79%) and has missed an attempt in both the Giants first two rounds.

The Giants don’t have a dynamic return game, but should have their starters available to return both kicks and punts. The Niners will possibly be using fill-ins since Ted Ginn Jr. is questionable after injuring his knee in the Saints game. Ginn was 3rd in the NFL in kick return average and 4th in pung return average and returned one of each for a TD, so his loss would be a significant one for San Francisco. Check back Saturday for injury updates for all the NFL playoff games.

Players to Watch

Aldon Smith had 2.5 sacks against Big Ben and the Steelers. He'll be hunting Manning in this one. (Photo: AP)

Since it’s Championship week, I’ll give you two players to watch. Both are on the Niners D, which is where I think this game will be won or lost. If Eli beats these 2, the Giants win. If these 2 terrorize Manning, San Francisco will be headed to Indianapolis… Aldon Smith-Smith has had a huge year and is in the running for defensive player of the year. He had a team-leading 14.0 sacks while also tallying 4 passes defended. Smith can flat-out rush the QB and had 2 tackles and a QB hit when these teams played in the regular season. Whenever #99 is on the field, keep an eye on him since Eli sure will be… Carlos Rogers-Rogers is the Niners #1 CB and had 2 picks and 6 tackles in the first game against the Giants. He’ll again be looking to play ballhawk after grabbing 6 INT’s in the regular season.

Final conclusion

The Giants win if: Their pass rush needs to get to Alex Smith and make him play like pre-Harbaugh Smith. Eli needs to be efficient and not turn the ball over while continuing to find Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham for big plays down the field to create space to get some kind of a running game going.

The 49ers win if: Alex Smith’s form of last week wasn’t a flash in the pan. If he can connect with the TE’s and Crabtree to move the ball down the field with Frank Gore chewing up yards on underneath routes and inside runs to get the pressure off Smith, San Francisco’s D will hold and San Fran will be headed back to the Super Bowl.

My call: This should be a great game. I’m still not totally sold on the Giants D, but I like NY’s offense better than SF’s. The spread right now is 2 1/2 points with the home team (SF) as the favorites. I’d give the points and take San Francisco, but I could see NY continuing to ride their momentum too, so it’s a tough call.

I’ll take San Francisco to ride their championship level defense and and hold off the Giants surge. They’ve been really good at home, winning their last 5, and their only loss there came all the way back in week 2 in OT to the Cowboys after the Jesse Holley catch. Other than that game almost 4 months ago, they haven’t lost at Candlestick under Jim Harbaugh.

San Francisco-23, New York-17.

Tags: 49ers Defense, Alex Smith, Championship Playoff Week, Eli Manning, Jim Harbaugh, New York Giants, NFC Championship, NFL playoffs, San Francisco 49ers, vernon davis