Fantasy Baseball-Not Good Stuff: Brett Myers to Close

 

 

The Astros have announced that they are moving Brett Myers from starter to closer. Of course, this is not move for the Astros if they expect to get the most value out of Myers. Over the last two years, Myers has averaged a 2.7 WAR. Only 1 NL Central closer had a better WAR than 2.7 in 2011, with one equaling it

So unless Myers becomes a top of the line, elite closer, the Astros are wasting value (and its not like they have a logjam at rotation other than new GM Jeff Lunnow loves Livan Hernandez for some reason).

As far as fantasy impact, saves are not a predictive or particular helpful statistic, so while many fantasy leagues put emphasis on saves, we can only project how well he will do, not how many saves he will get. So that is what we will try to do with Myers here, we will try to judge just how good of a reliever he will be.

Here is how Myers compares to other relievers/starters in recent memory (to get the full effect, click on the image):

As you can see, Myers is middle of the road in ERA, control rating, K-Rating, and efficiency. He is the worst against power hitters.

How Myers fits in with some of the late inning guys on other teams:

Player ERA WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 Control K-Rating Efficiency vsPower
Brandon League 3.70 1.26 8.42 0.84 2.89 6.69 63 57 65 67
Ryan Madson 3.59 1.29 8.91 0.87 2.73 7.81 64 65 60 62
Mark Melancon 3.21 1.26 7.79 0.56 3.54 7.88 55 76 68 77
Brett Myers 4.24 1.34 9.04 1.27 2.97 7.35 59 58 56 36
Jonathan Papelbon 2.33 1.02 6.76 0.65 2.41 10.68 69 93 86 73
Mariano Rivera 2.21 1.00 6.94 0.48 2.04 8.26 86 77 92 80
David Robertson 3.03 1.34 7.31 0.58 4.72 12.03 14 98 87 67
Sergio Santos 3.29 1.30 7.36 0.63 4.30 11.58 12 99 85 70

Again, Myers is middle of the road in control, but is the worst of the bunch against power and in efficiency. He is only slightly better than Brandon League at K-Rating, making him the second worst in the group.

Aug. 10, 2011; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Brett Myers against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks defeated the Astros 8-5 in 10 innings. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Myers does have a sample size as a reliever of course, as he served as the Phillies closer for some time. In his 58 games as a reliever, he has given up an OPS of just .651, 10.2 K/9IP, and a 1.247 WHIP. At 63.1 innings, its a relatively small sample size, but about a full season for most relievers. Another way to put it is that he had a ERA + of 106 in 2007 (his main year as a reliever), while league average for relievers is usually 108. This means Myers was a below average reliever.

All signs point to Brett Myers being an average to below average reliever, and as a “closer” that has no value (despite his cool beard), neither for the Astros or fantasy.

Topics: 2012 Spring Preview, Brett Myers, Fantasy Baseball, Houston Astros, Livan Hernandez

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