Sept. 17, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher David Ross (8) takes the field during the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Free Agent Fantasy Team Update: Defensive Projections


Endy Chavez is the latest addition to the All Free-Agent Fantasy Team. Photo by David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

As I promised last time (when we used offensive and pitching projections), in this update I will do some simple defensive projections on my all Free Agent Fantasy team and see if we can estimate a final win total for the team we have been building since the beginning of the off-season. First, the only signing in the past two weeks was:

Endy Chavez: MiLB contract

So I still have ten open spots on my roster, so I will try to find 10 more minor league contracts. This week, I decided to put the spreadsheet of my team up on Google Docs. You can download the spreadsheet here (I will update it everytime, and I will also upload the screenshots in future posts).

Defensive projections are always difficult, but it is generally understood that 3 years of defensive data is a good sample of data and should reflect the true talent of the defender. So for each player, I took the last 3 seasons of defensive data of all 3 major defensive metrics (FRAA, UZR, and DRS) and used the average per season (so the total of the 9 numbers divided by 3 and then divided by 3 again). This is a crude projection, but this is what I will use.

David Ross: .39

Geovany Soto: .36

Bobby Wilson: .27

James Loney: .20

Travis Ishikawa: .06

Brandon Allen: .05

Marco Scutaro: .06

Jeff Keppinger: -.24

Mike Fontenot: -.09

Maicer Izturis: -.01

Cody Ransom: .07

Eric Chavez: -.11

Jack Hannahan: .49

Ryan Ludwick: -.36

Melky Cabrera: -.59

Endy Chavez: -.18

Juan Pierre: -.38

Andres Torres: .73

Nate Schierholtz: -.11

Nate Mclouth: -.72

Dewayne Wise: .07

Brian Boguesevic: .33

Jason Bourgeious: -.07

Mitch Maier: -.09

Rich Thompson: -.03

As a total, my team projects to be almost exactly average defensively (.01 wins). This means, to finish our projection, the Kraken still grades out to be a 79-80 win team, slightly below average. It will be really hard to make upgrades at this time, but hopefully some things open up during the seasons and I can improve my team and a few players over perform. Of course, some of the worst players will never actually play in the Majors in 2013 or I can just release them, this selection bias may add a few wins for me my team, but we will have to see and adjust the projections as we go along.

Tags: All Free-Agent Fantasy Team Defensive Projections Fantasy Baseball Off The Radar