In case you missed the Tuesday post, I had my worst week of the year, going 20-27 last week to put me at 204-179 for the season. I need a good week!
Kentucky at Mississippi State(-10.5): This seems low considering Kentucky is on the road, and they havent been hanging with anyone so far. Give me the Bulldogs.
Marshall(-9.5) at Middle Tennessee State: Im not going to pick against Marshall anymore. Ive learned my lesson. Follow the Herd!
Boise State at BYU(-6.5): I’m more than a little surprised that the line is this low, especially with the mistake-prone Broncos on the road without their starting QB. This seems like easy money. Give me BYU.
(20)Louisville(-20.5) at South Florida: Bored or not, I dont see how the Cardinals can not cover this line against the hopeless Bulls. Give me Louisville.
(19)Oklahoma State(-13.5) at Iowa State: This line is falling fast, and is already down to 12.5 in some places. I can see why. The Cyclones are tough in Ames. That said, the Cowboys looked like the team they should be with Chelf running the show. I think they pull away late. Give me Okie State.
(24)Nebraska(-10.5) at Minnesota: I tend to think that the Northwestern offense is right up there with Nebraska. Minnesota is riding high coming off a huge road win, and is at home. I have to go with the Gophers here, especially if Martinez is back in at QB for Nebraska.
Houston at Rutgers(-6.5): This line opened four points higher. I might have taken it even if it stayed there. Give me Rutgers.
Ball State(-10.5) at Akron: The Lettermans beat Virginia on the road by more than this. I just dont think Akron can stay close without a lot of big plays. I dont think they get them. Give me Ball State.
Connecticut at (23)Central Florida(-23.5): UConn has been covered by practically everyone. This should be an easy one for the Knights. Give me UCF.
Northwestern at Iowa(-3.5): Colter is back, which doesn’t fare well for Iowa. I like Northwestern to snap out of their funk. Wildcats straight up.
Wake Forest at (7)Miami(FL)(-22.5): I know the Hurricanes are capable of covering this. That said, their perfromance last week has me questioning whether I can trust them to or not. Oh well, Duke Johnson is fine, and the Canes are at home. Thats good enough for me. Give me Miami.
Vanderbilt at (16)Texas A&M(-17.5): This seems a bit high for the beleaguered Aggie defense. At least a half point too high. Give me Vandy.
Georgia Tech(-9.5) at Virginia: Remember that BYU team that Virginia beat at home? Their offense is similar to GT’s. I think I have to go with Virginia here, even after what the Bees did to Syracuse.
Pittsburgh(-5.5) at Navy: I dont know about this one. Navy is a decent team, and is at home. Pitt is……well……Pitt. Give me Navy.
Miami(OH) at Ohio(.25.5): Ouch…..I hate lines like this. The Redhawks are dreadful, and they keep getting covered. I guess that means the less risky pick is Ohio. Ohio it is!
Toledo at Bowling Green(-3.5): As much as I like the Rockets, Bowling Green has been really good all year. Im going to err on the side of caution and go with the home team here.
Western Michigan at Massachusetts(-3.5): Ugh! No one should be forced to pick games like this! UMass is 1-0 when favored as a division one team. That is more impressive than anything WMU has done. Give me UMass.
Temple at SMU(-12.5): This line opened at -9, and should be higher still. I dont think the Owls can hang around. SMU rolls!
North Carolina State at (2)Florida State(-32.5): This line is up nearly a touchdown, and might still be too low. FSU is dangerous in that they have a very good defense to go with a powerful offense. I cant bet against that. Give me the Noles.
(10)Texas Tech at (15)Oklahoma(-6.5): I said after Tech beat TCU that they had a great chance of beating us. I still think that holds true. That said, the last time that TT came into Norman ranked higher, we destroyed them. We had an elite offense then. We dont now, but for less than a touchdown at home, what kind of fan would I be if I went against my team? Give me Oklahoma!
(9)Clemson(-13.5) at Maryland: Yes, the Tigers got knocked out at home by Florida State, but this is too low. The Terps have been a mess since FSU did the same to them. That wont change here. Give me Clemson
Boston College at North Carolina(-6.5): This line is down four points, and I can see why. BC hung with Florida State for a half, and with Clemson for almost the entire game. Before last week, I would have picked BC, but after the performance that UNC turned in against Miami, including picking off Miller four times, I have to think that they can beat BC at home by a TD. Give me the Tarheels.
UTEP at Rice(-17.5): Wow, this seems high. I know the Owls just bulldozed New Mexico State, but UTEP is better than that, right? Not that much. Give me Rice.
Duke at (14)Virginia Tech(-13.5): The Hokie defense is legit. The offense is a wreck. I dont think they score enough to cover this. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ends with a 13-0 score. Still doesn’t cover it though. Give me Duke.
Tennessee at (1)Alabama(-28.5): This is too many. The Vols are better than Arkansas, and they did knock off South Carolina and nearly Georgia. I’m pretty sure the Vols can stay within four TDs. Give me Tennessee.
Michigan State(-10.5) at Illinois: The Spartan defense is good enough to help the anemic offense cover this. I have to go with Michigan State with this low of a line…..
Buffalo(-1.5) at Kent State: This is way too low. Kent just got blown away by South Alabama last weekend. Buffalo wins BIG!
Eastern Michigan at (18)Northern Illinois(-30.5): Whoa…..big line coming through! That said, EMU is so bad that Lynch might break the record he set last weekend. Give me the Huskies.
Tulsa(-2.5) at Tulane: Im not making the mistake of picking against Tulane at home again. Wave straight up!
West Virginia at Kansas State(-10.5): This line is higher than I thought it would be. Kansas State does have its offense firing on all cylinders right now, and is tough at home. Can the Mounties keep up? I have my doubts. I have to go with K-State.
Utah at USC(-6.5): I dont know what to think about the Utes. They beat Stanford, then get embarrassed by an Arizona team that frankly is not very good. Then again, defense is their strength, and the Trojan offense has struggled all season. Give me Utah.
Troy at Western Kentucky(-10.5): Troy has been cover bait all year. Give me WKU.
Notre Dame(-19.5) at Air Force: The Domer’s offense has struggled to put up points for much of the year. In fact, the only team they have beaten by this much was a below average Temple team. Im going with Air Force at home.
UAB at UTSA(-6.5): The Roadrunners should have no problems winning by a TD at home against a subpar UAB team.
Louisiana Tech(-5.5) at Florida International: The Panthers have been horrid. I dont know much about LaTech, but this should be an easy W for them. Give me LT.
UNLV at Nevada(-6.5): This seems low. I know UNLV isn’t as bad as they have been recently, but I still don’t seem them staying within a TD on the road. Give me Nevada.
Wyoming at San Jose State(-7.5): This line is up four points, and I think it is a case of overcompensation. Wyoming isn’t this bad. Give me the Cowboys.
(21)South Carolina at (5)Missouri(-2.5): This is the equivalent of a boxing match with each participant having one hand tied behind their back with field generals Connor Shaw and James Franklin out. It’s all a matter of who has a better supporting cast, and right now, that’s Missouri. I do have questions about Clowney teeing off on their freshman QB, but I still have to go with Mizzou at home. They have momentum on their side.
South Alabama(-2.5) at Texas State: I was shocked at what the Jaguars did to Kent last weekend. So much so that I cant go against them here. Give me South Alabama.
(8)Baylor(-34.5) at Kansas: Can the Jayhawks hang with an elite offense? Maybe for a quarter, but I think Baylor buries them in the litterbox just like everyone else. Give me Baylor.
Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe(-12.5): The Panthers are money when it comes to not getting covered. I’m not bucking that trend now! Give me Georgia State!
(12)UCLA at (3)Oregon(-23.5): Wow, this seems high. I dont see the Ducks shutting down UCLA like Stanford did. I think this stays within three touchdowns. Give me UCLA.
North Texas(-11.5) at Southern Mississippi: The Eagles have been covered in every single game this year. Another trend I won’t buck. Give me the Mean Green.
Florida Atlantic at (11)Auburn(-23.5): FAU is a much improved team this year, but I still think this may be a little bit low. Im going the safe route with Auburn.
Idaho at Mississippi(-41.5): Wow! Can I possibly take Ole Miss by this many? Against Idaho, absolutely!
Texas at TCU(-2.5): I don’t buy this for one minute. Texas has been very good since the calendar hit October. There is no way they should be a road dog to a struggling TCU team. Texas straight up for my lock of the week!
Arizona(-14.5) at Colorado: I’m not sure why this line is falling. The Ralphies are still a wreck. Give me Arizona.
Penn State at (4)Ohio State(-15.5): This line is all over the place, varying up to three points. I still think it is too high. If Iowa can hang with the Buckeyes, I have to think Penn State can too. Give me Penn State.
(17)Fresno State(-8.5) at San Diego State: If the Bulldogs are only this small of a favorite over SDSU, why are they ranked? They need to prove it here with some style points. Give me Fresno.
(6)Stanford(-4.5) at (25)Oregon State: The Beavers’ past conquests at home are showing in this line, perhaps too much. I still like Stanford for this small of a line.
California at Washington(25.5): Look for the Bishop to bounce back in a big way in this game. I think I have to take Washington here.
Colorado State at Hawaii(-3.5): Go against the Warriors on the islands at your own peril. I am not going to mess with that mojo. Give me Hawaii.