In case you missed the results post, I went 29-22 in week 11 and 30-20 last week to put me at 315-275 on the season. I also hit both of my locks of the week to move that mark to 10-2 through 12 weeks. Let’s hope I can have another good run of it this week!
Rice(-17.5) at UAB: Why in the world is this line falling? It should probably be higher than this. Rice covers easily!
Rutgers at (18)Central Florida(-17.5): Rutgers got blown out by Cincy last week. I tend to think UCF is still the best team in the AAC, so they should be able to cover this one at home. Give me the Knights.
UNLV at Air Force(-2.5): This line looks backwards. The Rebels have been playing well since Fall hit, so I’m taking them again!
Navy at San Jose State(-2.5): The home teams are getting too much credit so far. I like Navy straight up!
(20)Oklahoma at Kansas State(-4.5): There are all kinds of things going against the Sooners here. Blake Bell is out, so Trevor Knight, who throws like criminals shoot in the movies, will be leading our offense. Which means that we will not be able to consistently move the ball through the air, and the K-State defense is solid against the run. On top of this, Sims ran for 199 yards against Baylor in Manhattan a few weeks ago, and we all saw what the Baylor defense was able to do to our run game. This one could get very ugly very quickly. I have a sinking feeling Kansas State is going to run off with this. I hope not, but the smart money is on the Wildcats here. Give me K-State.
(13)Michigan State(-7.5) at Northwestern: This looks low. The Spartan defense has been dominant lately. That wont change. Give me Sparty.
Memphis at (21)Louisville(-23.5): Louisville hasn’t covered anyone lately. I know that Memphis is far from a good team, and normally I would take them to get blown out here, but I just don’t know if Louisville can do it. Well, this line is probably much lower than it would normally be anyway, so I’m going to take Louisville.
Old Dominion at North Carolina(-17.5): Old Dominion has one of the best QBs you have never heard of in Taylor Heinicke. Other than that, they don’t have much. Will he be enough to keep the Monarchs close? Probably not. Give me North Carolina.
Duke(-5.5) at Wake Forest: An ACC championship game berth is within sight for Duke. They also could win nine games for the first time since 1941. Will the attention or the pressure get to them? This looks like a trap game to me. Then again, Im not sure Wake Forest has the weapons to beat them. I’m still taking Duke.
Cincinnati at Houston(-3.5): The Bearcats probably played their best game of the season last week in Piscataway. Can they take the show on the road again? I think so. Does it mean they can beat Houston? That I am still on the fence about. When in doubt, go with the home team. That means I’m taking Houston, I guess.
Michigan at Iowa(-6.5): Wow! Remember three weeks ago when Michigan was “good”? Me either. That said, Iowa hasn’t been good all season. Michigan straight up!
Virginia at Miami(FL)(-19.5): Miami is in a full on tailspin, and they are still almost a three TD favorite against Virginia. I wish I could say that I’m suprised, but the Cavs have been dreadful away from home. The thing that scares me is that Miami still wont have Duke Johnson back, and Virginia’s rush D is solid. I’m hoping they can stop Miami enough, because I’m taking the Cavs not to get covered by the slumping Canes.
Illinois(-6.5) at Purdue: Way too low. Illinois could cover this in their sleep. Give me Illinois for my lock of the week!
Mississippi State(-2.5) vs Arkansas at Little Rock: Too low. The Bulldogs managed to hang with Bama for the most part, even with Prescott out. With him back, the Hogs wont be much of a threat…..
East Carolina(-6.5) at North Carolina State: The Pirates trampled a better Tarheel team in Chapel Hill. They shouldn’t have a problem doing the same in Raleigh. Give me ECU.
Pittsburgh(-1.5) at Syracuse: The winner becomes bowl eligible. Pitt has played much better lately, but Syracuse is usually a tough team in the dome. I have to go with Syracuse at home.
Massachusetts at Central Michigan(-11.5): Hmmmmm……..I have a hard time believing that the Chippewas are double digit points better than anyone except maybe Miami of Ohio. I’m taking UMass.
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan(-24.5): This is lower than I expected. I feel very comfortable taking Bowling Green here.
Hawaii at Wyoming(-6.5): From paradise to winter. I don’t think Hawaii will handle that very well. Give me Wyoming.
Georgia State at Arkansas State(-23.5): The Red Wolves have been scoring in bunches lately, but the Panthers have only been covered once all season, and it wasn’t even by Alabama. Give me Georgia State.
New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic(-22.5): I didn’t take the Owls to cover Southern Miss last week, and they won by 33. They win by at least that much here. I’m not making the same mistake this week. Give me FAU.
(5)Oregon(-20.5) at Arizona: The Wildcats are improving, but not enough to hang with the Ducks just yet. Give me Oregon.
Idaho at (2)Florida State(-57.5): This is the largest line I have ever seen. How do you pick something like this? Eight touchdowns wont even cover it! That said, the Seminoles have not failed to cover a spread yet. I have to go with FSU, huge line be damned! I’m hoping for 58-0!
BYU at Notre Dame(EVEN): Would this line be even if it didn’t include the Notre Dame name? Doubtful. Give me BYU.
(12)Texas A&M(-4.5) at (22)LSU: Both teams have had issues on defense for much of the year, so I expect a very high scoring affair here. Manziel may get all of the attention, but Mettenberger has been very good in his own right, and has better talent around him. I like LSU straight up.
Boston College at Maryland(EVEN): Wow! Two even lines in the same week! We average about one even line every three weeks. This is making it easy. Give me Boston College, and it might not be close. Williams could run for 300 yards again!
(19)Wisconsin(-16.5) at (25)Minnesota: These teams are only separated by six spots in the polls, and the underdog is at home. I don’t think Wisconsin wins going away. Give me Minnesota. They have been solid lately, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they won straight up.
Indiana at (3)Ohio State(-34.5): This line is huge because Wisconsin blasted the Hoosiers last week, which has become a recurring theme. I think Indiana bounces back this week, and I use that term loosely. The Hoosiers wont keep up, but I don’t think they lose by five touchdowns either. Give me Indiana.
Nebraska at Penn State(-2.5): The wrong team is favored here. The Penn State defense isn’t going to dominate Nebraska like Sparty just did. Nebraska straight up.
UTSA at North Texas(-7.5): The Roadrunners have surprised at times this year, but UNT is money at home. Still, more than one score against a solid team is not easy to do. I think I have to go with UTSA here.
Utah at Washington State(-1.5): Believe it or not, the Leaches are just one win away from being bowl eligible, but the tidbit that caught me the most by surprise was the fact that Utah has just one conference win. Does anyone remember what that is? Still, Utah has been way below average on the road, and the Cougars are coming off a big win. I like Washington State again.
Colorado State at Utah State(-9.5): I’m still not taking the Aggies without Chuckie. Especially when Colorado State RB Kapri Bibbs is playing like he is. I actually like the Rams straight up in this one.
Middle Tennessee State(-23.5) at Southern Mississippi: I’m taking everyone over the Eagles after last week. Give me MTSU.
UTEP at Tulane(-16.5): This seems low considering how bad the Miners have been. I’m comfortable taking Tulane here.
California at (9)Stanford(32.5): This is a big line, but Cal has been the worst team in the Pac 12. They even lost to the Ralphies last week for Lynch’s sake! Give me Stanford.
New Mexico at (15)Fresno State(-32.5): Carrier is out for New Mexico, so this game will be out of hand early. Give me Fresno.
Marshall(-32.5) at Florida International: 32.5 is a popular number this week. However, in this scenario, it is not a ranked team trying to cover it. This might be too many, especially for an average team on the road. Give me FIU.
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama(-3.5): The Jaguars have hung with everyone except Navy. I’m comfortable taking them at home.
(17)Arizona State(-2.5) at (14)UCLA: Hmmm….the Sun Devils are ranked three spots lower, and on the road, yet they are the favorite? I don’t buy it. Give me UCLA.
SMU(-4.5) at South Florida: The Mustang defense has been terrible. Even so, I don’t see a way that South Florida generates enough offense to stay close in this one. Give me SMU.
Kentucky at Georgia(-23.5): Too low. The Bulldogs are mostly healthy now, and Kentucky hasn’t hung with anyone. Give me UGA.
Connecticut at Temple(-8.5): The Owls nearly shocked the world against Central Florida last week. UConn wont be much of a deterrent. Give me Temple.
Western Kentucky(-4.5) at Texas State: The Hilltoppers have been far short of consistent lately. The Bobcats have done well at home, and, well, you don’t get six wins by accident, even in the Sun Belt. I like the Bobcats straight up at home!
Tulsa(-3.5) at Louisiana Tech: Wow! I didn’t think I would see Tulsa favored again this year. Honestly, they probably shouldn’t be. I’m going with La Tech in Ruston.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee(-2.5): I know the Vols are tough at home, but Vanderbilt isn’t just marginally better this year. They are quite a bit better. Commodores straight up.
(8)Missouri(-2.5) at (24)Mississippi: It looks like Missouri will have star QB James Franklin back. While Mauk played well with Franklin out, Franklin is still the more talented player. He will help push Missouri to a big road win, and inch closer to an SEC Championship date with Alabama. Give me Mizzou.
Kansas at Iowa State(-5.5): The Cyclones are tough at home, but Kansas just got their first conference win since 2010. Can they make it two in a row? Maybe, but I’m not betting against the Cyclones at home. Give me Iowa State.
(4)Baylor(-9.5) at (10)Oklahoma State: The schedule starts getting tough for the Bears. Can they hold it together? This is one of those games that looks like a trap, and seeing what Okie State did to Texas last week makes me think that this will be close. I don’t think Baylor covers on the road, but they should still win.
(23)USC(-22.5) at Colorado: This still looks low even though the line is rising. Colorado just doesn’t have the talent to hang with the Condoms, even at home. Give me USC.
Boise State(-6.5) at San Diego State: The Broncos looked very good last week, and are adjusting to life without Southwick. Hedrick is capable of running this offense effectively. My question is whether the Bronco defense can step up. I’m not sure they can. I’m going with the Aztecs at home.
Washington at Oregon State(-3.5): This line has fluctuated a lot, and is off of some boards right now. On others, it is currently listed as even. This should be a great game, but the Beavers are very tough to beat in Corvallis. Give me Oregon State.