HIGH FIVE/low five
Daily Fantasy can be quite the grind ! Let us do the grinding for you with “High Five/Low Five”. Each day, we help put you in the money by presenting you with FIVE of the “top-tier” plays, as well as a quick list of FIVE “value plays”. Today’s top plays are led by Sacramento Kings‘ PG Isaiah Thomas; for a look at how last night’s picks fared scroll to the bottom of the article.
Let’s rip it up. Today’s HIGH FIVE:
Point Guard: Isaiah Thomas, SAC ($8,400): Fresh off a 39 FP game versus DEN last night, Thomas leads the Kings into Utah and will see similar success against a Jazz team that has ranked 29th versus PGs over the last two weeks. Not to mention, with DeMarcus Cousins out, he will continue to be a big part of the Kings offensive attack, even if Rudy Gay suits up, a roll he has embraced very well over the past few games. The 206 over/under (O/U) doesn’t hurt either. Roster with confidence.
Also consider: Goran Dragic, UTA ($8,100)
Shooting Guard: Gordon Heyward, UTA ($7,800): Heyward has shown no ill effects since having returned from a five-game absence, averaging 36.8 FPs since his return. With limited weapons at his side, he will be counted on to contribute across the board for his team and should have no problem doing so against the Kings. While reaching his value of 39 FPs may not happen, Heyward’s floor of about 30 FPs will be nice on a day with limited top options at the shooting guard position.
Small Forward: Kevin Durant, OKC ($12,400): It seems so easy to suggest you play KD, and though his price may be a deterrent to some, you only need to know this to realize he’s worth it on most nights: No player at his position provides a 45-50 FP floor, let alone a 60-70 FP upside. In fact, it could be said that his floor is equal to the upside of the other players at his position. If you can fit him in there and feel confident with the rest of your roster, do it.
Also consider: Evan Turner, PHI ($6,700)
Power Forward: Blake Griffin, LAC ($10,100): With over 40 FPs in seven out of his last nine games, Blake has been on a tear and though a 40 FP game isn’t exactly value, there are few players at the position that you can count on for that production level on a nightly basis. Tonight, he squares off against a Bucks team ranked 27th versus PFs over the past two weeks and though the game has some risk of blowout, Mr. Griffin shouldn’t have a problem getting his. Another top choice PF tonight is Kevin Love, MIN ($10,700) especially if Joakim Noah is out. However, if Noah plays I like Blake for less money.
Also consider: Paul Millsap, ATL ($8,700)
Center: DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($7,500): With not a lot of top options at Center tonight with Cousins out and Noah a game-time decision, Jordan seems to be the safe bet against a weak Milwaukee front court. His length and athleticism should give the Bucks fits this evening, and if he can participate in the scoring as he’s done in recent games, big things should be expected. One caveat that I will add to this pick is that if Joakim Noah does indeed miss tonight’s game, Nikola Pekovic, MIN ($7,900) would become my top overall choice at C.
Point Guard: Shelvin Mack, ATL ($4,300): With Jeff Teague once again expected to be out tonight, Mack becomes the top low dollar play PG, if not the only one. In the starting role last game, Mack produced 18.2 FPs against the Bucks, which is just a few points off value for him. With tonight’s contest versus OKC expected to be higher scoring, Macks production should increase. Expect 20-25 FPs.
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams, ATL ($4,500)/Terrence Ross ($4,600): Both of these men will be seeing extra run due to injuries to Jeff Teague and DeMar DeRozan. and should have no problem reaching 20-25 FPs, maybe 30. It’s a coin flip as to which of the two is a better play, as Williams has the better matchup, but Ross figures to play a larger roll in his team’s offense.
Small Forward: P.J. Tucker, PHX ($5,100): Tucker has been consistently scoring 20 FPs per game, while flashing 35 FP upside. Tonight he gets a 76ers squad that’s been one of the worst at defending against the SF position this year, and in a game that has the highest O/U of the night. As such, he should have no problem reaching value and possibly exceeding it.
Power Forward: Derrick Williams, SAC ($4,300)/Jason Thompson, SAC ($4,400): Both of these men have performed well over the last two games with Boogie out of the lineup, and with him out again, there is no reason that trend shouldn’t continue against the Jazz tonight. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them both reach value, but if I had to choose, I’d rank Thompson slightly higher than Williams.
Center: Enes Kanter, UTA ($4,900): With not very many low-end punt options available at C tonight, Kanter is tops. Kanter’s production level is largely linked to his minutes, and though his minutes are inconsistent, his production per minute is not. As such, one should expect a fantasy output at or near his minute level. With Kanter expected to get 20-25 minutes tonight, the same in FPs should also be expected.
Also consider: Aaron Gray, SAC ($3,500)
Good luck tonight !!!
About Last NIght:
Typically, in your cash games on FanDuel.com you’re going to want to shoot for a score of approximately 300 FPs, as a score in this range will put you in the money in cash games such as Double Ups and 50/50s on almost any given night. Using this number as our goal, we are able to establish the “value threshold” (VT) or # of FPs a player needs to “reach value” for their salary on any given day in order to achieve the ideal score of 300. If we then compare their VT with their “actual FPs” (AFP) and illustrate that as a %, we are able to grade each player or pick. Just as in winning, 1.000 is optimal.
Goran Dragic, PHX ($8,000): VT: 40 AFP: 32.5 %: .813
Klay Thompson, GS ($6,200): VT: 31 AFP: 25.2 %: .813
Wilson Chandler, DEN ($6,100): VT: 30.5 AFP: 33.3 %: 1.091
LaMarcus Aldridge, POR ($11,100): VT: 55.5 AFP: 25.7 % .463
Anderson Varejao, CLE ($7,9000): VT: 39.5 AFP: 21.0 %: .532
Overall %: .707
Brian Roberts, NO ($4,700): VT: 23.5 AFP: 16.4 %: .698
Randy Foye, DEN ($5,400): VT: 27.0 AFP: 13.2 %: .488
Shawn Marion, DAL ($5,100): VT: 25.5 AFP: 15.7 %: .616
Kenneth Faried, DEN ($5,300): VT: 26.5 AFP: 37.2 %: 1.404
Timofey Mozgov, DEN ($3,800): VT19.0 AFP: 21.4 %: 1.126
Overall %: .855
TOTAL OVERALL %: .758
Aldridge’s poor game really hurt last night. However, if you played Anthony Davis things were much better. A lineup of Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, Randy Foye, Klay Thompson, Wilson Chandler, Shawn Marion, Anthony Davis, Kenneth Faried, and Timofey Mozgov from our picks would’ve scored you a 281.8 and cashed in most 50/50 and Double Up games in the one to five dollar range.