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Patrick Mills

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low five:

Point Guard: Patrick Mills, SA ($5,100): Call this the “blowout tourney play special”.  Mills has been averaging better than a FP/minute over his last ten games when he’s played more than 20 minutes.  With the Spurs favored by 16 points in tonight’s game vs. the Orlando Magic, I’m betting that Mills get 20+ minutes and produces about the 25.5 FPs he’ll need for value tonight.

Other value plays worth consideration at this position are: Darren Collison, LAC ($6,000) in the event Jamal Crawford sits again. Also, Ramon Sessions, MIL ($4,800) and Nate Wolters, MIL ($3,600) with the news that O.J. Mayo has been suspended for tonight’s game.

Shooting Guard: Chris Douglas-Roberts, CHA ($3,700): The matchup is tough here and the game will be low scoring, but Douglas-Roberts has been producing lately, and he should be able to get the 18.5 FPs needed for value.  Also consider, Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($4,200)

Small Forward: Khris Middleton, MIL ($4,600)/Jeff Adrien, MIL ($4,000): Yo, Adrien has been producing nearly 24 FPs per game over his last seven and should be able to get close to the 20 FPs he’ll need to meet value this evening against the Washington Wizards.  However, I think I like Middleton’s chances to get 23 FPs a little better, considering he’ll be starting.

Power Forward: Boris Diaw, SA ($5,100): Diaw has taken over the starting center gig in San Antonio and done well with it.  My only fear tonight is that this game could get ugly quick and a lack of minutes could hurt Diaw.  Either way, I think he can get 20 FPs, I just think hitting actual value (25.5 FPs) could be a struggle.

Center: Tiago Splitter, SA ($4,400): Splitter is a play that I really like tonight.  As mentioned previously, I think that tonight’s game in San Antonio will get ugly.  Splitter should benefit from this to the tune of 25, maybe 30 minutes tonight and thus 25 FPs or so.  If by some chance this game doesn’t end up a blow out, I think it will be because Popovich rested the big guns.  In any event, I think Splitter will benefit.

Thank you and good luck tonight !!!

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