HIGH FIVE/low five
Daily Fantasy can be quite the grind! Let us do the grinding for you with “High Five/Low Five”. Each day, we help put you in the money by presenting you with FIVE of the “top-tier” plays, as well as a quick list of FIVE “value plays”. Golden State Warriors’ PF David Lee flies high as Tuesday’s top Daily Fantasy Basketball play.
Let’s rip it up.
Point Guard: Isaiah Thomas, SAC ($7,900): Thomas hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire lately, with back to back games under 25 FPs. However, tonight he takes on a Detroit Pistons team that, despite ranking 13th vs. PGs in recent weeks, has routinely given up 30+ FPs to starting PGs over the same time frame. Value for Thomas is 39.5 FPs and I’m thinking 35 FPs or so is a reasonable projection for him this evening.
Also consider, Mike Conley, MEM ($6,700) who has topped 30 FPs in four straight games in which he’s played 30+ minutes and will be playing up in pace vs. the Portland Trailblazers tonight.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, HOU ($10,000): Harden is the most expensive SG on the board tonight by a significant margin and should also be the highest scoring as well. Whether or not he’s the most valuable is the real question. He’ll need to score 50 FPs tonight to reach value. At first look, I’m not entirely sure that’s possible given his poor performance in two previous games vs. Oklahoma City. However, on second look, a few things jump out at me:
For starters, Harden shot the ball poorly in both those games (.320), yet over his last five he’s shooting lights out (.516). So he comes into tonight’s game on fire. Perhaps more importantly, the Thunder will once again be without defensive stalwart Thabo Sefolosha. Sefolosha’s absence has played a big part in why the Thunder rank just 28th over the past 15 days vs. opposing SGs, and have given up back to back 40 point games to Jodie Meeks and Gerald Green. Harden is certainly more talented than either of those players, and while 40 actual points may not be in the cards tonight, 45- 50 FPs certainly is. Roster with the confidence.
Small Forward: Kevin Durant, OKC ($12,000): Durant will be the highest scoring SF today, I have no doubts about that. However, with a value threshold of 60 FPs, I’m not sure he’ll be worth it. To be fair, Durant has torched the Rockets twice this year, to the tune of almost 52 FPs per game, but both those games were without Westbrook and the Rockets are playing much better now.
Durant is the easy choice at SF tonight, but if you can make a more difficult choice on less expensive players, it could really pay off. Roster Durant if you must, but with caution and keep in mind that anything less than a 50 FP game means that you probably just wasted a critical $2,000 of your salary cap.
Also consider, Rudy Gay, SAC ($7,700) in a nice matchup with Detroit. Pair him with a value pick for similar production at a better value than you may get from Durant and use the difference in salary to spend up at other positions.
Power Forward: David Lee, GS ($7,800): With 37 minutes played in his last game, it seems that Lee will be receiving his usual 35+ minutes, so long as the game remains close as it should tonight with a spread of just five. In his last three games in which he’s played over 35 minutes, Lee has averaged nearly 40 FPs. He’ll need 39 FPs to reach value tonight, and given normal minutes, should have no problem doing so against a Dallas Mavericks’ defense that has given up the 2nd most FPs to opposing PFs over the last 15 days.
Center: Marc Gasol, MEM ($7,300): Gasol has been averaging nearly 36 FPs per game over his last nine, which is exactly the number he’ll need tonight to reach value. As stated earlier, the Grizzlies will be playing slightly up in pace tonight, vs. the Portland Trailblazers. This should give Gasol a few more opportunities than normal to produce. Add in that Portland ranks just 17th in defending the center position, and you quickly see that there is little reason that Gasol shouldn’t be good for 35 FPs tonight.