Part of winning fantasy baseball leagues is knowing when to sell high on certain players and when to buy low on others.
One guy that has emerged as a great sell high option is Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco.
I was very high on Mesoraco coming into the season and often wrote that he should have been a catcher that everyone should have targeted on draft day and his start to the season has provided great value for those who own him.
That being said, it does make a little sense to cash in on his great start while you can.
Due to injuries, Mesoraco has played in only 29 games to this point, but in that span has posted a nice .333/.377/.667 line with nine homers and 27 RBI. While I expected big things from Mesoraco this season, not even I would have predicted that he would be sitting with a 1.044 OPS at the beginning of June.
Realistically his numbers can’t go anywhere but down.
Two statistics that really jump out at me as indicating that Mesoraco is in line for regression are his HR/FB Rate (27.3%) and his BABIP.
That 27.3 % number would have been the second best mark in all of baseball last season behind only Chris Davis. Mesoraco, even though he has become a fly ball dominant hitter (41.8% Fly Ball Rate in 2014 to 33.8% in 2013), realistically can’t keep knocking the ball out of the yard at this rate, even though he is playing in a homer friendly ballpark.
Mesoraco’s average will likely regress as well.
His average currently is being inflated by a .371 BABIP, which is over 100 points higher than his career numbers.
While Mesoraco will set career highs across the board this season, it is highly unlikely that he keeps raking at a .333 clip.
We are still in line to see the best season of his career from Mesoraco, and he is a player to hold in keeper and dynasty formats based on his age.
However if you are in standard leagues, shopping him is something to consider.
You will get much more of a return by moving him now rather than a month or so from now.
He’s still going to finish with a very good season providing he is healthy the rest of the year. However there is a good chance that we have already seen his best.