Should you sell Johnny Cueto and Tim Hudson?

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San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Hudson (17) reacts after having the bases loaded during the third inning. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Sell high options:

Tim Hudson, Giants: Now, this is not a knock on Hudson at all.  It’s just that he cannot possibly be as dominant as he has been thus far.  The 38-year-old is 6-2 with a stellar 1.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  Huddy has given up only 18 earned runs all season.  His careeer ERA of 3.40 is very good.  I am guessing that is where his season number will end up is within a quarter-run of that mark.  That means that his ERA from here on out will be around 4.  Not bad, but not that of a staff ace either, which is where his value puts him right now.  His value will never be higher.

Anibal Sanchez, Tigers: Sanchez is in the midst of the most dominant stretch of his career.  His has given up three hits or less in his three starts.  That is dominant by every definition of the word.  His ERA now sits at 2.15 and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.89.  Again, this is an unsustainable pace.  His average draft position this year was 67.  His numbers right now are that of a first rounder.  See if you can parlay him into one as well.  There is nowhere to go but down.

Johnny Cueto, Reds: The 28-year-old Cueto has been nothing short of briliant, posting a 1.97 ERA and a video-game like 0.79 WHIP.  He has pitched two shutouts already!  A closer look at the numbers reveal that a correction is already in progress.  Cueto has given up for our more runs only twice this year, but they have both occurred in his last four starts.  Expect him to end up near his career numbers of a 3.39 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Great numbers to be sure, but that also means that his numbers from here on out will be a WHIP around 1.4 and an ERA near 4.  He should net you a lot in a trade right now.  In redraft leagues, shop him around.

Come back tomorrow for option 1-b, the closers!

 

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Tags: Anibal Sanchez Cole Hamels David Price Johnny Cueto Tim Hudson

  • iamthesgt

    Your analysis of regression is incorrect. You should not expect their final numbers to be similar to their career ones, you should expect their future numbers to be similar. So Tim Hudson and Johnny Cueto will regress, but just because they’ve outperformed their career numbers doesn’t mean they will underperform them going forward. This is the same fallacy as asking what the probability of a head is after 10 tails in a row. It’s still low.