Over the next week, we will be going over the buy low and sell high options for each position. We will follow the positions the way that the powers that be in baseball decided. Since this is the third installment, we will focus on position 3, which is first base!
As with each baseball season, there are plenty of players that are well over or well under their career averages. Finding the players that will either shed their horrid slumps, or cool off after hot starts can be the difference between winning and losing your league.
How does one go about finding the overachievers and underachievers? Season numbers vs. careeer numbers are a good place to start. But everyone has to have a breakout season sometime. What if a players is in the midst of one of those? Sometimes you just have to go with your gut…….and hope you are reading the right column!
Buy low candidates:
Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: Yes, his power numbers have waned since he hit 40 home runs in 2009. They have gone down almost every year since. His 12 home runs so far are nice. They put him on pace for around 28, which he has not done since 2010. The reason I am saying buy low is because of his batting average. Gonzalez is hitting just .247, and loss of power or not, the average has always been good. He has not hit below .277 in a full season. Nothing about him says regression, so I expect his average to climb to at least .270, and likely higher. Whether that means more power or not really is not the point. It should help him get close to 100 RBI again. A feat he has done all but once since 2007. The year that he missed the century mark? He had 99.
Chris Davis, Orioles: Someone who drafted him expecting a repeat of last year is likely about ready to scream due to his .234 average and nine home runs. The fact remains that Davis has 86 home runs and 223 RBI in his last two seasons. He won’t hit 50 homers again this year, but 30 is a realistic expectation. Meaning that the power is likely coming soon. Davis’ career average is .263, so he will likely raise the average to .250 at the least. Trust me, you want to buy him before he goes off, not during.
Eric Hosmer, Royals: He likely won’t ever live up to his hype, but he has had double digit homers and steals every year of his career. The three homers and zero steals that he has this season are certainly a huge disappointment, and the Hosmer owners that haven’t dropped him yet are likely looking for someone to take him. Two of his three home runs have come in the last three games, so this could be the beginning of a hot streak.