The 2014 season has been not only a curious one for St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday, but most of his Cardinals teammates as well.
After a 2013 season in which the Cardinals seemed to be near automatic hitting with runners on base, they can’t seem to get a big hit up and down the lineup.
Holiday is a big part of that.
You started to notice things go in the wrong direction last season for Holliday, but he still finished the 2013 campaign with a respectable .300/.389/.490 line to go along with 22 homers and 94 RBI.
I thought Holliday was a risk coming into the season and the signs are even more troubling than I would have believed at this point.
His overall line has dropped to .265/.380/.378 and his .758 OPS is down over 100 points from last season. Add in the fact that Holiday has only four long balls on the season and his owners have to be scratching their heads.
Some guys are worth targeting to buy low on, Holiday is not one.
If you can get anything close to draft day value for him I would suggest doing so now.
The decline in power is very troublesome as Holliday’s ISO has dropped from .190 to .113 and his line drive rate has dropped from 21 percent to 16 percent.
Those are terrible signs for owners hoping for a big second half.
His HR/FB rate could climb a little from the 6 percent mark it is currently and while Holliday will hit more than four homers I wouldn’t bank on him finishing the season with 20. The signs say getting to 15 will be a challenge in itself.
He is also a guy who has experienced back problems the past couple of seasons.
The 2014 season is not a small sample size as he has already had 238 at bats. Things aren’t likely to get much better so I really suggest trying to move him now.
It’s very possible that Holliday’s days of being a fantasy star are long behind him.