As some of you already know, I pick every 1-A vs. 1-A game against the spread for the entire season. I have been doing this for five years now, and try to improve every year.
What I do is take the mean of the average odds at the top five Vegas Casinos and pick against that spread. I will round to the nearest half point so as to avoid picking against even numbers. This way I either win or lose each game. Ties are for Last year I set a preseason goal of 55%. I finished at 55.03%. This year, I am setting a goal of 57%. I promise you that this is not as easy as it looks.
For any of you college football aficionados out there, you are welcome to play along. Just leave your picks in the comment section.
This year I am going to do things a little differently. Instead of one big post put up the day before the first game of the week, I am going to break it up more. I will not put Saturday’s odds up until Friday to get a more accurate spread whenever possible.
So here are my first picks for the 2014 season. These will cover the games from Thursday and Friday. Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.
This is for entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for anyone losing their paycheck, life savings, or first born because of these picks. I am a simple man. I cannot have that on my conscious.
Week one is notoriously difficult since we don’t really know what to expect from many teams. I will be happy just getting half of them right this week!
(21)Texas A&M at (9)South Carolina(-10.5): I don’t like this half. The line opened at -10, and is as high as 11 in a lot of places. I get it. Nobody really knows what to expect from the Manziel-less Aggies. I am more concerned with the loss of Mike Evans. I think SC covers this.
Wake Forest at Louisiana-Monroe(-1.5): This one is moving a lot. Wake was favored by as many as three at one point. So what’s changed? Home field advantage would be my guess. ULM without Kolton Browning for the first time in years worries me. I have to take Wake.
Tulane at Tulsa(-6.5): This lined opened 20 points higher. I’m not sure Tulane is that bad. I’m not sure they are bad enough to lose to Tulsa in the first place. The Golden Hurricane were a mess last year. I like Tulane straight up!
(18)Mississippi(-10.5) vs. Boise State at Atlanta: I liked this line better at 9.5, but I still think Ole Miss covers.
Temple at Vanderbilt(-12.5): This line is down five, and keeps falling. I guess I’m not the only one that isn’t feeling the Robinette vibe from Vandy. That said, Temple is awful. I have to take Vandy.
Rutgers at Washington State(-7.5): This is way too low. Give me the Cougars for my lock of the night!
BYU(-16.5) at Connecticut: UConn hasn’t seen anyone like Taysom Hill, let alone tried to defend someone like him. I’m taking BYU.
Bowling Green(-7.5) at Western Kentucky: BGSU was one of the best teams in the MAC last year, and lost very little from that team. I’m taking them until they give me a reason not to.
Colorado State vs. Colorado(-3.5) at Denver: This line opened at -13.5, and probably should have stayed close to that. I realize this is a rivalry, but Colorado is not nearly as bad as they were two years ago. The Ralphies cover his with ease!
UTSA at Houston(-11.5): This will likely be a high scoring game, but this line is too low. John O’Korn is the best QB you’ve never heard of. He is going to turn the Roadrunners into road pizza.
UNLV at Arizona(-23.5): Hmmm…..Arizona lost way too much from last year to be favored by this much in the opening game. The Rebels looked good down the stretch last year. There is no way Arizona covers this.
I will have my picks for the rest of the weekend up tomorrow evening since there is an 8am game from Dublin, Ireland on Saturday!