As some of you already know, I pick every 1-A vs. 1-A game against the spread for the entire season. I have been doing this for five years now, and try to improve every year.
What I do is take the mean of the average odds at the top five Vegas Casinos and pick against that spread. I will round to the nearest half point so as to avoid picking against even numbers. This way I either win or lose each game. Ties are for Last year I set a preseason goal of 55%. I finished at 55.03%. This year, I am setting a goal of 57%. I promise you that this is not as easy as it looks.
For any of you college football aficionados out there, you are welcome to play along. Just leave your picks in the comment section.
This year I am going to do things a little differently. Instead of one big post put up the day before the first game of the week, I am going to break it up more. I will not put Saturday’s odds up until Friday to get a more accurate spread whenever possible.
Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.
This is for entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for anyone losing their paycheck, life savings, or first born because of these picks. I am a simple man. I cannot have that on my conscience.
Week one is notoriously difficult since we don’t really know what to expect from many teams. I will be happy just getting half of them right this week!
This will cover the early games on Saturday. I will have the ones for the late slate up first thing tomorrow morning.
Central Florida(-1.5) vs. Penn State at Dublin, Ireland: This line is flopping like a fish on a hook. Penn State was the favorite when it opened, now UCF is back on top. No matter, UCF has more talent on the field. They should cover this.
(7)UCLA(-21.5) at Virginia: I don’t like the half. Virginia usually has a solid defense, but I don’t think they have anyone as dynamic as Hundley in the ACC. Give me the Bruins.
Appalachian State at Michigan(-34.5): This is not 2007. The Mountaineers lost eight games in their last year of 1-AA last season. The year before they upset Michigan in ’07, they were ranked at the FCS level for the entire season. That said, I still think Michigan has some questions on offense. Can they win by 35? That’s a pretty large number. I’m going to say no, but they will get close. Say 41-10 Wolvies.
(5)Ohio State(-15.5) at Navy: This line has plummeted since Miller went down, and rightfully so. I still think it’s too high. Give me Navy.
Western Michigan at Purdue(-10.5): I know the Broncos are bad, but Purdue honestly isn’t that much better. Definitely not double digits better. Give me WMU.
Troy at UAB(-2.5): Did I miss something? The Blazers were in my bottom five for most of last year. Give me Troy straight up!
Georgia Southern at North Carolina State(-20.5): This should be nothing new for the Panthers. They have been getting kicked around by the SEC for the better part of a decade. Getting destroyed by an ACC school should be no different, it may just maybe a little less painful. Give me NC State
Boston College(-16.5) at Massachusetts: All I know is that UMass was awful, even for a MAC team, last year. Give me BC.
The odds for the 2:30 kickoffs and later games will be up tomorrow morning!