As some of you already know, I pick every 1-A vs. 1-A game against the spread for the entire season. I have been doing this for five years now, and try to improve every year.
What I do is take the mean of the average odds at the top five Vegas Casinos and pick against that spread. I will round to the nearest half point so as to avoid picking against even numbers. This way I either win or lose each game. Ties are for Last year I set a preseason goal of 55%. I finished at 55.03%. This year, I am setting a goal of 57%. I promise you that this is not as easy as it looks.
For any of you college football aficionados out there, you are welcome to play along. Just leave your picks in the comment section.
This year I am going to do things a little differently. Instead of one big post put up the day before the first game of the week, I am going to break it up more. I will not put Saturday’s odds up until Friday to get a more accurate spread whenever possible.
Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.
This is for entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for anyone losing their paycheck, life savings, or first born because of these picks. I am a simple man. I cannot have that on my conscience.
Week one is notoriously difficult since we don’t really know what to expect from many teams. I will be happy just getting half of them right this week!
This will focus on the mid-day games today. The early games for today are here. I will have the ones for the late game up by noon!
Florida Atlantic at (22)Nebraska(-21.5): I don’t like the half, and the Owls are better than they have been. Then again, Nebraska has so many weapons on offense, that it will be hard for them not to cover this. Give me Nebraska.
California at Northwestern(-10.5): This line has been steadily dropping, and I see why. Jared Goff is underrated in the quarterback haven that is the 2014 Pac 12. Venric Mark will give the Cal defense fits, and I think Northwestern wins, but I’m not sure they will run off with it. Give me Cal because of that half.
West Virginia vs. (2)Alabama(-26.5) at Atlanta: I get it. The talent level between these two teams is immense. Still, I have a hard time taking a team for this large of a spread with an unproven quarterback. I’m taking WVU, even though this will still be a convincing win for the Tide.
Rice at (17)Notre Dame(-21.5): I hate the half. Rice lost a lot with Taylor McHargue graduating from a team that won their conference last year. A new QB, in one of the toughest places to play, is not a good sign for the Owls. I think I have to take Notre Dame.
Marshall(-23.5) at Miami(OH): The Redhawks were cover bait last year, and probably will be again this year. Raheem Cato and company are going to eat them alive. Give me the Herd.
Arkansas at (6)Auburn(-19.5): This looks really low, considering how awful the Piggies were at times last year. Give me Auburn for my lock of the day!
(16)Clemson at (12)Georgia(-7.5): The Bulldogs have to be drooling a little more than usual after seeing the Gamecock D get carved up by A&M. They had better hope that doesn’t distract them from the task at hand: beating a Clemson team that lost almost every offensive skill player. I have to take Georgia here. Gurley alone should be worth a TD, then when you tack on home field advantage, it gets pretty clear.
Ohio at Kent State(-2.5) The Soliches were a good team last year, but Tettleton is gone. How will they be this year? Your guess is as good as mine. When in doubt, go with the home team. Give me Kent.