Sep 28, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) scores a touchdown during the first half against the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

NCAA Football: Odds & Predictions for late games and Sunday

As some of you already know, I pick every 1-A vs. 1-A game against the spread for the entire season.  I have been doing this for five years now, and try to improve every year.

What I do is take the mean of the average odds at the top five Vegas Casinos and pick against that spread.  I will round to the nearest half point so as to avoid picking against even numbers.  This way I either win or lose each game.  Ties are for  Last year I set a preseason goal of 55%.  I finished at 55.03%.  This year, I am setting a goal of 57%.  I promise you that this is not as easy as it looks.

For any of you college football aficionados out there, you are welcome to play along.  Just leave your picks in the comment section.

This year I am going to do things a little differently.  Instead of one big post put up the day before the first game of the week, I am going to break it up more.  I will not put Saturday’s odds up until Friday to get a more accurate spread whenever possible.

Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.

This is for entertainment purposes only.  I am not responsible for anyone losing their paycheck, life savings, or first born because of these picks.  I am a simple man.  I cannot have that on my conscience.

Week one is notoriously difficult since we don’t really know what to expect from many teams.  I will be happy just getting half of them right this week!

This will focus on the late games today.  The early games for today are here.  The mid-day picks are here.

Louisiana Tech at (4)Oklahoma(-37.5): Wow, this is a huge line.  HUGE!  I have faith in our offense and our defense, but I want to see how the RB situation will play out before I start taking massive lines like this.  Give me LT.

Idaho at Florida(-36.5): Idaho was firmly entrenched in my bottom five last year, and would have gone winless if New Mexico State weren’t so horrid. Florida is healthy, which alone should be enough for them to cover this.  Give me the Gators.

Fresno State at (15)USC(-21.5): With all of the things going on in Trojan land right now, I can’t see how they cover this.  Give me Fresno.

Southern Mississippi at Mississippi State(-30.5): Huge line, but the Eagles have been bad for two years.  The Bulldogs had better cover this if they want to be taken seriously in the SEC.  Give me Mississippi State.

UTEP at New Mexico(-7.5): Kasey Carrier was the heart of the New Mexico offense last year.  I think they have trouble moving on without him.  Give me UTEP.

North Texas at Texas(-25.5): The Charlie Strong era officially kicks off, and the Longhorns still have enough players to field a team!  UNT is not a bad team.  They did make it to a bowl last year, after all.  I don’t see Texas covering this.  They have looked lethargic pre-October for the last two years.  Give me the Joe Greene’s!

(1)Florida State(-18.5) vs. Oklahoma State at Jerry World: This honestly looks low. Oklahoma State is a shadow of the team that they were two years ago.  This will get ugly, and fast.  Give me FSU.

(14)Wisconsin vs. (13)LSU(-4.5) at Houston: This may as well be a home game for LSU.  Both teams have QB concerns, so I will go with the team with more talent around them.  That would be LSU, and it’s not even close.  Give me LSU.

(25)Washington(-17.5) at Hawaii: This looks high for an offense that lost Keith Price, Bishop Sankey, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.  That and Hawaii usually plays well on the islands.  I’m taking Hawaii here.

Utah State at Tennessee(-6.5): This line is backwards.  Chuckie Keaton could play in the SEC.  He will prove it here.

SMU at (10)Baylor(-33.5): Okay, I know SMU’s defense was pathetic last year, but this is kind of ridiculous, no?  The Mustangs have a decent offense.  Enough to stay within five touchdowns anyway.  Give me SMU.

Miami(FL) at Louisville(-3.5): This line is backwards.  Duke Johnson is the best player on the field.  I’m taking the safe pick, which is Miami.

Come back next week for analysis of this weekend’s games, the results of my picks, and of course, more picks!

Tags: NCAA Football Picks Against The Spead

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