Start your fantasy studs every week! That is what the experts will tell you, and that’s what your friends will tell you. However, that’s not what I am telling you. That’s how you get beat in fantasy football.
Remember last year when everyone made the mistake of starting Drew Brees at Seattle, and he finished outside the top 25 at quarterback that week? Remember how it was week 13, and it cost some people a playoff spot? Well, even our fantasy studs are vulnerable to some match-ups.
I get it, you want to remain loyal to your starting quarterback, but what you might not realize is that Aaron Rodgers won’t know that you didn’t start him this week. The only reason most people are starting Rodgers this week strictly revolves around the perception that you have to start your fantasy studs. Your friends won’t make fun of you for starting Aaron Rodgers, but they’ll make fun of you if he blows up and you benched him.
Well I’m here today to explain to you why you need to take that gamble.
Let’s make something clear: nobody is safe. Rodgers is my number one ranked quarterback for the entire season. However, this is a weekly ranking, and I put him 12th at quarterback this week. I won’t just do that without a reason. Here’s why: I crunched some numbers on the Seahawks defense last season. Of course I can’t project what they will do this year, but I try my best. So I went back looked at every single quarterback that played the Seahawks, and the results I got definitely weren’t in favor of starting Aaron Rodgers. Here are some fun stats from the Seahawks defense from 2013: (based on the standard scoring of four points per passing touchdown)
Points against starting Aaron Rodgers:
- Seahawks played a top-10 quarterback five times last season (Colin Kaepernick twice, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees). Those quarterbacks managed to only average 11.3 fantasy points per game, and had an average finish of 24th among quarterbacks for that week.
- Seahawks managed to hold the opposing quarterbacks to an average of 9.16 fantasy points per game and an average finish of 24th amongst quarterbacks that week.
- Seahawks defense only allowed four quarterbacks to finish in the top 20 quarterbacks for that respected week. Meaning that 12 failed to become a top 20 QB when they played Seattle. The ones who succeeded were, Matt Schaub, Andrew Luck, Mike Glennon, and Matt Ryan.
- Seahawks never allowed a top 10 quarterback scorer for the week that their matchup occurred. Only one quarterback even managed to make the top 12 in the week they played Seattle. That was Matt Schaub.
- Matt Schaub finished with the highest point total against the Seahawks defense last season. (18.7 Fantasy Points)
Were those numbers not enough for you? Don’t worry, I have more.
- Seahawks defense at home gave up a total of 60.04 fantasy points to quarterbacks, which is an average of 7.5 fantasy points per game. Those quarterbacks averaged a 27th place weekly finish at the position.
- Seahawks defense on the road gave up a total of 86.52 fantasy points to quarterbacks, which is an average of 10.8 fantasy points per game. That is an average finish of 22nd at the quarterback position.
- Only one quarterback over the past two seasons has thrown for 200-plus yards and multiple touchdowns at Seattle in the same week. That player was Tom Brady and he also threw multiple interceptions in that game.
- Tom Brady finished with 19 fantasy points in that game and he threw the ball 58 times. You heard that correctly, 58 pass attempts, 19 fantasy points.
Playing in Seattle isn’t a joking matter. Seattle lost some pieces on defense, sure, but they still have the Legion of Boom intact, and that is a big reason why this Seattle defense has been so stingy against opposing quarterbacks. One of the arguments that I’ve heard is that the penalty flags will be flying, which they may be. If they are, you do realize that those stats don’t count, right? So it’s not like Rodgers is going to come out and put up 400 yards. That may equal more touchdowns, but all of those may go to Eddie Lacy.
It’s dangerous, Aaron Rodgers is great, but the Seattle defense is motivated. You’ve been warned. Start Aaron Rodgers at your own risk. I have Rodgers as a fringe top 12 quarterback play this week.