Oct 3, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants pitcher Jean Machi (63) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers defeated the Giants 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Jean Machi is enjoying some unexpected success out of the San Francisco Giants bullpen. Of course, it is an extremely small sample size out of the bullpen so far, and he pitches in a park that seems to create illusions when it comes to evaluating pitchers. However, for him to even be here is a little surprising. Machi didn’t make his MLB debut until he was 30 years old, which was in 2012. He started pitching in the minor leagues in 2002 in the Phillies organization, and from 2006 to 2009 he was stuck in AA with three different organizations with very mediocre numbers and 258 innings, mainly in relief. The Pirates finally gave him a shot in AAA, and he pitched pretty well for a season plus but didn’t make it to the Majors. In 2011, he went to the Mexican League, where he dominated, not with an overpowering strikeout rate, but by not giving up a homer in the hitter friendly league. The Giants signed him towards the end of 2011 and let him pitch in AAA. Then in 2012, Machi was finally given his shot in the big leagues, pitching in 8 games for San Francisco (after a bunch of appearances in AAA). So far in 2013, he has been successful, but has had a stint in AAA as well.

Looking at Pitch F/X data, Machi’s closest release point comparison seems to be Mike Adams, a successful reliever with below average velocity and very little as far as platoon splits. Here is a comparison of the two right-handed relievers’ mechanics at the time of release point (the Adams screenshot is obviously from 2012, and at a little bit different angle).

Looks pretty similar to me. Adams head seems to be a little more straight, but Machi’s arm slot is slightly higher. In graph form, this is what Machi’s release point looks like:

So we have a comparison release point wise to a big league reliever, but what is Machi’s stuff like? Here is Machi’s spin and speed chart, labelled by the MLBAM tags:

According to my rough classifications, the fastball is pretty good, averaging 94 MPH, with 11.7 percent of all pitches thrown over 95 MPH. It is at least a big league fastball, even above average. You can get a lot of MLB hitters out with that fastball.

Since we saw some variance in release point and the head in a not exactly desirable spot in his delivery, what does his command look like? Here is his strike zone with all the pitches he has thrown so far in Pitch F/X games:

There is a definite concentration of pitches thrown low and glove side (which for him, is inside to lefties, outside to righties). Here are his average locations, using my rough classifications:

Surprisingly for a right-hander, his average pitch is actually on the glove side of the strike zone. This could be because of his delivery or the fact that he seems to stand on the 1st base side of the rubber. Most of his pitches are going to be inside to lefties or outside to right-handers. His fastball is thrown higher than the average pitch and the change a little lower, which is standard, but his curveball is on the far glove side part of the zone. In the spin and speed chart above, we saw that the MLBAM tags classified some of them as sliders (but since most of them were classified as curveballs, I called them all curveballs, just to go with a majority, and there was no reason to differentiate the pitch). The location makes calling it a slider a lot of sense, as curves are usually going to be in the low middle part of the plate, and sliders on the low glove side part of the plate, one of the reasons it is such a heavy platoon split pitch (a low and inside pitch with some velocity taken off of it is a rather easy pitch to hit). Machi treats the pitch like a slider, throwing just one of the curve/slider pitch to lefties, at least from what I can find. So it makes sense to call it a slider, but clearly it is not a very hard slider, as the original spin and speed chart shows, as most of them are in a 81-84 MPH slider range. This is usually what you would see in a slider from a pitcher with average starting pitcher velocity (~91-92 MPH). This will limit its effectiveness, and he will have to use it only with the platoon advantage, sequence with it well, and locate it well to have any real success with it. The fastball is his best pitch against right-handers, though he isn’t afraid to throw his changeup to both righties and lefties, which is probably why he doesn’t locate it arm side on average (like most pitches use their changeups, trying to keep it away from hitters that have the platoon advantage).

So can Machi continue to get hitters out in the big leagues? He won’t be a dominant reliever, but I could see him having success, with an ability to get lefties out with his fastball and changeup. How you view the changeup probably shapes how you view Machi as a big leaguer. That pitch will be his out pitch, more so than his slider, since it is less reliant on platoon splits. But the fastball is real, and I think Machi is too.

May 1, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics first baseman Nate Freiman (7) hits a RBI-double scoring third baseman Josh Donaldson (20, not pictured) against the Los Angeles Angels during the third inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Nate Freiman is one of the bigger players in all of MLB baseball, standing at a listed 6 feet 7 inches. He was old for the level in 2012, but he had a nice year in AA for the Padres organization. The Astros then selected the 1st baseman in the Rule 5 draft, but designated him for assignment before the start of the season. Rather than going unclaimed and returning to the Padres, he was claimed by the Athletics, who have kept him on the roster since then. Frankly, he hasn’t been very good so far, not showing the power that he should produce with the frame, but has about an average strikeout rate and a plus walk rate so far. Since Freiman fascinated me in AA last year, I wanted to look at the Pitch F/X data of his time in the Majors so far, and see if we can project Freiman going forward.

First, let’s look at his spray chart according to Texas Leaguers, and see where the right-handed batter is hitting the baseball:

He has been rather balanced so far it seems, showing power to both his pull side and up the middle (and a little the other way as well). While, as mentioned above, the numbers haven’t shown it, he has hit the ball with some serious authority, with an average batted ball distance of 211 feet according to Baseball Heat Maps (267 if you tease out the balls hit under 150 feet).

This opposing pitcher release point chart will show us the kind of pitchers Freiman has faced, along with the results of the pitches:

Despite swinging through a healthy amount of pitches against lefties, he is putting a lot in play and having good results. The balls he is putting in play against righties all seem to be outs, but two of the three pitches he has seen from far out righties have been put in play, which is a good sign. This spin and speed chart will show us what kinds of pitches he is seeing:

While he is having success against high spin curves (usually lefty curves), he seems to be having a lot of problems with sliders (those pitches between 80-85 MPH with little to mid spin).

This is where Freiman has been pitched on average, by result and by (MLBAM tags, though I combined all fastball types) pitch type:

Not surprisingly, he is seeing a lot of arm side changes from lefties, and curves down the middle and low, but seeing a lot of sliders in is surprising. Most sliders are thrown to the glove side of the plate and with the platoon advantage, so you would expect most of the sliders to be away from him. The fastballs and average pitch are thrown in normal spots, on the slight inside part of the plate for Freiman (with the fastball a little higher than the average pitch). His runs scored plays (homers or RBI plays) are on pitches high and on the outside part of the strike zone, while his whiffs and other contact plays are almost in identical spots (the outside part of the plate).

As you might expect from both the strike zone chart and the fact that he is a gigantic slugger that was old for the minors, his bat speed may be a question. Freiman has seen 54 fastballs 92 MPH or over (what you might call “above average” fastballs). Here are where they were located along with result:

He obviously isn’t doing much with them, getting a lot of them in the middle or the inside part of the plate, and really only getting a couple of hits and a lot of swinging strikes. Something I thought about when looking at this strike zone is his height. The strike zone above is just the traditional strike zone, not taking into account height. Notice that some low pitches in the strike zone were called balls, while balls above the traditional strike zone were called strikes. So here is his called strike zone (along with the traditional strike zone for bearings) to give us an idea of how umpires are calling pitches against him:

There only appears to be one absurdly high called strike, and there is one that was really low too, so I don’t think the strike zone caused by height is a real factor for Freiman (or, it hasn’t been one so far).

Freiman clearly has the raw power to succeed in the big leagues, and he has flashed it in games so far this season. There are some questions about whether or not he can really hit big league fastballs, but his power comes from balls up as well. So for now, he is a high risk high reward hitter, as the pitch that can get him out is the same pitch and location he can launch out of the park. This makes sequencing important, and this is where slow bat speed sluggers usually get exposed at the big league level. They have to sit on fastballs and then big league pitchers throw them quality breaking balls and they swing too early or at pitches out of the strike zone. This is what makes Freiman’s early struggles on slider like pitches (even with the weird location) concerning. If he can’t hit (or select the right breaking balls to hit) he is in a lot of trouble and the raw power will never be fully tapped and he will be destined to be a AAA slugger. I don’t think he has the hitting tools to be an every day player (as he needs to really hit almost like an all-star to be an even average player as he has no positional value and his defense is poor), but if he proves he can recognize breaking pitches (the sample seems to small to really tell with the data right now), he could be a good platoon player or good bench bat for a National League team.