Matt Ryan (2) has thrilled fantasy football owners all season long and has a nice matchup against the Detroit Lions on Saturday Night Football week 16. Find out who else to play in your league this week. Photo by Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Well kids, the championships are upon us!

Week 16 of the 2012 fantasy football season kicks off tomorrow night with a Saturday Night Special, and fantasy owners everywhere are ecstatic because it isn’t a Thursday Night Special. Unfortunately, the matchup may just as well have been on a Thursday because I think we’re in for another bad NFL game as the Atlanta Falcons travel to the great, (probably) white north to take on the Detroit Lions.

Given that this isn’t a Thursday night game, and given that this is Championship week for most fantasy owners, I’m not going to highlight three sleepers in this game like I’ve done earlier this season. Don’t risk your league title on a sleeper pick! Instead I’m going to offer my overall thoughts on the relevant fantasy starters on each team.

For the visiting Falcons, we have to start with QB Matt Ryan. While Ryan has been a solid QB1 all season, his last non-Sunday appearance left a lot of fantasy owners in mourning as he put up a pathetic 12 points against the New Orleans Saints in Week 13. Over Weeks 14 and 15, Ryan has averaged over 25 fantasy points and thrown for 2 and 3 TDs respectively. Against a Lions’ defense which has allowed 20+ points to opposing QBs over the past three games, I look for Ryan to continue his groove and be a solid QB1 start once again.

In the Falcons backfield, Michael Turner has scored a TD in his last five games, salvaging what would be pedestrian numbers as he has averaged a mere 42 yards per game over the same span. If Turner scores a TD he rewards owners, but if he doesn’t find the end zone he is very likely to put up single-digit fantasy points. Chances are if you are playing in your league championship you’ve gotten there without relying on Turner as much more than a flex player which is where I would rank him against a better-than-average Lions run defense. If you don’t need Turner I’d recommend a different option this weekend.

Dec 16, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez (88) celebrates a touchdown in the first half against the New York Giants at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons receiving corps has continued to perform pretty well for owners.

Tony Gonzalez simply defies time and age, and stands as the #1 TE in fantasy football in standard leagues through 15 weeks of the season. With TDs and double-digit production in two of his last three games, Gonzalez should definitely be in your lineup this week unless you happen to also own Jimmy Graham. (Graham is the only TE I’d rank higher than Gonzo this week.)

As far as the Falcons WRs are concerned, if you own Julio Jones you probably couldn’t be happier as the early-round pick has paid nice dividends during fantasy crunch time with a 21-point, two-TD game against the Giants in Week 15. Jones is a WR1 this week and I look for him to have another big game. Roddy White, on the other hand, has been dealing with not only a knee issue, but also with declining production here in the latter part of the season. White did put up 17 points in the Falcons’ Week 14 loss in Carolina, his only double-digit game since Week 11. White has only scored one TD since Week 6 and I don’t expect Roddy to be as productive against the Lions Saturday night. If you have another option at WR I’d recommend replacing White this week.

For the host Detroit Lions, it is hard to know what to expect. In 2012 the Lions have found minimal success on their home field with a 2-4 record thus far. While the record is bad, the Lions have actually been quite competitive at home – their last three losses have come by a combined 9 points. I believe that Detroit will be primed to spoil Atlanta’s bid for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, unfortunately I don’t think they have the healthy personnel make it happen this week.

QB Matthew Stafford picked a terrible time to play his worst NFL game in two seasons, and likely cost many fantasy teams a loss in Week 15 with his 0-TD, 12-point performance last week against the Cardinals. While I would like to believe that Stafford will bounce back with a top-tier game against Atlanta, I can’t predict that he will. The Lions’ receiving corps is dealing with too many injuries right now and I have very low expectations for Stafford this week. For fantasy owners who have no choice but to start him, hope for a big Falcon lead early and lots of garbage time numbers for Stafford…

Dec 9, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Detroit Lions running back Mikel Leshoure (25) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Packers won 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Lions’ RB Mikel Leshoure has been on a similar path to the Falcons’ Michael Turner – if he scores a TD he puts up solid numbers but if he is held out of the end zone single-digit production is almost guaranteed. While Leshoure has scored in four out of the Lions’ last five games, the Falcons have only allowed one rushing TD over their last three games. I would not give Leshoure more than a flex consideration this week unless you have no other alternative.

As I mentioned, the Lions’ receiving corps is a mess right now. Other than Calvin Johnson, who by sheer volume of targets and other-planetary skills has posted seven straight 100-yard games, you can’t trust any part of the Lions’ receivers. Kris Durham has been the WR2 over the past two weeks, seeing 14 targets and catching only five for 68 yards. It doesn’t look like TE1 Brandon Pettigrew will play this week, which means the TE role goes to Tony Scheffler. Scheffler has been Stafford’s #2 option in Weeks 14 and 15 with 17 targets, however, he has only grabbed six catches for 56 yards. Other than Calvin, steer clear of the Lions’ receivers this game.

As I said in the opening, while this game is a Saturday night affair (and on ESPN which means it is really Monday Night Football on Saturday) we are going to think it is a Thursday night game because I see the Falcons continuing to roll. While I don’t think they are going to shutout the Lions like they did the Giants last week, I look for Atlanta to establish a big lead heading into halftime and winning the game by a TD at least.

To all, good luck if you have a championship on the line this weekend. If you don’t have a meaningful matchup this week, 2013 will be here before we know it… (Assuming we make it through December 21, that is!)

Happy Holidays everybody and enjoy the games this weekend!

The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders face off again tonight in a Thursday Night Football showcase. Check out who should be in your fantasy football lineup from tonight’s game. Photo by Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Week 14 is upon us. If you are a fantasy football owner, and you are reading this breakdown, it likely means that your fantasy football squad is either in the playoffs or still in the hunt for the playoffs. Congratulations! (Or, it may mean that your teams are out of the running and you are addicted to either fantasy football or my commentary on these Thursday night games. Either way, I kindly suggest seeking some counseling.)

I’m not sure what it is about this Thursday night schedule, but even the games we expect to be fantasy-relevant fall flat. I’m looking at you Drew Brees. On behalf of fantasy football owners everywhere, thanks for the 3-point outing last week in a game your team needed to stay in the playoff hunt. Ugh.

This week we have one of the top offenses (Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning) going against one of the bottom defenses (Oakland Raiders and whatever player you’d like to name) in an AFC West showdown. Let’s hope that we see a lot of scoring and a lot of TDs and given that the fantasy playoffs are upon us, here are three players you should consider playing, even on a Thursday night:

December 2, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno (27) runs with the ball during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

1. Knowshon Moreno

It pains me to type his name actually, but once Willis McGahee went down and Coach John Fox pulled the Hillman-Shuffle on us, you have to consider Moreno if for no other reason than opportunity. Since Moreno was given the starting job two weeks ago, he has averaged over 24 touches. While he hasn’t found the end zone and certainly isn’t lighting the field on fire with a sub-4 yard per carry average, Moreno should see a lot of action against the Raiders’ D which ranks dead last versus opposing RBs over the past five weeks. Expect Moreno to rush for 80 yards and to catch 3 passes for another 18 yards.

2. Darrius Heyward-Bey

DHB has been a DHBust since his double-digit effort against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10 but since fellow-WR Denarius Moore will likely match up against Denver’s top DB, Champ Bailey, Heyward-Bey should benefit from seeing more single-coverage during the game. In the season’s earlier meeting, Heyward-Bey wasn’t active as he was recovering from a concussion — having him on the field this week will allow QB Carson Palmer another veteran receiver to look for. As long as the Raiders’ OL can keep Palmer relatively clean, I look for DHB to grab 5 catches for 65 yards and score a TD.

3. Brandon Myers

December 2, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders tight end Brandon Myers (83) catches a pass in front of Cleveland Browns strong safety T.J. Ward (43) during the first quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

If you own Myers you probably don’t need me telling you to start him, but some owners might be debating Myers over a more familiar TE name like Antonio Gates, Brandon Pettigrew or even Tony Gonzalez. Myers has been fantasy football’s number-two TE over the past five weeks, falling short of the number-one spot to Jimmy Graham by less than a point. Myers has been fantasy’s most-targeted TE during that span, and this doesn’t look to change against the Broncos’ tonight. I expect Palmer to be playing from behind, and expect Myers to be an early and often target – pencil him in for at least seven catches for 60 yards and a TD.

Let’s hope this game pans out for fantasy football owners better than last week’s did, and good luck in your matchups this week!