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	<title>Fantasy CPR &#187; Baltimore Orioles</title>
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	<description>A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports</description>
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		<title>Baltimore Orioles 2013 Fantasy Baseball Preview-Birds Watcher Insight</title>
		<link>http://fantasycpr.com/2013/03/04/baltimore-orioles-2013-fantasy-baseball-preview-birds-watcher-insight/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasycpr.com/2013/03/04/baltimore-orioles-2013-fantasy-baseball-preview-birds-watcher-insight/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Mar 2013 14:18:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zachary Thompson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2013 MLB Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fantasy baseball preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Machado]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[starting 9]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasycpr.com/?p=11037</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>As we continue to look forward to opening day, Fantasy CPR will have plenty of fantasy baseball goodness that can help you do well in your draft and ultimately own your league. In addition to sleeper profiles, predictive studies, and overall strategy help, we&#8217;re going to look at each team individually with the help of [...]</p><p><a href="http://fantasycpr.com/2013/03/04/baltimore-orioles-2013-fantasy-baseball-preview-birds-watcher-insight/">Baltimore Orioles 2013 Fantasy Baseball Preview-Birds Watcher Insight</a> - <a href="http://fantasycpr.com">Fantasy CPR</a> - <a href="http://fantasycpr.com">Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_11039" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 660px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/03/7100784.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-11039" title="MLB: Spring Training-Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/03/7100784.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="432" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Heading into the 2013 MLB season, Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado looks to build on his successful second-half last year and become a fantasy baseball fixture. Find our fantasy baseball preview for Baltimore below. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>As we continue to look forward to opening day, Fantasy CPR will have plenty of fantasy baseball goodness that can help you do well in your draft and ultimately own your league. In addition to sleeper profiles, predictive studies, and overall strategy help, we&#8217;re going to look at each team individually with the help of some of the best bloggers that cover each individual team.</p>
<p>Today, we start our season previews by getting some insight on the Baltimore Orioles from Domenic A. Vadala who anchors the O&#8217;s coverage on <a href="http://www.BirdsWatcher.com">Birds Watcher</a>. There&#8217;s tons of really solid Orioles coverage on their site to delve into if you&#8217;re a Baltimore fan.</p>
<p>The questions are in italics and Domenic&#8217;s replies are give for all nine questions. These are the same questions we&#8217;ll be asking our baseball editors going into the season:</p>
<h2><strong>Starting 9</strong></h2>
<div><em>1.     Did your team do a good job this offseason?</em></div>
<p>That matters how you define a &#8220;good job.&#8221; GM Dan Duquette wanted to add a power bat, and they tried to do just that via trade. Most teams weren&#8217;t willing to deal with the Orioles unless they gave up prospects Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado. One team had all but penciled gold glove shortstop JJ Hardy into their starting lineup because they convinced themselves that they could pry him away from the Orioles, and another team had the gall to request gold glove centerfielder Adam Jones in return via trade. Many fans are grumbling that the team didn&#8217;t make any substantial deals, however the deals that were on the table were horrible deals.</p>
<div><em>2.     Who is the key player to your team’s success this year?</em></div>
<div id="attachment_11040" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/03/7104930.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-11040" title="MLB: Spring Training-Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/03/7104930-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Mar 3, 2013; Sarasota, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Ben Revere (2) dives as Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) makes an attempt to pickoff during the top of the first inning of a spring training game at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>I would submit the entire pitching staff, as well as first baseman Chris Davis. The Orioles will have a tough time doing anything if their pitching doesn&#8217;t hold up, so that&#8217;s extremely important. However, Davis struggled at first base through spring training and 30+ games early in the regular season last year. If he has a repeat performance to the point where the Orioles can&#8217;t justify trotting him out at first everyday, they would lose the 30+ homers that he could potentially bring to the table on offense.</p>
<div><em>3.     Who is a position player many people may not know about who is going to have a breakout season?</em></div>
<p>Third baseman Manny Machado. I referred to him above as a prospect, however he came up last August from the minors to play third. A full year of what Machado brought to the table last year should starkly benefit the Orioles.</p>
<div><em>4.     What starting pitcher is going to have a surprisingly good season?</em></div>
<p>The Orioles brought up an unknown guy from the Mexican League named Miguel Gonzalez last July. He pitched almost flawlessly throughout the second half and in the post season, so I&#8217;d look for more of the same from him.</p>
<div><em>5.     How does your team’s bullpen look going into this coming year especially at the closer position?</em></div>
<p>The Orioles had one of the best &#8216;pens down the stretch last year, and that includes closer Jim Johnson who set a new team record with 52 saves in the regular season. There&#8217;s no reason to believe that won&#8217;t happen again.</p>
<div><em>6.     Who do you think is the most “over-rated” player on your team?</em></div>
<p>Whoa, that&#8217;s a pretty loaded question! If I had to pick one I think I might throw starting pitcher Tommy Hunter into the mix. He has some command problems and he gives up a lot of home runs.</p>
<div><em>7.     Are there any rookies that will impact the team from the beginning of the season or as a midseason call-up?</em></div>
<p>The above-mentioned Manny Machado, even though he&#8217;s not truly a rookie this year, however pitching prospect Dylan Bundy could make an in-season impact if he&#8217;s called up at some point.</p>
<div><em>8.     What would be considered a successful season for your team?</em></div>
<div id="attachment_11041" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/03/6634990.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-11041" title="MLB: Wild Card Playoff-Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/03/6634990-300x203.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="203" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Oct 5, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Darren O</p></div>
<p>Wow, another loaded question! The Orioles might have made a bit of a tactical error in going from 69 wins to the playoffs in one year. Now anything less than a post season appearance would potentially be deemed a failure by many fans. However I think that a successful season at this point would still be playing meaningful games in August and September. Certainly the goal is to reach the playoffs, but given the struggles of this franchise from 1998-2011 I think that most fans would take simply being relevant late in the season.</p>
<div><em>9.     What exciting things do you have coming up on your site this season?</em></div>
<p>We&#8217;re going to provide the best Orioles&#8217; coverage on the web from sunrise until dusk! Fans can follow me on twitter <em>@DomenicVadala</em> for in-game updates, scores, and analysis. <a class="twitter-follow-button" href="https://twitter.com/DomenicVadala" data-show-count="false" data-lang="en">Follow @DomenicVadala</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Special thanks to Domenic for giving us his insight on Baltimore for this coming season. Make sure to add the Orioles coverage to your daily FantasyCPR updates, or if you&#8217;re signed up for the Birds Watcher daily updates add FantasyCPR under the &#8220;extras&#8221; options.</p>
<p>Come back throughout the coming weeks for more fantasy baseball previews from the baseball writers across the FanSided network.</p>
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		<title>Deciding Three AL Arbitration Cases-Off the Radar</title>
		<link>http://fantasycpr.com/2013/01/23/deciding-three-al-arbitration-cases-off-the-radar/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasycpr.com/2013/01/23/deciding-three-al-arbitration-cases-off-the-radar/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Jan 2013 15:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>clinthulsey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Arbitration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Off the Radar]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasycpr.com/?p=10469</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Previously, I looked at 5 different arbitration cases in the National League and made judgments as to who deserved to &#8220;win&#8221; the arbitration case. Strangely (many teams don&#8217;t let the process go this far, for example, the Rangers haven&#8217;t actually gone to arbitration since 2000), there weren&#8217;t as many interesting arbitration cases in the American [...]</p><p><a href="http://fantasycpr.com/2013/01/23/deciding-three-al-arbitration-cases-off-the-radar/">Deciding Three AL Arbitration Cases-Off the Radar</a> - <a href="http://fantasycpr.com">Fantasy CPR</a> - <a href="http://fantasycpr.com">Fantasy CPR - A Fantasy Sports blog for news, rumors, and updates on all Fantasy Sports</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_10494" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 660px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/01/6634904.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-10494" title="MLB: Wild Card Playoff-Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/01/6634904.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="433" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Darren O&#8217;Day helped the Baltimore Orioles to a surprise playoff berth but should he win his arbitration case? Check out the analysis below. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>Previously, I looked a<a href="http://fantasycpr.com/2013/01/20/deciding-5-nl-arbitration-cases-off-the-radar/">t 5 different arbitration cases in the National League </a>and made judgments as to who deserved to &#8220;win&#8221; the arbitration case. Strangely (many teams don&#8217;t let the process go this far, for example, the Rangers haven&#8217;t actually gone to arbitration since 2000), there weren&#8217;t as many interesting arbitration cases in the American League as there was in the National League. So instead, I looked at just 3 cases, and elaborated on them a little more than in the previous post.</p>
<h2>Darren O&#8217;Day: Orioles</h2>
<p>O&#8217;Day: 3.2 million</p>
<p>Orioles: 1.8 million</p>
<p>MLBTR Projection: 2.2 million</p>
<p>On one hand, the Rangers basically gave O&#8217;Day after 2011, losing him on waivers after an injury plagued season. On the other hand, O&#8217;Day has been mostly fantastic in his career. He always seems to be undervalued by teams, as he was let go by the Mets and the Angels unceremoniously, but has a career 62 ERA &#8211; (and FIP 80 -). He is a sidearming reliever, limiting his ceiling obviously as he doesn&#8217;t have much of a fastball and he is stuck pitching in situational roles, but I have argued th<a href="http://fantasycpr.com/2012/04/19/an-ode-to-the-specialist-reliever-off-the-radar/">at situational relievers have been undervalued </a>(though Randy Choate&#8217;s new contract suggests that teams may be starting to recognize that these players actually have real tangible value and should receive more than minor league contracts). MLBTR sides closer to the Orioles, and it is a little hard to believe that a pitcher with 247.2 career innings (not to mention he will most likely only throw 40 or so innings in 2013) and has an injury history deserves 3.2 million dollars. However, considering he has been worth at least 1 win above replacement (at least according to FanGraphs) in 3 of the last 4 years (and ~5 million per WAR is usually the going rate), a 3.2 million dollar salary is hardly absurd, especially when you look at things like the Rafael Soriano and Brandon League contracts.</p>
<h2>Jason Hammel: Orioles</h2>
<div id="attachment_10495" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 250px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/01/6643170.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-10495 " title="MLB: ALDS-New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/01/6643170-300x415.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="332" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Oct 7, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Jason Hammel (39) throws in the first inning of game one of the 2012 ALDS against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>Hammel: 8.25 million</p>
<p>Orioles: 5.7 million</p>
<p>MLBTR Projection: 6.5 million</p>
<p>Like O&#8217;Day (but unlike Jim Johnson), the MLB Trade Rumor Projection is closer to the team than the player. In what proved to be a steal, the Orioles acquired Hammel in a trade for Jeremy Guthrie. Hammel had a stretch where he was one of the best starters in baseball, and while a knee injury limited him to 20 starts, he had a 77 FIP -, career high (53.2%) ground-ball rate, and nearly a strikeout an inning (22.9 %). He limited homers better than he has in his entire career, but it may be hard to say he is due to regress, as he pitched the previous 3 seasons in Colorado (his highest HR/9IP actually came when he was pitching for the Rays). He was predictably better on the road than at home when he was with Colorado and in 2012 the average batted ball went 12 feet shorter on average than the batted balls he gave up from 2009-2011. Even when adding park factors and the way the ball travels in Colorado, this is quite a large difference. He did a good job of hitting the corners in 2012, as he was on par with Jered Weaver (who has a notoriously bad fastball when it comes to velocity but has superior command) in <a href="http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/2012-edge-leaderboards/">Edge %</a>. His Edge % was basically the same in 2011, suggesting that most of the problems was just Colorado, and that is what was keeping him from being a pretty special (if not elite) pitcher. If the Orioles have a legit number 1 starter (or anything even close to that), then even the 8.25 million he is asking for is a bargain for the Orioles. For his career, he has only been an averagish pitcher, but he was clearly a different pitcher with the Rays and Colorado clearly hurt his numbers. However, he has a big ground-ball rate, an above average fastball (93.2 MPH for his career and 93.6 MPH in 2012), a hard slider, a relatively hard curve, and a changeup that averaged over 88 MPH in 2012. That stuff alone, along with the command Hammel has shown, would earn him more than 8 million dollars in the open market. Even with the injury concerns (knees are still concerning, but at least it didn&#8217;t have anything to do with his arm), I would expect the Orioles to try to give him some kind of extension. The Orioles rotation has been very shaky, and it would be nice to keep Hammel around to help anchor it.</p>
<h2>Mike Aviles: Indians</h2>
<div id="attachment_10496" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/01/6525830.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10496" title="MLB: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/127/files/2013/01/6525830-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">August 26, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Mike Aviles (3) throws the ball to first base during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>Aviles: 3.4 million</p>
<p>Indians: 2.4 million</p>
<p>MLBTR Projection: 2.3 million</p>
<p>Aviles probably fits best as a utility player, but he can be a starter and has a 1.1 career WAA. Of course, most of this comes from his rookie year and he is below average over the last 3 years. Most of the defensive measurements like him, and his hitting is acceptable for a middle infielder. Aviles did get to play 136 games for the Red Sox last year, as they traded away their top 2 shortstops, but the Red Sox weren&#8217;t a very good team, and the off-season (with him being traded by both the Red Sox and the Blue Jays) does show that he isn&#8217;t valued too highly. This is an argument from authority obviously, but this is something that may be considered by the arbitration judge. It also appears that he isn&#8217;t going to be a starter for the Indians, as they already have Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis. They were rumored to be ready to trade Cabrera, but they haven&#8217;t yet, so it appears Aviles will be the utility infielder behind two legitimate starters. This makes you wonder just how much playing time he will actually get, meaning that he will provide less pure value simply cause of playing time.</p>
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