San Diego State Aztecs running back Adam Muema (4) faces a tough matchup against a BYU defense that has stopped the run all year. The Cougars and Aztecs meet in this year’s Poinsettia Bowl the Photo by Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego State Aztecs get what basically amounts to a home game against their former conference foes BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl. It’s the second Poinsettia bowl appearance for SD State in three years after getting a win over Navy two years ago. BYU will be a tough opponent though dominating the series between the two teams 27-7-1. It should be a fascinating matchup in the early bowl season.

When to Watch: Thursday, December 20, 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Live on ESPN from Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

What to Watch for…

Oct. 13, 2012; Provo, UT, USA; Brigham Young Cougars running back Jamaal Williams (21) carries the ball against the Oregon State Beavers during the first quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas C. Pizac-USA TODAY Sports

When BYU has the ball: Brigham Young’s offense hasn’t been awesome, but they’ve had their good days to be sure. Those good days have resulted in five games where they’ve reached 40 points or more including three of their last four. However, in three of their five losses, they’ve scored 14 points or less and even won a game against Utah State in which they scored just six. Probably the biggest question facing Coach Bronco Mendehall is who to start at quarterback. Riley Nelson has been the starter all season but missed the regular season finale with a rib injury. Senior James Lark stepped in and only threw 384 yards and six touchdowns with no turnovers albeit against the less-than-stellar defense of the 1-11 New Mexico State Lobos. Freshman Jamaal Williams leads the Cougars rushing attack with over 1,000 all-purpose yards and 12 total touchdowns. BYU also has a 1,000-yard receiver in Junior Cody Hoffman.

The inconsistent Cougars offense will deal with an improving Aztec defense. Before their last game where they allowed 28 points to Wyoming, San Diego State had held five out of their previous six opponents under 20. In their last four games  they’ve allowed just 164.0 passing yards per game. San Diego State uses the 3-3-5 defense with five defensive backs which could allow Williams to have a nice game but should keep the Cougar passing attack under wraps.

When San Diego State has the ball: There’s no doubt what the Aztecs want to do on offense. They rank 16th in the nation in rushing yards per game behind Adam Muema (1,355 yards, 16 touchdowns) and Walter Kazee (822 yards, 8 touchdowns). Muema finished the season on a high note rushing for 255 yards and four scores against Wyoming in the regular season finale. At quarterback, SD State will look for Adam Dingwell to continue his efficient success since taking over mid-season. Dingwell is undefeated as starter leading the Aztecs to five straight wins including nice wins over Nevada and then-#19 Boise State.

The BYU defense won’t be surprised by the Aztecs as Coach Mendenhall was an assistant under SDSU Coach Rocky Long. Mendenhall’s defense would seem to be well-suited to stop the Aztecs. BYU ranks second only to Alabama in rushing yards allowed per game and is fifth in scoring defense and third in total defense. They have some playmakers on the defensive side of things that will be playing on Sundays next year.

Who to Watch For-NFL Prospects

Oct. 5, 2012; Provo, UT, USA; Brigham Young Cougars linebacker Ezekiel Ansah (47) grabs hold of Utah State Aggies running back Kerwynn Williams (25) during the first quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas C. Pizac-USA TODAY Sports

The big one (literally and figuratively) is Ezekiel Ansah-BYU-DE. Ansah projects to be a mid-to-late first round pick. His high-ceiling could land him closer to the top if he grades and measures well in the pre-draft process. He’s an elite-level pass rusher but may need to either bulk up or slim down going forward depending on the position and situation he finds himself in at the next level. Ansah is definitely a player to watch in this one especially if your NFL team may be looking for help on the defensive side of things in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft.

The other prospects you can catch in this one are Kyle Van Noy-BYU-OLB, Leon McFadden-SDSU-CB, and Brandon Hansen-BYU-OG.  Noy could go in the second or early third, McFadden could be a third or fourth round pick, and Hansen most likely will be a sixth or seventh round pick. Cody Hoffman-BYU-WR could also be a late-round pick if he decides to declare early which according to a report in the Salt Lake Tribune he is 50-50 on (click here for article).

Final Verdict

Nov 3, 2012; Boise, ID, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Adam Dingwell (6) during the first half of their game against the Boise State Broncos at Bronco Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

BYU is the slight favorite in this one, but I think San Diego State has what it takes to pull the mild upset. The Aztecs have won seven in a row including some nice wins, and will have the homefield advantage provided by playing in their own city. This game reminds me a lot of the BYU game on November 17 when the Cougars went West and lost to the San Jose State Spartans. Look for San Diego State to use that as a template and gameplan their way past a tough Cougar defense.

I wouldn’t put too much confidence on this game though in Bowl Mania because it should a hard-fought, physical game that comes down to fourth-quarter execution by whichever team comes out on top.

Utah State Aggies quarterback Chuckie Keeton (16) leads the Utah State Aggies into their second straight Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Read this post to find out why I think this time they’ll emerge victorious. Photo by Douglas C. Pizac-USA TODAY Sports

In the second Bowl game of the first Saturday of the season, all eyes will be on the blue turf of Boise State as the Toledo Rockets bring their high-powered offense from the MAC to face the WAC champion Utah State Aggies. Utah State in ranked #22 coming into this game and Toledo found its way into the top 25 before a couple of late-season losses. Here’s the rundown of what to expect in the 2012 Idaho Potato Bowl.

When to Watch: Saturday, December 15 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: Live on ESPN from Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho

What to Watch for…

Oct 20, 2012; Toledo, OH, USA; Toledo Rockets wide receiver Bernard Reedy (1) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Glass Bowl. Toledo won 29-23. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

When Toledo has the ball: Junior wide receiver and kickoff returner Bernard Reedy is a dynamic talent who can make plays whenever he gets his hands on the ball. The rest of the Toledo offense could be in trouble though as their starting running bak and quarterback missed their season finale. David Fluellen ranks 12th in the country with 1,460 rushing yards despite missing the final game and is expected to be back. The status of QB Terrance Owens is less clear and if he’s unable to play Austin Dantin will get another start. He looked ok against Akron throwing for 327 yards and 5 TDs, but the Zips defense is nothing like what he’ll see if he’s under center for this game.

The Utah State defense is one of the best in the country. They ranked 8th in scoring defense and 15th in total defense. Only three times all year has their opponent reached 20 points and five times they’ve limited their opponent to single-digits. The weather calls for temps in the 30s which should make the Utah State defense even more effective as they look to limit the Rockets high-flying offense.

When Utah State has the ball: Utah State prefers to win with defense, but has also proven it can win even in high-scoring games like their 48-41 overtime win at then-#20 Louisiana Tech. They’ve scored 38 points or more in each of their last six games and in eight of their last nine. The Aggie offense is led by Sophomore QB Chuckie Keeton who threw for 3,144 yards and 27 touchdowns this season with just nine picks. Keeton added 527 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. The big Texan continues to develop into an excellent college QB and could guide the Aggies to a much bigger bowl in the coming seasons if he continues to progress. The Aggies leading rusher and receiver is Kerwyn Williams who finished the regular season with 1,277 yards rushing and 663 yards receiving to go with 17 all-purpose touchdowns. Williams and Keeton will look to put on a show against the Toledo defense.

The Rockets defense has been a major problem this season. Of the 124 teams in the FBS this season, Toledo ranks 121 against the pass, 73 in rushing defense, and 108 in total defense. Toledo has only held opposing offenses under 20 points twice all year. Utah State should be able to pile up points as Toledo’s opponents have been all year.

Who to Watch For-NFL Prospects

There’s no top-tier prospects in this one, as no player from either team is expected to go in the top couple of rounds. However, there are a couple intriguing late-round picks will be Will Davis-Utah State-CB who could go anywhere from the third to the fifth round depending on how he does in the pre-draft process. Another player to watch is Kerwynn Williams-Utah State-RB whose skills as a receiver out of the backfield make him an interesting late-round addition. In the right situation, Williams could have a solid role as a Darren Sproles-lite kind of player.

Nov. 24, 2012; Logan, UT, USA; Utah State Aggies running back Kerwynn Williams (25) is taken down by a Idaho Vandals player during the first quarter at Romney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas C. Pizac-USA TODAY Sports

Final Verdict

Utah State almost won this bowl last year before a furious late comeback by Ohio. Utah State’s two losses were to bowl-bound BYU and Wisconsin but a total of five points. Their defense should be able to contain Toledo who faded at the end of the season with losses to Ball State and Northern Illinois before playing a close game in their season finale with 1-11 Akron. This year I think the Aggies close the deal and get the Bowl win.

I wouldn’t mind even giving the points in this game. I have ranked them highly in my bowl mania confidence points as you can see in our entry linked at the top of the page with the rest of our bowl series previews.