Last year it was Hunter Mahan who celebrated his WGC Match Play Championship with the Walter Hagen Cup. Who will get the win today at Ritz-Carlton GC and will Hunter be able to complete back-to-back Match Play Championship titles? Find out who I think will win below. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

The desert duels have definitely not disappointed this week in the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship outside of Tuscon, Arizona. After starting with 64 players four rounds ago, only four remain. Ultimately we’re left with a formidable foursome that have all eliminated their share of big names along the way. Here’s how I see the top four playing out today on the final day at Dove Mountain:

4. Jason Day

Obviously, Day has played incredible golf to get this far including knocking off Bubba Watson and Graeme McDowell yesterday. He needed ever single hole to eliminate McDowell after falling behind early. He drives the ball further than his final-four opponent, Matt Kuchar, but is a bit too erratic at times to get the best of the steady American. Day has played a lot of golf the last few days and only had four birdies in his 18-hole match with McDowell but it was enough for him to get the win. He’s the lowest seed remaining as an #11 but has beat Zach Johnson, Russell Henley, Bubba Watson, and Graeme McDowell on his path to the semifinals.

3. Ian Poulter

Always a match play force, Poulter has cruised through the first rounds without ever playing the eighteenth hole competitively. His last two opponents yesterday were Tim Clark who he beat 5 and 3 and Steve Stricker who he beat 3 and 2. Poulter’s only bogey in his last two rounds came on the first hole against Stricker which is one of only three holes he’s trailed after all tournament long. He won’t be an easy out for Hunter Mahan in the semi-finals and could easily win his second Match Play title after wining three years ago. I’m going to give him the edge in the third-place match after losing a tight one to Mahan in the semi’s.

2. Hunter Mahan

Mahan played a bogey-free round against reigning US Open champion Webb Simpson and it still took him until the 18th to close Simpson out. It’s hard to imagine anyone playing better on a specific course than Mahan is playing at Dove Mountain. He hasn’t trailed in a match since the first round… of last year. In the last 141 holes he’s played, Hunter has either been all-square or leading. No champion has successfully defended his Match Play Championship title since Tiger did it in 2004 which was the only time its happened in the 14-year history of this event. I think Mahan will have enough to take out Poulter, but all the close hard-fought matches may take a toll and ultimately I think he’ll fall just short of repeating in the desert as he falls in the final to…

1. Matt Kuchar

The steady American has four career wins on the PGA Tour and is known for his steady, consistent play. He’s lost the last two years to the eventual champion losing to Luke Donald semifinals two years ago and to Hunter Mahan in the quarterfinals last year. This year I think he’ll complete his run and get the win after beating Day and Mahan. Kuchar may not have the flash of Poulter or Mahan, but his consistency and steady play should be enough to get him the win today.

Conclusion

Regardless of whether my picks are right or not today, it’s been an awesome tournament and I’ve really enjoyed writing about it and making my picks. Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed reading my quick breakdowns and they’ve made the event even that much more enjoyable to watch. Good luck with your picks today, and it’ll be great to see how it all unfolds. All four of the golfers that have made it this far are fun to watch and should be heard from again as we continue on in the PGA Tour season. Make sure to come back Tuesday for my Honda Classic preview as the Tour heads to Florida to take on PGA National as they start the Florida swing. 

Round-by-Round Results

First round: 18-14

Second Round: 12-4

Third Round: 7-1

Fourth Round: 3-1

Total: 40-20

Last year’s champion, Hunter Mahan is one of the sweet 16 in this year’s Match Play Championship. In this photo, he hits his tee shot on the par 3 sixth during the championship match of the 2012 WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

After just two rounds in the desert, the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship is down to the top 16. By the end of play today, there will be just four players left to duel it out for the championship tomorrow. Match play is by its nature unpredictable and this tournament has reinforced that  with all the #1 seeds gone and only Bubba Watson left of the top ten players in the world rankings headed into the sweet 16.

Yesterday, my picks were pretty sweet going 12-4 in round two following my 18-14 record in round one. Hopefully today’s will be as good. I’ll pick each of the eight matches teeing off this morning and then post my picks for the later matches on twitter so follow at Follow @FantasyCPR and I’ll let you know who I’ve got headed into the final four.

Here’s my previews and picks for round 3:

Match 49- Robert Garrigus over Fredrik Jacobson

Garrigus has been cruising and has made more birdies than anyone all week. He knocked off Louis Oosthuizen 3 and 2. He’s putting well and always is a big hitter off the tee. His game is well-tailored for match play and keeps the pressure on his opponents. His next opponent is Fredrik Jacobson who beat Marcus Fraser 4 and 3. Jacobson hasn’t been challenged yet as both his previous competitors have struggled.

Match 50- Matt Kuchar over Nicolas Colsaerts

This is one of the better matches of the day as steady Matt Kuchar takes on the long-hitting Belgian. Colsearts fell behind early but battled back and defeated Justin Rose 4 and 2 yesterday while knocking in six birdies. Kuchar needed more holes and less birdies to knock off Sergio Garcia 2 and 1. Kuchar and Garcia were locked in a tie for the first five holes where Kuchar took the lead. He gave that hole back eventually but never trailed in the match although he only led by more than one after getting the win on the 17th to close the match. Kuchar has a much better history at this event although Colsaerts has won the Volvo Match Play event on the European Tour.

Match 51- Graeme McDowell over Shane Lowry

Sep 29, 2012; Medinah, IL, USA; European golfer Graeme McDowell tees off on the third hole during the morning session of the 39th Ryder Cup on day two at Medinah Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

McDowell faces his second Irish opponent as he takes on Shane Lowry. Lowry crushed Carol Pettersson as an encore to knocking off world #1 Rory McIlroy on day one. Pettersson finished his match with Rickie Fowler early in the day but couldn’t keep up with Lowry in his match as Lowry dropped five birdies and no bogeys. In a much more closely contested match, McDowell needed extra holes to defeat Alexander Noren in a match that was all-square or within a hole of it all day long. McDowell has more experience and should be able to end Lowry’s Cinderella run as the 64th seed, but Lowry will be more rested and it wouldn’t shock me if he won again.

Match 52- Jason Day over Bubba Watson

Continuing the theme of top players going down, I think Watson goes down in this match against the Australian Jason Day who hits it close to as far as Bubba. Day needed 19 holes to dispatch PGA Tour rookie Russell Henley. Day was up early, struggled in the middle, but finished strong to move on to the third round. Watson has played more holes than any other player this week thanks to the 22 holes he needed to beat Jim Furyk yesterday. This will be a great match and should be lots of fun to watch.

Match 53- Scott Piercy over Steve Stricker

February 3, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Scott Piercy reacts after missing a birdie putt on the sixteenth hole during the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Piercy is playing incredible golf this week and steam-rolled Luke Donald. Piercy went up three after three holes and won going away 7 and 6. He had five birdies and an eagle in his 12 holes and never lost a hole. Steve Stricker was in a much tighter match against Nick Watney that required extra holes going 21 before Stricker closed the match. Stricker won this event in 2001 but has only made the third round three other times in 11 appearances. Piercy is making his first appearance at this event and doing it in impressive fashion; I think he’ll get another win today.

Match 54- Ian Poulter over Tim Clark

Poulter is a match play beast who always seems to do well at Dove Mountain where he won three years ago. Clark has looked solid as usual, but doesn’t have the length to last much longer in my opinion. Look for Poulter to improve on his 20-9 all-time record in this event with another win today.

Match 55- Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano over Webb Simpson

Fernandez-Castano won two matches yesterday and now takes on Webb Simpson. Gonzalo has avoided trouble and Simpson has been working his way out of it all week, so I think the Spaniard has another win coming today.

Match 56- Hunter Mahan over Martin Kaymer

In this marquee matchup Hunter Mahan, who won last year, faces off against Martin Kaymer, who finished second two years ago. Mahan’s putter carried him to the win last year and it’s burning up the freezing desert again this year, so look for him to get revenge for his 2011 match where Kaymer won 2 and 1.