Favorite Fantasy Football picks in the first 10 rounds

A lot of people say that you need to have a plan going into your fantasy football drafts. Personally, I like the plan of not having a plan. Okay, maybe not having absolutely zero plan, but being flexible enough to zig when other people zag to get the best value out of the draft. With that being said, there are players in nearly every round that stand out to me as a value or that I like more than others for one reason or another.

Using FantasyPros ADP, here are my favorite picks in each of the first 10 rounds of a 12-team, full PPR league draft.

Round one: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

Chubb has been a top-13 running back in each of the past four seasons, and top-8 in the two seasons that he has played a full season (RB13 in 14 games and RB11 in 12 games). In those four seasons, he has shared the workload with one of the better dual threat running backs in the league.

That man, Kareem Hunt, is no longer on the team. The guy stepping into his role, Jerome Ford, had eight offensive touches in his rookie season. Assuming he takes over the same role that Hunt had would just be foolish. In his two healthy seasons in Cleveland, Hunt averaged 12 touches per game. If Chubb gets even a third of those, he will add to what is already an incredibly large workload (third in carries in 2022, behind only Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs).

The passing game should be better with Deshaun Watson now in his second year as a Brown. That will not only help lighten the box for Chubb but will also give him better opportunities in the passing game. With his main competition for touches no longer in town, there is no reason that Chubb can’t be a top-5 running back this year.

Round 2: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

While his stats only saw marginal increases, his increase in targets and yards per reception are a good sign for St. Brown’s continued progression heading into his third year. What should also help is the fact that the Lions' D’Andre Swift, was second on the team in targets.

While new additions Marvin Jones and Jahmyr Gibbs should take Swift’s target share (and then some), there should still be more than enough for St. Brown to once again be a WR1. The biggest competition coming into the offseason was 2022 top-15 pick Jameson Williams, who missed all of last season due to an injury. While he is expected to return at some point, he will miss at least six games for gambling at a team facility. He is also dealing with a hamstring injury, so the six games could extend even further.

Regardless, the time missed has likely had an impact on his transition from college to the pros. He may very well not be game-ready, or at least not be a major impact when his suspension is over. For a team that throws the ball a good amount and has less than optimal surrounding talent, St. Brown has a chance to elevate his game even higher than last year’s WR7 finish.

Round 3: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

I know, drafting a team’s WR2 as your potential WR1 doesn’t seem like an ideal strategy. Trust me on this one, Higgins is one of just two or three guys in the league who can bring that level of production while not being the top target on his own team.

He has been a top-30 wide receiver in each of his first three seasons while increasing his end-of-season rank each year. Last season, his 75/1,042/7 line was good for a WR18 finish. Going into the final year of his rookie contract, and with Joe Burrow still needing his massive extension, Higgins could very well be showing off this year for the other 31 teams in the league.

Another factor that could lead to continued and improved success is who the Bengals lost in the offseason. Hayden Hurst and Samaje Perine combined for 119 targets last season. Those two were replaced by oft-injured Irv Smith Jr. and rookie Chase Brown. I have a hard time believing that those two will see the same workload that Hurst and Perine got. That means more targets for the rest of the group. Barring a completely unexpected step backward, Higgins should have no trouble being a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2. If you went running back and/or tight end in the first two rounds, he is more than capable of being your team’s WR1. If you grabbed another wide receiver in the first two rounds, he will be one of the better WR2s in your league.

Round 4: Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The last time we saw Ridley play a full season, he finished as the WR5. He should now be the top target on an offense that threw the ball just shy of 600 times last season. While many think that the year and a half off may be a detriment, I think that it could allow him to come into this season completely healthy and hungry for success.

The Jaguars' offense produced three 700-plus-yard receivers last season, with Christian Kirk collecting 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. That was good for a WR11 finish. No offense to Kirk, who is a solid receiver in his own right, but he isn’t at the level that Ridley is. With two viable threats in the run game and weapons all around him, Ridley could see a lot of one-on-one coverage. Where Ridley is being drafted right now (WR16) is closer to his floor than his ceiling, in my opinion. I think he has a legitimate chance of being a top-10 receiver, and getting that level of production in the fourth round is an absolute steal.

Round 5: Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Sometimes a lack of competition leads to a workhorse role for a guy who hasn’t necessarily earned said role. That is exactly what might happen in Los Angeles. Akers has never had more than 188 carries in a season, but his only competition for touches is Kyren Williams (who had 35 carries as a rookie) and Zach Evans (who was a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft).

A couple of returning players should also be major factors in Akers’ success. Cooper Kupp should be the focal point of opposing defenses, allowing Akers to see lighter boxes on run plays. Matthew Stafford is also back, and he targets running backs at a solid rate. Last year, the Rams’ top three running backs saw just 52 combined targets. In 2021, with a healthy Kupp and Stafford, they saw 73 targets. That is nearly 1.5 more targets per game.

While it isn’t anything game-changing, it could be enough to raise Akers’ floor up just a little bit. Akers also saw just 46 percent of carries last season. That number should easily get up near 55 to 60 percent in 2023 due to a lack of competition. While the ceiling for Akers may be capped, he should be a solid RB2 for your team (or, in my preference, your RB1 in a zero RB draft strategy).

Round 6: Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

London’s rookie campaign was a bit overshadowed by Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, but he still put together a very solid first season. On a team that ran the ball a nearly unbelievable 559 times, the fact that London still saw 117 targets just goes to show the type of talent he has.

A 55 percent run rate is likely to drop for the Falcons, even with the addition of first-round pick Bijan Robinson. That will almost certainly lead to more targets for London. What should also help him is the return of Kyle Pitts, who missed seven games last season. That will draw some attention away from London and potentially give him more one-on-one opportunities. His touchdowns were also quite low, as his four touchdowns were matched by teammate MyCole Pruitt (who saw a total of 21 targets).

If the Falcons pass the ball closer to 50 percent of the time and London keeps the same target share, it would lead to around 25 more targets. If his touchdowns get closer to the double-digit range, it could be a huge jump for London in his second year. His ADP outside the top 60 just doesn’t make sense to me.

Round 7: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Even though he didn’t take over the starting role until the end of October, Pacheco still came within 50 yards of reaching the 1,000 yards from scrimmage mark. This year, he will be the lead back from the get-go.

Behind arguably the best offensive line in the league and with Andy Reid drawing up the plays, Pacheco could be in for a big sophomore campaign. In games that he saw double-digit touches, he rushed for over 50 yards in every one of them. What could really unlock his potential is his involvement in the passing game.

While Jerick McKinnon will be the leader in targets among the running backs in Kansas City, even getting a couple a game would be huge for Pacheco. He saw just 14 targets last season but caught 13 of them and would have had the second-highest yards per reception if he had enough receptions to qualify.

With the new offensive tackles that the Chiefs brought in, they could utilize Pacheco more in the screen game, which would accentuate his “all gas, no brakes” running style. With a full season as a starter and a bit more work in the passing game, Pacheco could have even more of a breakout this year.

Round 8: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Addison broke onto the football scene as a sophomore at Pittsburgh, racking up 1,600 yards and 17 touchdowns en route to the Biletnikoff Award (given to the best receiver in college football). Now, he joins a Minnesota team that has produced multiple viable fantasy options for multiple years.

Obviously, Justin Jefferson has been elite, but Adam Thielen has been a solid contributor as well. The second option role, which helped Thielen produce top-30 finishes in each of the past three seasons (including a WR10 finish in 2020), now belongs to Addison. The defense likely won’t be doing the offense any favors, as the unit that finished 28th in points allowed didn’t make any major improvements.

With Dalvin Cook now with the Jets, they could throw the ball even more than they did last season (which was already the third-highest in terms of passing attempts. Addison’s current ADP (WR37) is seven spots lower than where Thielen finished last season. No offense to Thielen, but I would be very surprised if Addison has a year that is more than a few spots lower than Thielen’s 2022.

Round 9: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

Look, I understand if you’re done with Thomas after the past few years. It was frustrating. Since 2020, he has played in just 10 games, including a complete missed season in 2021. However, in the games he has played, he has looked like he still has some juice.

His yards per reception in those 10 games was just a little lower than his career average, while his 60.9 yards per game was more than respectable. If you took his averages from those 10 games and extrapolated it out to 17 games, his stat line would be 95 catches, 1,035 yards, and five touchdowns. That would have made him the WR15 last season.

Obviously, I don’t expect Thomas to put up quite that level of production, but that just shows that he is still an extremely talented player. A couple of other things that make me like Thomas this year are the players around him. Derek Carr will be the best quarterback he has played with since the first couple of years of his career. There are also more weapons to take focus away from Thomas. Chris Olave is coming off of a great rookie season. Alvin Kamara’s suspension is much shorter than expected, with Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams also joining the backfield. Juwan Johnson is a favorite sleeper tight end among the fantasy community.

All of those guys will take pressure off of Thomas and allow him to see more single coverage. If he does still have some of the old Michael Thomas left in him, that could be a dangerous thing. I’ll gladly take the chance on him as my fourth or fifth wide receiver.

Round 10: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

In a one quarterback league, my favorite strategy is to take someone with extreme upside and then adjust accordingly if that person doesn’t work out. There are always startable quarterbacks on waivers that you can easily stream the position if need be.

Last year, those players were Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields. If you happened to start with Tua and move to Fields after his injury, you were set at the position virtually all season. This year, my high-upside quarterback target is Anthony Richardson. The Colts’ rookie is a very raw prospect and he could very well struggle through the air throughout the season. What makes everyone in the fantasy world love Richardson is what he can do with his legs. Last season at Florida, he ran for 654 yards and nine touchdowns. He also put together one of the most impressive athletic performances that the NFL Combine has ever seen.

Since PlayerProfiler has started recording data, Richardson’s combine metrics ranked at the very top of the 278 recorded quarterbacks and 102nd out of all 5,678 prospects that they have recorded. He could immediately contend with the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. So while his passing game may be extremely raw in his rookie season, his rushing ability will raise his floor immensely and should allow him to be a safe weekly option for your fantasy team.