2024 tier-based quarterback rankings

Tier 5: Quarterbacks with spike weeks but low floors

18. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
19. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Bucs
20. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
21. DeShaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
22. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
23. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
24. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

This tier is when it starts to get a bit murky. I like a few quarterbacks in this tier and believe that they could surprise with QB1 potential in 2024, but the chances are unfortunately not very high. Due to that, I would not go into a draft planning on taking any of these guys as your QB1. These are great QB2 options that could surprise and be a big value for anyone.

There is still a reason to believe in Lawrence, but I can’t keep on pushing him up the rankings. He needs to prove it. He will have spike weeks, especially if he uses his legs in the red zone as he did in a three-week span from Week 11 to Week 13 in 2023 where he averaged 27.3 fantasy PPG. However, he has a very low floor. If he can improve as a passer in real life this season, he can comfortably put himself in Tier 4 moving forward.

Mayfield and Levis are in the same boat. I think they are talented quarterbacks but they both have too low floors to be any higher than where they are. Due to their play style, they will have big spike weeks that can win you weeks in matchup plug-and-play games. Levis is a bit more intriguing just because he’s going into his sophomore year and is attempting to prove he can be the Titans’ franchise quarterback. He just has a little more potential.

Man, do I miss Texans DeShaun Watson. That was one of the most entertaining players to watch. Unfortunately, Watson is a whole different player now. His offense is good enough and he runs enough to make him a good fantasy quarterback. However, injuries and turnovers will likely limit him. Spike weeks will be a thing for him, though.

Stafford, Rodgers and Smith are all in the same case. Veteran quarterbacks who will help their team in real life a lot more than your fantasy roster. They will have extremely low floors week-to-week but will put up a spike game here and there.

Tier 6: Young hopefuls and quarterbacks on borrowed time

25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
26. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
27. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
28. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
29. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
30. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
31. Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
32. JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

All of these guys have a solid chance of not playing a full season due to being either benched midseason or benched to start the season due to being a rookie. I’d say the only quarterbacks who have close to a guarantee of that not happening are Young due to having a long leash as the 2023 first overall pick and Carr with Dennis Allen being stubborn. Nonetheless, neither will likely be good quarterback options for fantasy in 2024. I could see a path for Young to make a fantasy jump due to an improved offense and positive rushing touchdown regression.

Maye is a rookie I am very high on as a real-life player. He could surprise some people with big spike weeks. However, he will likely start the season on the bench and be a little turnover-prone as a rookie.

I don’t see Jones, Wilson, Nix, O’Connell or McCarthy doing much for your team other than a spike week here and there. They will be waiver wire pickup starts based on matchups.

Tier 7: Backups who will likely see the field

33. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
34. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
35. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
36. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders

All of these players are going to be the backup for their team at some point in the season. Darnold and Brissett will most likely start for their teams come Week 1 but be benched by midseason at the latest. Fields is going to be a good fantasy quarterback if he plays due to his threat with his legs, but I don’t expect him to see the field much. Look out for him should Russell Wilson go down.

Minshew has a chance to beat O’Connell out for the starting job but expect both Raiders quarterbacks to be benched for each other during the season.