Chris Olave's path to being a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave is coming off of an impressive rookie season despite not having the most favorable situation. Now, he enters the 2023 season primed to build off the success he had in his first year as a pro.

Olave was highly-regarded coming out of college for his route-running ability and athleticism and the Saints drafted him with the No. 11 overall pick. But, he wasn’t necessarily expected to have a monster impact right away. Despite the selection of Olave, the Saints still had former Pro Bowler and All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas on their roster. Unfortunately, Thomas suffered a toe injury in Week 3 that kept him sidelined for the rest of the season.

Thomas’ injury removed Olave’s biggest obstacle to a high-volume starting role with the Saints. This allowed Olave to start nine out of the 15 games he played in his rookie season. Olave suffered a brain injury in Week 5 that forced him to miss Week 6 versus the Seattle Seahawks and sat out Week 16 with a hamstring injury.

The Saints wide receiver room wasn’t the only part of the roster to get bit by the injury bug. Quarterback Jameis Winston suffered a back injury in Week 3 that forced the team to turn to NFL veteran Andy Dalton for the remainder of the season.  

Dalton stepped in and knew immediately that Olave was his best target, featuring him in the offense early and often. The stud wide receiver received no less than six targets in each of the first five games Dalton started for the Saints in 2022.

Olave finished as the WR26 on a points-per-game basis in fantasy football last season even though the odds were stacked against him. Having to battle for targets against an All-Pro level receiver, while suffering injuries, and playing with a backup quarterback, Olave still gave himself a chance to earn the NFL’s 2022 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. He finished in fourth place in the voting breakdown, behind Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker III, and Brock Purdy.

As a rookie, Olave cleared the 1,000-yard mark despite missing two games. He showed he is a true No. 1 receiver who proved the ability to run and win any route, as illustrated by Matt Harmon’s reception perception chart:

His knack for creating space and yardage enabled him to earn a 26.5 percent target share as a rookie. Now, he also welcomes the addition of longtime Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who will bring stability to the position and only help Olave after the mess that was the Saints quarterback room last year. It is safe to assume an uptick in pass attempts per game with Carr under center. He has a career average of 34.9 attempts per game, compared to the 27 attempts per game Dalton averaged in 2022.

Carr is a four-time Pro Bowler who has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in four of his last five seasons and supported a 1,000-yard receiving season in each of his last four seasons. In 2019-2020, former Raiders tight end Darren Waller recorded 1,145 and 1,196 receiving yards respectively. Hunter Renfrow enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2021 while playing with Carr, posting 1,038 yards. Last year, Carr reunited with his former college teammate Davante Adams, and Adams went for 1,516 receiving yards and 100 receptions.

Per Andrew Erickson, Olave was one of just three wide receivers to exceed 1,000 yards while scoring less than five touchdowns last season. Positive touchdown regression is coming for Olave and as long as Michael Thomas remains healthy, he should help draw attention off of him.

Currently being drafted as the consensus WR12 according to FantasyPros’ rankings, Olave has a realistic path to being a top-five fantasy receiver in 2023.