Contrarian DFS Plays for the NFL Conference Championships

Quarterback

Chalk: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes

Contrary: Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy is priced as the third most expensive quarterback on the slate, primarily due to his struggles last week.  However, he faces one of the easiest defenses to score points on from a fantasy perspective, making him almost matchup-proof.  Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford put up big numbers against this Lions’ defense in the playoffs and look for Purdy to do the same.  

Running Back

Chalk: Christian McCaffrey

Contrary: Justice Hill

I suggested Justice Hill last week and am inclined to do it again.  Hill saw 13 rushing attempts compared to Gus Edwards’s ten; however, he did see an increase in touches as the Ravens pulled away.  Hill was active on passing downs once again, seeing two catches.  Hill provides a safe floor as the 1B in the backfilled and upside as he sees the field primarily on 3rd downs.  

Wide Receiver

Chalk: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Contrary: Josh Reynolds, Jauan Jennings

Josh Reynolds put up double-digit DraftKings points again in the Divisional Round and saw three targets.  I expect Reynolds to see his target number climb as the Lions might be playing from behind quite often, and is priced at a very reasonable $4,000. 

Deebo Samuel has a 50-50 chance to play in Sunday’s game.  Jennings can see enough opportunities to warrant him being in your lineup if he suits up.  When Samuel went to the medical tent, Jennings caught five passes for 61 yards.  Samuel could play but might be on a limited snap count, especially if the 49ers take care of business.  Jennings could see valuable opportunities either way, and it is worth considering as a flex option, primarily due to the matchup against the Lions' defense.

Tight End

Chalk: Travis Kelce, George Kittle

Contrary: Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews practiced in full on Wednesday, slotting him to make his long-awaited return.  The star tight end is priced as the cheapest of the four starters, making him a bargain.  While Andrews has not played since Week 11, counting on one of the best in the position is worth the gamble.