When assets go up and down in value is not up to you or me, my friend, it's up to your calendar. Just like the calendar controls when you should plant an evergreen tree in your living room or when it is socially acceptable to blow things up in the sky while chanting U-S-A, it also decides when your draft picks are worth trading or keeping for dynasty football.
In short, the value of picks orbit your annual rookie draft just like the Earth revolves around the sun. The closer you are to the draft, the more valuable rookie picks are. This happens because those picks are closer to transforming from some weird number thing, into a player in a lineup. No matter how expert or novice your league is, the timeline below will accurately predict when your leaguemates will be willing to sell their souls for your 1st round picks.
The Very Official Value of Picks Calendar for Dynasty Football
January - Middle of February
Somewhat Valuable - College football fans and rebuilders want picks but that's it. Last chance to buy picks. DON'T SELL!!!!!
February - April
It's hard to get a deal done - The Super Bowl is over and everyone's attention turns towards Free Agency and the Draft. People constantly say "I want to see how things shake out."
Late April - June (ROOKIE DRAFT SZN)
Peak value!!!! - After the draft we know where guys landed and what order they'll likely go in your rookie draft. It's going to cost you another 1st to climb from the 1.10 to the 1.04.
July (post rookie draft) - August
2025 1sts are like toilet paper - Your friends probably can't name a college player. Cheapest time to buy.
September - October
"Unless your pick is definitely top-3, I don't want it" - Everyone thinks they are contending. This is when you buy 1st's from guys who will "definitely make the playoffs"
November - January
Rebuilders panic for picks - This is peak supply and demand. You have a decent idea if you should buy for the playoffs or sell old guys for picks.
Well, friends here's the deal. You need to buy picks when you do not care about picks and you need to sell your picks when you are excited to finally use them. Fight the need for immediate gratification! People are hungry for picks after they finally researched some mock drafts and know exactly where rookies are going to play. This is during the Rookie Draft Season phase (April-June range). It's too late to buy picks at that point.
You need to buy picks when you do not care about picks and you need to sell your picks when you are excited to finally use them.
Have you ever noticed that some good teams in your leagues always have a ton of picks? That's because they bought picks a year in advance before anyone knew what player they could take with that pick.
My call to action right now is this: go out and buy some mid to late 1sts and 2nds, then hold them until your rookie draft is right around the corner. More importantly, if you have picks right now, don't you dare sell them unless someone WAY overpays. We're currently in that Somewhat Valuable phase. This is your last chance to get 1st round picks without having to promise to mow your friend's lawn for a year, and vice versa. If you have a bunch of 1st round picks, you are about to witness alchemy as those picks transform into fantasy gold!