How Jaylen Warren's injury moves the needle for Najee Harris in fantasy

Alongside their ongoing quarterback competition, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a solid running back tandem. In many respects, Jaylen Warren is a better back than Najee Harris and a nearly equal snap share split reflected that last season.

Still, Harris finished sixth in the league with 255 carries in 2023. Where he lost was in the passing game, as his catch total has gone from 74 in his 2021 rookie season to 29 last year. In line with that, his opportunity share among running backs fell from No. 1 in 2021 to No. 20 last year.

Warren suffered a hamstring injury in Pittsburgh's second preseason game against the Buffalo Bills. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported he'll miss multiple weeks, which puts his Week 1 status in doubt. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has since said Warren's injury is not a long-term concern, which doesn't necessarily mean he won't miss the season opener (or more).

How will Jaylen Warren's injury impact Najee Harris' fantasy value?

Harris has topped 1,000 rushing yards all three of his seasons, with seven, seven and eight touchdowns on the ground, respectively. In each of the last two seasons, he's been top 10 in the league in red zone carries. His breakaway run rate, according to Pro Football Focus, wasn't great last year at just 18.8 percent. But among running backs with at least 100 carries, according to PFF, he was eighth in missed tackles forced, 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 15th in elusive rating.

In volume, there's a safe floor in fantasy. Harris has been no lower than sixth in the league in carries in any of his three seasons. Theoretically, that trend is likely to continue under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and his run-heavy system.

If Warren misses time — a game, two games or whatever — directly behind Harris on the depth chart are Cordarrelle Patterson and La'Michal Perine. Having followed Smith from Atlanta to Pittsburgh, Patterson is potentially a thorn in the side of other Steelers' running backs from a fantasy perspective. But if we're dealing in reality, with fantasy implications, neither he nor Perine will have a big role if Warren is out. If anything, they'll split Warren's passing-down snaps.

Harris' carry volume is safe regardless of how much time Warren misses. But there would be a path to more work as a pass catcher for any games Warren missed, and that work can't get much lower for Harris than it was last year (2.2 targets per game).

Ultimately, as long it's only a game or two missed at worst, Warren's injury is not a great needle mover for how Harris should be regarded in fantasy in terms of his season outlook. Bigger workloads early in the season may make him a sell-high in a trade, but in drafts, he is and will remain a nice value target in the low-end RB2 range.