Road to QB1: Anthony Richardson

In just four games in 2023, Anthony Richardson has already sold fans and fantasy managers on his natural talent and athleticism. With 2024 hopefully being his first full season in the NFL, Richardson will get a second chance at a first impression given the continuity of the Indianapolis offense.

In the small sample size he has provided, Richardson showed flashes of potential stardom but has a lot to improve on to be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL. Having just two full games on his resume, durability concerns are already prominent, particularly with the quarterback suffering two separate injuries in his four active games including the AC joint sprain that shelved him for good.

On paper, Richardson is averaging just 144 passing yards per game but has played just two full games, posting 211.5 yards in them. His true value has been on the ground, racking up 136 rushing yards on 25 total carries. Richardson also scored more touchdowns with his legs (four) than his arm, (three).

Week 1 of the 2024 season will feel very much like Deja Vu for Richardson in what will essentially be a redshirt rookie year. Not much has changed with the team with all 11 offensive starters from a year ago returning.

How Anthony Richardson can become the fantasy QB1

Labeling Richardson as a potential QB1 candidate ahead of just his fifth game as a professional may seem absurd but is a feat that many others have recently accomplished before him. The second-year leap into fantasy royalty after a less-than-stellar rookie showcase has been demonstrated in the past decade by Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.

Of the aforementioned names, Jackson is the most important and relevant to Richardson, given that the 27-year-old has essentially paved a new path for dual-threat quarterbacks in fantasy. Jackson is certainly not the first quarterback to prove that a mobile signal caller can succeed in the NFL and fantasy but was the first to do so without elite passing numbers.

Richardson is not a poor passer by any means but will never be mistaken for Tom Brady. His biggest threat is as a big-play creator rather than a pocket passer, as evidenced by his 27-point fantasy outing against Los Angeles in Week 3 in which he completed just 11 passes on 44 percent accuracy. Following Jackson's play style will be key to his fantasy success in 2024.

The consistency and chemistry of Indianapolis will be huge for the former first-rounder, as seven of Indianapolis' eight leading receivers from 2023 will be back in Blue. Arguably the most important retention of the team will be all five starters of its stellar offensive line that is projected to be the third-best unit by PFF in 2024.

Aside from simply staying on the field, increasing his touchdown output will be Richardson's biggest key to topping the fantasy quarterback rankings. His usage and efficiency as a runner should not temper, though he will unequivocally need to adopt a smarter approach in that aspect to limit further injuries. However, even with the limited sample size, averaging less than one touchdown per start will never lead to a QB1 finish.

With the injury that ended his rookie season being in his throwing shoulder, the first few weeks of 2024 will be telling on Richardson's true season outlook. Passing mechanics were never his strong suit, an issue that could only be enhanced by a major surgery.

Regardless, the ceiling could not be higher for 'AR-15' in fantasy so long as he can avoid another early exit.