Road to RB1: Breece Hall

In what is expected to be his first full season free from injury, Breece Hall is primed for a breakout season for fantasy managers.

Hall will be entering his third year with the New York Jets after being drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft out of Iowa State. The former Cyclone looked elite early into his rookie season before suffering an ACL tear seven games in just as it looked like Hall was beginning to break out.

Despite his rookie season being cut short in Week 7, Hall averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game in 2022. His final three games of the season saw stat lines of 18 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown with two receptions for 100 yards, 20 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown with two receptions for five yards, and four carries for 72 yards and a touchdown right before going down.

The injury was a huge gut punch for Hall and his potential for 2023. Hall ended up ready to play for the 2023 season before Week 1 but did not see over 50 percent of the snaps until Week 5. For the first 15 weeks of the season, Hall was an inconsistent play in fantasy due to his inefficiency.

However, Hall showed signs of optimism that his post-ACL slump was nearly over with two monster rushing weeks early in the season, putting up 10 carries for 127 yards in Week 1 and 22 carries for 177 yards and a touchdown in Week 5.

Even with the inefficiencies and inconsistencies, Hall remained a viable starting option for fantasy, in which much of the credit should go to his receiving work. In 2023, he averaged 7.9 targets per game, a significant increase from his rookie season.

Week 16 was when the Jets finally gave Hall his full-time role back, seeing snap share percentages of 77, 71 and 89 in the final three weeks of the season. Not only did the receiving work stay at an elite level for running backs, but his rushing work and efficiency went way up. Hall’s stat lines from Week 16 to Week 18 are as follows:

• Week 16 - 20 carries for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns with 16 targets for 12 receptions and 96 yards.
• Week 17 - 13 carries for 84 yards with 9 targets for 9 receptions and 42 yards.
• Week 18 - 37 carries for 178 yards and a touchdown with 2 targets for 2 receptions and 12 yards.

Not only was the efficiency and consistency there from a stat and fantasy perspective, but Hall was visibly more athletic and decisive. His cuts seemed to happen much easier and with a lot more confidence, which led to the return of his explosiveness and burst that originally made him a top prospect.

How Breece Hall can finish as the fantasy RB1

With the finish that Hall had in 2023 along with a full training camp, I see him starting 2024 just how he left off in 2023: elite. At only 23 years of age, the ACL tear should not have any further effect on Hall’s game. This leaves him to be the workhorse back for the Jets with his backup listed as rookie Braelon Allen.

The Jets should be a lot better in 2024 which is a key benefit to running backs in fantasy. The team's defense is among the best in the NFL and they should have a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers for the season after his 2023 was cut short after just four snaps in week 1.

Will Rodgers be a top quarterback in the league at 40 years old? The short answer is probably not. However, he will certainly be better than the carousel of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle that New York had to deal with in 2023. I expect Rodgers to be a fringe top-10 quarterback in 2024 but at the very least, average play will still be an upgrade. 

With the Jets likely being a playoff team this season, there will be a lot more games where they are up. When they are up, they will likely rely even more on Hall to get chunk after chunk to run the clock down.

Even with a limited workload for the majority of the 2023 season, Hall saw an average of 15.1 carries and 7.9 targets per game in 2023. The only other running backs to average more than 15 carries and 7.5 targets in a season are Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell, LaDanian Tomlinson, Matt Forte and Marshall Faulk.

In each respective season, the six other names all rewarded their fantasy managers with elite performances. For Hall, the averages, particularly the carries, will likely only go up in 2024.

Not being the only superstar weapon will only help Hall out. With Garrett Wilson at wide receiver, defenses will have to pay attention to him, which doesn’t allow them to just completely stack the box every single play.

As mentioned before, the end of 2023 was when Hall finally fully recovered from the ACL tear and was back where he left off before the unfortunate injury. In those three weeks, Hall had a YPC — yards per carry — of 5.34. Expect much of the same throughout all of 2024.

I haven’t even mentioned that even with the majority down year efficiency-wise, Hall still finished 2023 as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. Think about that for a second. He has so much room to improve from that season in 2024 and still finished as the RB2.

Overall, Hall has league-winning usage and talent. That combined with him coming into the season healthy could very well see him become the fantasy RB1 in 2024. The sky truly is the limit for him.