Road to WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Since Week 13 of his rookie season in 2021, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a significant asset to fantasy football managers. Over the entirety of his three seasons, he is top-10 in the NFL in receptions (318) and receiving yards (3,588) as well as top-10 in touchdown catches (21).

St. Brown has increased his fantasy production each season of his career, from 13.4 PPR points per game in 2021 to 16.7 in 2022 to 20.7 last year. Last year, with a h/t to Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports, he was fifth in the NFL in targets (164), target share (30.2 percent), target rate (29.2 percent) and slot snaps (472). He was also third in the NFL in red-zone targets, with 25, and second in yards after the catch (668).

St. Brown was one of six receivers to average at least 10 targets per game last year. The rest of Detroit's skill position group (Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Kalif Raymond) should take a chunk of the 64 targets Josh Reynolds is leaving behind from last year, but St. Brown's piece of the target pie could inch up a shade too.

In 2023, St. Brown was the WR3 in fantasy across the most prominent scoring formats (standard, half-PPR and full PPR). He also missed one game, with a few others that weren't so good as he played through a serious oblique tear.

How Amon-Ra St. Brown can finish as the WR1 this year

The core recipe to finish as the WR1 in fantasy each year is fairly clear. Heavy target share/heavy target volume. A heavy dose of red zone targets (with a sprinkling of good scoring fortune, which turned St. Brown's way last year). Variation in alignment, with a nod to a noticeable number of slot snaps. Playing every game is obvious.

St. Brown has missed one game in each of the last two seasons, as being a smaller receiver who works the middle of the field a lot exposes him to bigger hits and more injury risk. There are a couple of things that notably work against him on a path to finishing as the WR1. Jared Goff does not throw downfield much, and the Lions run the ball a lot. But those are nitpicks in the conversation of him being the WR1 this year.

St. Brown is widely regarded, correctly, as one of the safest first-round picks in fantasy drafts this year. He entered the elite tier of fantasy receivers with his third-year uptick last season, and he's not likely to leave that group anytime soon. A path to finishing as the WR1 exists for the "Sun God", rooted in all the good that's going for him and the possibility he leads the league in receptions.