Road to WR1: Deebo Samuel

In 2021, Deebo Samuel peaked with a WR2 finish in fantasy football but has remained an elite receiver for the duration of his career while still in seek of his first WR1 finish. With Brandon Aiyuk potentially out of the picture by Week 1, 2024 has the chance to finally be Samuel's year.

Despite being the best fantasy receiver in San Francisco since his rookie season, Samuel has taken a back seat in the passing game to Aiyuk in the past two seasons since Brock Purdy took over as the starting quarterback. In that time, Samuel has not been able to top 900 receiving yards, a far cry from the career-high 1,405 he posted in 2021.

In his fifth season in the league, Samuel appeared in 15 games to record 60 receptions for 892 receiving yards while adding 37 carries for 225 yards on the ground. In total, the Swiss Army Knife tallied 12 touchdowns on the year, second on the team behind Christian McCaffrey.

While San Francisco expected to enter 2024 with a lot of continuity from the team that lost Super Bowl LVIII, the biggest note from the offseason relevant to Samuel was the official trade request of Aiyuk. Even with the drama that has unfolded, the 49ers are not obligated to grant the receiver's wish but the entire situation remains worth noting in how it will affect the fantasy landscape.

How Deebo Samuel can become the fantasy WR1 in 2024

Even with Brandon Aiyuk's trade request, Samuel's fantasy owners have to assume that both receivers will begin the 2024 season in San Francisco with Jauan Jennings completing the trio. However, if Aiyuk is dealt during the offseason, Samuel — along with all of the 49ers' pass-catchers — will undoubtedly receive an uptick in usage.

For Samuel, versatility has always been the name of his game but as he ages he has seen his usage as a runner decline. Samuel received 59 carries in 2021, the best season of his career, but saw just 42 rush attempts in 2022 and 37 in 2023. As he enters his age-28 season in 2024, the volume of running plays drawn up for him will only continue to go down.

Rushing usage has been a key part of Samuel's fantasy value as he has recorded just one 1,000-yard season in his career and never put up more than seven receiving touchdowns in a single season. However, his red zone usage saw a noticeable increase in 2023 with the veteran seeing a team-high 18 targets in that area of the field, the most of his career.

Red zone usage will be key to maintaining the elite fantasy production of Samuel as he ages and predicts to see less employment as a runner. That part of his game could see an additional expansion with tight end George Kittle also likely exiting his prime at age 30 and dealing with weight issues caused by recurring injuries in the offseason.

If Samuel is to truly become the best receiver in fantasy football in 2024, his target share will need to grow along with his touchdown production. Much like his rushing usage, Samuel has seen his targets drop each season since 2021. Never known as the best route runner or pure receiver, Samuel has been reliant on his rushing game to boost his value and if that component of his profile is to decrease, the slack must be picked up somewhere else.

Maintaining his fantasy value will be difficult in 2024, much less becoming the overall WR1. But, like all other elite players in San Francisco, there are few better situations to be in than the one Kyle Shanahan has built with the 49ers. If there is a coach to guide Samuel to WR1 territory in his sixth season, Shanahan will be the guy to get it done.