Road to WR1: Puka Nacua

As the biggest surprise of the 2023 NFL season, Puka Nacua finished as the WR6 in fantasy despite beginning the year on the waiver wire of most leagues. Entering his second season, expectations will be completely different for the former fifth-round pick.

From his very first professional game, Nacua immediately turned heads in Cooper Kupp's absence with a 10-catch, 119-yard game. Any questions of his performance being a fluke were quickly put to bed once he saw 20 targets in Week 2 for 147 receiving yards.

By the end of the season, Nacua had racked up 105 receptions on 160 targets for 1,486 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The receiving yard total was enough for fourth in the league behind Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

In 2024, Nacua figures to be Matthew Stafford's No. 1 option with Kupp turning 31 in June and not playing a full season since 2021. Even in the games Kupp appeared in last season, Nacua still averaged nine targets per game, ahead of the 7.9 his star teammate saw.

How Puka Nacua can become the fantasy WR1

As long as Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are in Los Angeles, the Rams are going to run a pass-heavy offense. As long as that keeps happening, Nacua will be the primary beneficiary.

Stafford will be entering his age-36 season but threw for nearly 4,000 yards in 2023. Since 2011, Stafford has thrown over 500 pass attempts in each season he has played in 15 or more games and has notched over 300 completions in those years. In his two full seasons with Los Angeles, Stafford has guided his leading receiver to a top-10 finish in fantasy.

However, for Nacua to elevate above the pack as the overall WR1, he will need another vintage year from Stafford, who threw for just 24 touchdowns in 2023. That tally was still 12th among all quarterbacks but led to Nacua accounting for just six scores. Seven of the last 10 receivers to finish as the WR1 recorded 10 or more touchdowns in their crowning year.

Nacua's reported offseason training regimen focusing on his strength and conditioning is a positive sign for his WR1 aspirations given that he saw just eight red zone targets in 2023. That total is modest considering the season's top two fantasy receivers CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill saw 15 and 14 targets in that portion of the field, respectively.

With his monstrous target share and volume, Nacua provides the most value in PPR leagues but has WR1 upside across the board.