The 2023 NFL regular season comes to what many expect to be a dramatic end tonight as the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills in a battle for the AFC East title. Miami has already clinched a playoff spot while Buffalo is in a fight for its post-season lives.
If Buffalo wins they're in and take the AFC East crown. A Buffalo loss ends their season and strikes a harsh blow to Bills Mafia. Should tonight's game end in a tie or the Jaguars lose or tie in their game against the Titans then the Bills grab one of the final playoff spots. Capiche?
The playoff scenarios may be pretty straightforward, but Miami's ability to get the job done is clouded in uncertainty. It's looking more and more like both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle won't play in the final game of the regular season which would alleviate some defensive anxiety for the Buffalo coaching staff.
Even without the two stud weapons on offense for the Dolphins, Buffalo still has to contend with the likes of De'Von Achane and the dangerous Tyreek Hill and whatever coach Mike McDaniel has up his sleeve. It's likely players like running back Jeff Wilson Jr. along with wide receivers Braxton Berrios and Cedric Wilson Jr will have to step up in Mostert and Waddle's absence, but will they be enough against a Bills pass defense that allows less than 200 yards per game in the air?
Maybe not, but there's another offensive weapon in Miami that could have a bigger than usual day and makes for a great DFS value play tonight.
Durham Smythe, Miami Dolphins, TE
At 6'6" 246 pounds Durham Smythe is a huge target for Tua Tagovailoa yet with all the bright stars on the Dolphins offense the Miami tight end has been operating in the shadows all season. Not only has Smythe operated quietly all season behind the electricity of players like Achane, Hill & Mostert but he's just as quietly been on the Dolphins roster for six seasons and could complete his most productive season yet with a decent game tonight.
In the twelve games Smythe has seen the field this season he's garnered at least three targets in ten of them. Although yet to score a touchdown this season, the former fourth round pick has produced in big games including grabbing all five of his targets for 56 yards in the win against the Cowboys two weeks ago and hauling in all four of his targets for forty-one yards in the Week 4 loss to the Bills in Buffalo.
With no Mostert and receivers like Berrios and Wilson Jr having inconsistent seasons at best, Smythe will have to step up tonight as much more than a blocking tight end for Miami to capture their first AFC East title since 2008. Miami is 7-2 at home this season while the Bills are just 3-4 on the road.
Smythe carries a very favorable $3000 price tag on DraftKings leaving plenty of room on your DFS roster for guys like Josh Allen ($11,000), Hill ($11,200), Stefon Diggs ($10,200) and Tua ($10,000). Obviously monitor the latest updates on Mostert and Waddle, but even if one or both of them end up suiting up tonight I still like Smythe to possibly have his biggest game of the season tonight and quite possibly the most productive game of his career.