Road to QB1: Josh Allen

Josh Allen has been a fantasy superstar since taking over as the starting quarterback in Buffalo, never finishing outside of the top 10. Entering his seventh year as a professional, Allen will look to defend his QB1 status from 2023 with a new-look team around him.

For the past four seasons, Allen has thrived with Stefon Diggs as his go-to outside threat. Both rose to fantasy seniority in the process but in 2024, Diggs will be in Houston catching passes from CJ Stroud instead of Allen.

Along with Diggs, Allen will also lose his second-leading receiver from 2023 with Gabe Davis inking a lucrative deal with Jacksonville during free agency. Once the new season begins, Khalil Shakir will be the only returning receiver on the roster aside from tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

To say 2024 will be a unique challenge for Allen is an understatement but with his arm talent and rushing upside, the Wyoming product is always a candidate to defend his QB1 status.

How Josh Allen can repeat as the fantasy QB1

In 2023, Allen finished with over 400 total fantasy points per FantasyPros, nearly 40 more than the no. 2 finisher, Jalen Hurts. Much of Allen's production hinged on his career-high 15 rushing touchdowns that tied with Hurts for first in the league amongst quarterbacks.

Sustaining that rushing production will be key to another QB1 year but 15 touchdowns is almost certainly unsustainable. However, Allen recorded just 524 total rushing yards, his lowest since 2020. In both 2021 and 2022, Allen went over 700 rushing yards but saw his efficiency dip to just 4.7 yards per carry in his sixth season.

Improving on his rushing production will be key to a player like Allen maintaining his fantasy dominance. Buffalo's stellar offensive line is projected to be a top-10 unit by PFF in 2024 behind the return of standout tackles Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins. The unit lost starting center Mitch Morse, which put a dent in their chemistry but replaced him with former Cowboys starter Connor McGovern.

As a whole, the front line allowed just 12 sacks in 2023, an impressive feat. Part of that had to do with Allen's scrambling ability, which is only beneficial in fantasy. The line struggled more in the run game than pass protection but for Allen, who gains most of his yards from scrambles, that deficiency is hardly a nuissance.

The biggest question regarding Allen's potential success in 2024 will be with their receiving unit that will return just four of their top 10 pass-catchers from 2023. Obviously, no single player on the roster is expected to replace the production of Stefon Diggs but finding a reliable go-to option may be a struggle for the offense early on.

For Allen to remain as the top fantasy quarterback, Khalil Shakir, who impressed in moments in 2023, will assuredly need to take a third-year leap and most likely need to have a 1,000-yard season. As the third option in 2023, Shakir put up 611 yards on 39 receptions, both significant improvements from his modest rookie year.

Most of the hype and expectations are around rookie receiver Keon Coleman but regardless of the former Seminole's impact, Shakir will at worst need to be an elite no. 2 option for Allen to have another 4,000-yard season.

The road back to QB1 status will be tougher for Allen in 2024 but still feasible but he will need each of the other young assets on the Buffalo offense to exponentially build on their progression.