Road to RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs

There is a solid group of about five running backs going in the first round that all have a great chance at becoming 2024’s fantasy overall RB1. Jahmyr Gibbs is among that group and has a serious shot to be the one to emerge to the top among the group more than people realize.

Gibbs was drafted with the number twelve overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Alabama by the Detroit Lions. Many deemed this pick a huge reach. Gibbs was a great prospect coming out of college, but he seemed to have been overshadowed by Bijan Robinson, the superstar running back prospect from Texas.

Everyone who said Gibbs’ frame and play style would not allow him to be a possible bell-cow back was proved wrong in his rookie season. Yes, the Lions boasted a one-two-punch with Gibbs and David Montgomery, but during the period where Montgomery missed time, Gibbs did more than hold his own.

It was a small sample size of only two games in Weeks 7 and 8 where Montgomery missed time, but during these two games, Gibbs averaged a bell-cow workload of 25.5 touches per game. He also enjoyed a true breakout rushing game in Week 8, rushing for 152 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. This was also Gibbs’ fantasy breakout in general, as in weeks 7 - 11 (week 9 bye), he averaged 26.3 PPG — points per game — in PPR leagues. This included Montgomery being back and healthy in Week 10.

Even with the limited snaps, Gibbs still finished as the RB10 on the season in PPR, averaging 16.14 PPG on the season. In 15 games played, Gibbs put up 182 carries for 945 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 71 targets for 52 receptions, 316 yards and one receiving touchdown. That is encouraging production for a rookie splitting a backfield. The efficiency is the most impressive part, hitting 5.19 yards per carry.

Just to put a cherry on top, the Lions have boasted one of the league’s best offensive lines for a few years now, and that won’t be changing in 2024. Detroit brought back four out of five of their starters on the offensive line, and they debatably upgraded their one vacancy. Offensive guard Jonah Jackson is the one loss, but his play has gone down recently due to injuries. His replacement was Kevin Zeitler, who made the Pro Bowl in 2023 and is the opposite of injury prone. Zeitler logged 950 or more snaps in each of the last nine seasons.

The path for Jahmyr Gibbs to finish as the RB1

David Montgomery will still be a Lion in 2024, and yes he will still be heavily involved. However, Gibbs should get a much-increased role. Gibbs only averaged 56 percent of the snaps every week. That number is almost sure to go up to 60 percent or more this season.

A huge part of the workload that Gibbs was missing in 2023 was goal-line work and for most of the season a lot of work inside of the red zone. As the Lions try to prep Gibbs to become the true lead back, I expect him to get more goal-line work and work inside of the red zone.

The workload will likely not only go up as a whole in 2023 but also go up gradually throughout the season. Montgomery has an out in his contract after 2024, meaning he will likely not be a Lion in 2025. As the season progresses, Detroit will want to get Gibbs more and more acclimated to a full-time role.

I mentioned earlier that Gibbs’ YPC in his rookie season was at 5.19, which was third among all running backs (with at least 6.25 attempts or more per game) in 2023. He also filled a huge void that the Lions were missing in 2021 and 2022 — big play ability. Gibbs had 27 explosive runs (runs of 10+ yards) in 2023. 

Even without much of the goal line work, Gibbs still had 10 touchdowns. This was due to the fact that he had five touchdowns from outside of the ten-yard line, which is tied for the sixth most rushing touchdowns from outside of the ten-yard line among all players since 2021.

Gibbs’ 72 targets ranked eighth in the league and 52 receptions ranked ninth in the league among all running backs. As a college prospect, Gibbs’ receiving work was extremely touted, so this is not a surprise to anyone who paid attention during the 2023 draft cycle. His route tree is extremely advanced, which allows for him to not only be a safety net for quarterback Jared Goff, but also to create big plays with more creative running back routes. Expect the receiving volume to either stay the same or even slightly go up in 2024.

Gibbs passes the eye test on film with flying colors. He truly has the skill set to not only be the fantasy RB1 but be in the debate for the best running back in the league. Gibbs showcases elite speed, agility, explosiveness, and elusiveness. This mixed with his great vision and quick feet allowed him to see a hole open immediately and make a quick cut to burst through it and into open space. Once in open space, Gibbs is hard to take down.

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is among the most talented offensive minds in the NFL. Many expected him to take a head coaching job in the offseason. Instead, Johnson turned down a head coaching job from the Washington Commanders and decided to stay with the Lions to make another attempt at a Super Bowl before leaving to become a head coach. Johnson staying will only help Gibbs.

Gibbs has the talent and high-powered offense to take a sophomore leap and become the fantasy RB1. Now the question is, can he do it?