Road to WR1: AJ Brown

AJ Brown is already an elite NFL receiver and has been a consistent fantasy asset since the first day he stepped onto the field. He has yet to become the top receiver in fantasy football, something he can accomplish in his third year with Philadelphia.

Brown is one of the most physically imposing wide receivers in the entire league while being a talented route runner with great hands. He is one of the guys who can do just about everything from playing in the slot to beating any given cornerback on the outside.

Since joining Philadelphia and pairing up with Jalen Hurts in 2022, there are only two players who have more receiving yards than AJ Brown: Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. Brown also has one 100-catch season to go with a combined 18 touchdowns in the last two years. For the first nine weeks of the 2023 season, Brown was the No. 2 overall receiver, which included having six consecutive 100-yard games from weeks 3 through 8.

Unfortunately, Jalen Hurts was playing injured through the end of the season and the team as a whole took a hit. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception said that AJ Brown could have had 2,000 yards last season. Whenever Harmon makes a similar claim, ears perk up due to his proven track record.

The Eagles hired Kellen Moore as their new offensive coordinator for 2024, which should mean good things for the passing game in Philadelphia. Moore has five previous seasons as an offensive coordinator, and in four of them, his teams have finished in the top 10 in passing attempts. In three of those seasons, his teams finished top 11 in total yards, points, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. This trend should continue with a talented core of Hurts, Brown, Devonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley.

How AJ Brown can finally reach the overall WR1

While it is tough to say that a guy who has put up back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons has room to improve, there are some ways Brown could get more fantasy points for his managers.

The Eagles scored 46 touchdowns in 2023, 24 passing and 22 rushing which is a 1.09 ratio, while the league average was a 1.84 passing to rushing touchdown ratio. If this team can get closer to that league average, then Brown has a better chance of making it as the WR1. The hope is that with no Jason Kelce to orchestrate the Brotherly Shove/Tush Push, the Eagles will throw a little more closer to the endzone.

Brown has 11 and seven touchdowns in the past two seasons and is one of only nine wideouts to get double-digit touchdown receptions in a season in that time, so making sure he continues to push for the league lead in touchdowns will be important for him to break the seal that has capped him at the WR5 so far in his career.

The volume for Brown also has some room to grow; he has been eighth and 10th in targets the past two seasons in Philadelphia. Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson all have had over 170 targets in at least one of the last two seasons, and Brown should strive to join this upper echelon of receivers if he wants to reach the WR1 overall in 2024. Brown also saw his yards per catch go down from 17 YPC in 2022 to 13.7 YPC in 2023, so there is obviously some room for him to get closer to his 2022 form while also getting a larger share of targets from Hurts.

While we don’t need to see a massive amount of improvement from Jalen Hurts, it certainly would help AJ Brown’s chances if Hurts’ passing game took a step forward. We have seen both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson shift from rushing-oriented quarterbacks to more complete passers, improvements that turned them into annual MVP candidates. If Hurts can make a similar shift, we could see Brown and this entire offense reach a whole new level. 

For Brown, all he really needs to be able to reach that WR1 overall level is some minor improvements in how the offense as a whole operates. It feels like this could be the year he takes yet another leap and finally reaches the WR1, whether it is scoring more touchdowns or seeing just a little more volume.