Road to RB1: Jonathan Taylor

In 2021, Jonathan Taylor had a magical season where he had over 2,100 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns and took home the honor of being the RB1 in fantasy. Since then, he has struggled to stay healthy, missing 13 of a possible 34 games with a multitude of injuries.

Still only 25, there is no reason to believe Taylor shouldn’t be able to bounce back with a healthy season with a possibility of getting back to the peak we saw only three years ago. 

Part of the equation for an RB1 season for Taylor will be the health of his second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. They did not play a full game together last season after an offseason of Colts fans drooling over the potential of these two playing in the same backfield. Hopefully, we get to see these two playing behind PFF’s 3rd ranked offensive line coming into 2024, as there are fantasy points galore with this combo.

Head Coach Shane Steichen as a coordinator in Philadelphia had back-to-back years with his rushing offense being top-five in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns. In his first year with Indianapolis, the Colts were top-11 in all the same categories, and we can attribute that lowered volume to the injuries to Richardson and Taylor which led to the team trailing more often.

With a fully healthy backfield, we can expect to see a more run-heavy approach that is efficient and funneled through the team's two best players: Taylor and Richardson.

How Jonathan Taylor can become the fantasy RB1

To get back to the numbers from 2021, Taylor will likely need to see even more rushing volume than he did back then to re-claim RB1 status. While we believe Anthony Richardson should be an upgrade over Gardner Minshew, which should lead to the Colts winning more games, the way he wins is likely to be with his legs which can have a negative correlation with running back fantasy points.

Typically, when quarterback rushing attempts go up, running back fantasy points tend to go down. One of the main reasons for this is that rushing quarterbacks will look to run it themselves rather than throw a dump-off pass to a running back, lowering the receiving output for their backfield mates. The good news for Taylor is that this has never been a huge part of his game, as he averages just over two catches per game in his career, and that is not asking for a lot from Richardson to match.

Taylor has averaged just under 20 touches per game in his short career and in 2021, he averaged right around 22 touches per game, which is not a Derrick Henry-esque workload. If he can stay healthy we should expect 'JT' to be the focal point of the backfield as his running-mate from last season, Zach Moss, signed with the Cincinnati Bengals in free agency.

Following Moss' departure, Indianapolis did not add any other running back in free agency. This means Taylor's competition for touches will include a group of Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson; not a confidence-inspiring pack. Luckily, Taylor is such a talented back that he should inspire Shane Steichen to get him the ball the 380+ touches the RB1 overall has averaged the past five years.

While volume is nice, touchdowns are even better. In 2023, the Indianapolis Colts were one of three teams to score more touchdowns on the ground than through the air. The Colts were middle of the pack when it came to total touchdowns, though, and with more continuity and health we should expect this offense to improve which means a bigger pie available for Taylor to take his touchdowns.

The running back scored 38 percent of the Colts' touchdowns in 2021 and 27 percent in 2020, so we know he has a knack for finding the endzone. If Taylor is going to reclaim the RB1 mantle, he will have to continue to find a way to score touchdowns at a high rate as he did in his first two seasons. 

Overall, Taylor is well set up in this offense to recapture the RB1 title. If he can stay healthy alongside Richardson, he is more than talented enough and should have a solid opportunity to put up the stats necessary to be the fantasy RB1.